Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 06 2008 8:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 183.5 (-120)
WIN for +3.33 unit(s)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Game 1 of this series which started later than expected, thanks to the epic series Boston had against Atlanta. However the Hawks were slaughtered in the Game 7 by 99-65 and this monster defensive performance of Boston in this game will be important for what Boston will need to do in this series. Boston only allowed Atlanta to shoot 24-82 (29.3%) FG and if we look to the last home games of Boston, it's impressive how Boston's opponents are stopped so well in the offense by the Celtics. Atlanta didn't score more than 85 points in the four games they played at Boston, but of course today Boston will face Cleveland and not Atlanta, so I have to mention that the defense of the Cavs isn't the same from Atlanta. The Cavs eliminated the Wizards in six games and they had an impressive defensive performance in the last game of the series, which was played in Washington. They only allowed the Wizards to score 88 points and to shoot 37-78 (39.7%) FG. In that game the Cavs won by 105-88 and the team was very good in the 3pts shooting with 11-24. Wally with 6-13 and Gibson with 4-6 were the main responsible for the good 3pts shooting night of the Cavs in that game. Today with this being the first game of this series, it's important to remember that the Cavs have two former Celtics players (West and Wally), who may struggle tonight thanks to that. Actually in the only game Wally has played at Boston this season, he finished it with 3-13 FG. On the other side, Gibson played three games against Boston this season and he shot a combined of 10-29 FG. However everything goes around Lebron, we all know that, but if the supporting cast doesn't help him, Lebron can't win games alone. In the last game between these two teams in the regular season and the only use it should matter for the analysis of this game, as it was the only one played after the trades, Boston won at home by 92-87, in a game which had a line of 191.5 and for the ones with good memory, I took the under in that game. Boston scored just 92 points even though they shot 52.3% FG, which shows how slow the pace of the match was, with Boston being capable to slow down Lebron, as he needed 24 FG shots to score 26 points. The same should happen today, as Lebron will struggle in this series as I've explained in my preview for this series. In my technical research I've found some curious trends that support the under for this game: BOSTON is 29-17 UNDER after a win by 10 points or more this season. BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER in home games after allowing 85 points or less this season. CLEVELAND is 15-5 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. With both teams coming from amazing defensive performances in their last game, they will come to this game with that defensive momentum. The line is a little bit higher than I was expecting it for this series, as I would say the limit would be 180/182 points, which will the line for the following games if there are no major surprises tonight. This line is just 183.5 points, because of the fact this will be the first game of the series. So, I'm taking the under in here.