Getting Value Out of Heavy Faves in MLB

by: Nite Owl Sports

By this point of the season, anyone who bets MLB on a daily basis has probably already seen > 100 games where they look at the match-up of teams and starting pitchers, and decide they really like the favorite, until they see a money line price tag of 180>, often-200>. Anyone who has been betting on MLB very long knows that betting these pricey heavy faves is a quicker way to the poorhouse than the penthouse. So what do you do when you see on or more of these games on any day’s MLB card?  Rather than “pass” on them, there are some alternate types of bets that should be considered in order to get some line value out of the game. But before we start, we’d like to make it clear that in order to utilize most of our alternative betting strategies for these types of games, you will need to have access to 5 inning “-1/2 run lines” (where the fave must be ahead by at least one run after 5 innings, and a tie after 5 innings loses) and individual team totals lines for each team. While we are not in the business of recommending any particular sports books, we will say that many local “bookies” and even some offshore books don’t have lines for these types of non-mainstream MLB bets, but there are some offshore books that do, such as Bookmaker.com (formerly known as CRIS).

The one thing that we try to avoid in our search to get some line value out of these games is betting home faves on the full game (-1.5) run line. As we pointed out in our winning 3 unit free pick on the Minny Twins in Friday’s newsletter, a one run lead by the home team after 8.5 innings results in not only a win for the home team, but a lost at bat for the home team and a loss for run line bettors backing that team. We’ve also seen a number of games where a home fave goes into the top of the ninth with a two run lead, and the visiting team gets a man on base with one or none out, and the home team pays little attention to that runner, knowing he does not represent even a tying run, and not caring that he represents the “losing run” for run line bettors who have backed the home fave.

On the other hand, we sometimes will bet a heavy road fave on the –1.5 run line, because they don’t lose their at bat in the ninth inning, no matter what the score, and in an extra inning game, the fact that they go ahead by a run in the top of the inning does not end the game or even the inning, with the road team often getting a multi-run inning and wining an extra-inning games by two runs or more. Contrast that to the situation where a home fave on the run line scores the go ahead run in the bottom of an extra inning, the game is over and the run line bet is lost.

A good example of a game to use a run line bet (and some of our alternate bets) on a heavy road fave is today’s match-up (actually mis-match) between Milwaukee (with “stud” CC Sabathia on the hill) and Atlanta (with below average SP Morton, who has a ridiculous 10.7 ERA in home starts TY and an even worse ERA of 14 in his last 3 home starts, coughing up 19 ER in just 11.2 IP in those three train wrecks) – only an idiot manager like Atlanta’s Booby Cox would continue using this guy in a starting role. In a pitching mis-match like this, featuring a SP for our team (Milw) who is not only 2-0 for an ERA of 0.5 in his two away starts for his new team since switching leagues, and who has pitched 3 complete games in his 3 starts for Milw, we are not reluctant to lay the –1.5 runs on the heavy road fave at a much better “price” of –110 or -115, either in addition to or in lieu of laying the heavy money line price of –180 or –185. But it doesn’t stop there, as we have opportunities for other types of bets on Brewers which will take advantage of this pitching mis-match. For example, Milw is only –125 on the aforementioned 5 inning run line. Does anyone seriously think that with this pitching mis-match the “Crew” won’t be ahead by at least a run after 5 innings? Then there are the individual team totals lines for each team, which have not yet been posted by the “books” but which we can estimate at 4.5 runs for Milw and 4 runs for Atl, based on the full game totals line of 8.5 runs for this game and Milw being a heavy favorite. While the Brew Crew might not explode for 9 runs like they did last night in Atlanta, they don’t have to do that in order to win this bet – five runs against a crappy SP like Atlanta’s Morton is definitely within reason and is thus makes Brewers over 4.5 runs a very attractive option for this game. Another option, also on the individual team totals line, is to bet Atlanta under 4 runs, as braves struggle vs LHPs like Sabathia (just 4 RPG, even at home), and this is the first time that many of their players will have batted against him, given his long stint for Cleve in the AL and only one career start vs Atlanta (two or three years ago) in inter league play. But we would go light on that play, and only if line is 4 (pass if 3.5 runs), as Atlanta is 13-4 in home day games and has scored much better in day games (5.5 RPG) than after dark (just 4 RPG). So with this game, we would recommend a betting “attack strategy” such as the following:

2 units on Milw on money line at –184

2 units on Milw on full game run line at –1.5 runs and –115 odds

2 units on Milw on 5 inning (-1/2) run line

3 units on Brewers over 4.5 runs on the individual team totals line

one unit on Atl under 4 runs on the individual team totals line

TOTAL of 10 UNITS on Milw, with “exposure” spread around by using 5 different bets

The above analysis of today’s Milw-Atl game is typical of how we analyze these MLB games, recognizing the strong points of our side but also being realistic about the weak points, and then trying to devise a betting “attack strategy” which will give our clients the highest % play(s) by attacking the line(s) which appear(s) to be most vulnerable, in this case by making our biggest play on Milwaukee over on the individual team totals line. While we recognize that we can’t make official picks on the 5 inning line or individual team totals lines on this site, we also realize that many of our clients do have offshore accounts and thus have access to these types of lines, and that they, like us, just want to know what “angle(s)” give(s) them the best chance of winning and the best “risk to reward” value for their money. So we provide that in our write ups, and in doing so give our clients more “bang for their buck” than they have ever gotten from any other sports service – all we ask is that you keep that in mind the next time you are trying to decide whose picks or packages you will be buying for any given day, weekend, week, month or season.

This article is copyrighted by Nite Owl Sports for its exclusive use and that of Top Ten Cappers

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