Andre Gomes Available Picks

June, 05 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Boston Celtics -2.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

Most of the favoritism for the Lakers come from the run or the momentum they've created in this playoffs. They just needed 15 games to reach the final in a wild Western conference, instead of Boston which needed 20 games to find their path. That's for me the best explanation to understand why the Lakers are the favorites, which there is a factor which has been ignored. The factor is that Boston has the momentum on their side and this momentum comes from their last game, as they needed 7 games to beat Atlanta and Cleveland, but in the conference final against Detroit, they won the last two games, including the last one on the road. This creates momentum and it would be different if Boston went again to a Game 7 again against Detroit, as the team confidence wouldn't be the same for sure.

The Lakers have the best offense in the postseason with 105.9 ppg, but we can't forget they've played against Denver and Utah in the first two rounds, which are teams with the same style of LA. Even though the Lakers won the series by 4-1, we cannot forget the pivotal Game 1, in which if the Spurs could have maintained their lead of more than 20 points in the 2nd half. On the other side, Boston had to face two opponents of the same A class defense they play: Cleveland and Detroit. Those two series were extremely physical and it's important to remember that the Lakers are 54-10 when they score more than 100 points, but they are 3-15 when they can't reach that mark. After the Gasol trade, they are 2-6 in this situation.

For me, the main matchup will be Gasol vs Perkins. Gasol has been the key of the Lakers, the player who Kobe passes the ball when he is being double teamed. His numbers in the playoffs are good and in theory he will have the edge in this matchup. However we cannot forget the momentum which Perkins carries from the series against Detroit, something as much Gasol and Odom try to be aggressive, they will never reach the level of aggressiveness of Detroit's frontcourt.Boston had a +3.1 rebounding edge per game during the regular season, good for the third best rebounding margin in the NBA. The Lakers finished with a modest +1.3 rebounding edge.But in this postseason, Boston has continued to dominate the boards (+3.2 per game), even against other strong rebounding teams like the Pistons and Cavs. Meanwhile, the Lakers rank 14th out of 16 teams in the playoffs.

Kobe Bryant can't be stopped, as it's impossible thanks to this skill and his form right now, however, Boston will try to limit his scoring. But Ray Allen comes to this final, not in struggle mode, but in the opposite way. In the Game 5 of the series against Detroit, he made 9-15 FG 5-6 3pts and 29 points. Also in the Game 6 he made 6-12 FG in a 17 points performance. At last, I have to talk about Pierce, he won't have such a strong defender, as he had Prince in the series against Detroit. His matchup with Radmanovic is clearly favorable to Boston.

The Celtics are 35-6 at home during the regular season. They are 10-1 at home in the playoffs and having just 2.5 points to cover doesn't show how important is the frontcourt edge of Boston over the Lakers and the momentum the Celtics bring to this game.