Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 04 2008 1:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 190 (-110)
WIN for +3.64 unit(s)

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics

Today is the 7th and decisive game of this series and I wasn't expecting this series to have so many games and I would call crazy to a person who told before the series that this would go to a 7th game. But the truth is that the series is 3-3 right now and this game will decide everything. I think Boston will easily win it, but simply I don't like the line offered by the bookies. Atlanta comes to this game in better conditions than in the previous games and with the spread being the same from the other games at Boston, the value doesn't exist in Boston. So I studied the totals in this matchup. Atlanta in the five games they have played this season at Boston has never shot better than 42.9% FG. I can even show you all the numbers of the Hawks in their games at Boston this season:

83 pts 30-70FG 42.9%
88 pts 32-81FG 39.5%
81 pts 28-69FG 40.6%
77 pts 23-60FG 38.3 %
85 pts 29-76FG 38.2 %

Today with the intensiveness of Boston at their higher level will prevent Atlanta to do better than that and what is worrying me is the FT Atlanta has been shooting in this series. The Hawks attempted 71 more free throws than the C's over the first six games of the series. In its three wins, the No. 8 seed in the East held a 107-65 edge, including a 47-25 advantage in Friday night's Game 6 in Atlanta. Doc Rivers last night pointed to another huge free throw discrepancy. The Hawks attempted almost twice as many free throws (47-25) as the Celtics, and scored 11 of their 24 fourth-quarter points from the line. A call by referee Bob Delaney on Paul Pierce, who fouled out on an off-the-ball hold of Zaza Pachulia while Josh Childress was converting a drive, had the Celtics muttering under their breath about gratuitous calls 45 minutes after the game ended. Today I don't believe this will happen with the game being played at Boston that the referees will call so many fouls in favor of Atlanta. The first referee will be the same from the Game 6 and with the pressure Doc Rivers put on him, I believe the referee won't handle the pressure and Atlanta won't have more than 40 FT attempts again. And that's the key for Boston in this game, stop the penetrations of the young Hawks and all staff of the Celtics is aware of that.

"At the end of the day it's our defense," Rivers said. "They've done well offensively. Some of it is their quickness. But we should have just as much energy."

"They are quicker than us, we knew that going in," Rivers said. "That's a lot of why they're getting to the line. But we're driving as well, and we're not getting to the line. In the three games they won the discrepancy was huge (in free throws), but we have to be better defensively. A lot of those plays are coming out of loose ball situations and offensive rebounds. Both areas we can improve in."

With this game being played earlier than usual, it will be normal that both teams will come to this game a little bit rusty in the attack and they will concentrate most of their energies in the defense, which will be the key to get the win today. With the series being all on the line today, no doubt this is the best opportunity in this series to cash an under in this matchup. Take the under in here.