Pointspread Pros - Top Ten Cappers Handicapper

Pointspread Pros Snapshot
NFL and NBA specialists

Computer predictions that crush the books
Take the judgment out!

About Pointspread Pros

Hitting over 60% in the NBA the last month!...Get on board!

My Handicapping and Betting Philosophy

My theory on handicapping is that you aren't betting against the "line" per se, you are betting against what the ill-informed public "thinks" the line should be. My computer systems are designed to take out public perception and show which games have value because the public has either over or under estimated that team. Let me explain further.When the line is made, the oddsmakers are factoring in what the public just saw the previous week. Yes, they also have power ratings and other things factored, but then they adjust what they think the true line is for what they believe the public thinks. Here is where you will get an advantage in using my computer systems. Unlike the public, who the majority of the time will pick up the sports page, see what the team did the previous week, and then make their bets based on one week of data, my systems evaluate ALL the games played and as the season wears on, re-evaluates past performances.This gives us a more accurate measure of a team’s strength and will thus point out where the public is wrong and where you can profit from it. It is very much like pari-mutuel betting at the racetrack. The early morning odds are what the oddsmaker believes the chance of a horse winning, but after the public gets their chance to bet, you can see big changes in the odds. So if you have an efficient system that can show you what the true odds should be, you can then see where the public is off and you can maximize your winnings.After analyzing which statistics in an NFL game contribute the most in determining the spread winner, I have written 17 computer programs that analyze an NFL game from different perspectives. It took me years of trial and error to find out which systems were keepers and which showed me no value. What I have now are the 17 programs that have shown to me that they add value in determining which team is going to cover the spread. By themselves, my programs had to win at least 55% of the time or I threw them out. I tested each program using a 10-year history of box score data to make sure of their validity. What I found was the true power of the system was when 10 or more of these programs picked a game as a BEST BET.Since 1998, when this occurs the record from weeks 6-17 is a very profitable (117–64 or 64%). These games will be my 5-unit plays, and wil consit of 10 or more programs picking the game as a BEST BET.Since my system is purely statistical, I advise all my clients to go very small on wagers until week 6, since teams change so much from year to year, we need a solid five weeks of data before being able to confidently tell you which teams to bet. The top 5-unit plays have been around since 1998, I bet my hard earned money on every one. So you can take comfort in knowing I am out there with you!Last year (2006) I debuted a new system called The NFL Game Simulator. I wanted to design something using completely different data from the 5-unit system (which uses box score only). It is designed to run a game simulation between two teams and then tells us after 1000 games played, which team covered the spread, and at what percent of the time. For example, if Dallas played the Giants and Dallas was favored by three, the system will play out the game using all the play-by-play data from the current season and then tell us: Dallas covered the 3-point spread 57.5% of the time. With any system, you need to test it for at least five years to see if it has any merit, but I am pleased to tell you that last year (2006), the top four picks from the Simulator went (34 – 20) from weeks 4 – 17.

My Handicapping Experience

Handicapping professionally since 1998. Prior to that I handicapped for myself designing and testing handicapping methods with the use of the computer.

My Special Achievments in Handicapping

Finished 4th (NFL) Ultimate Handicapping Challenge in '2000 (64% win rate).Finished 6th (NFL) Ultimate Handicapping Challenge in '2004 (60% win rate).Finished 10th (NFL) Ultimate Handicapping Challenge in '2006 (55% win rate).Have compiled an NFL record of 117 - 64 (64%) ATS since 1998 from weeks 6 - 17.

My Most Memorable Moment

Being mentioned on a Las Vegas internet radio show as a Service that has consistently been one of the leaders in the 2000 Ultimate Handicapping Challenge.

Biggest Win of my Career

Betting New England +14 (and the moneyline) vs. St. Louis in the Super Bowl.

Toughest Loss of my Career

Needing ANY points to be scored in overtime of the St. Louis Cardinals vs. NY Giants sometime in the late 80’s. And I believe Danello missed three field goals and Jim Baaken missed one and it ended in a tie. I still haven’t gotten over that one.

Favorite Team(s) to Play or Fade

My systems LOVE THE UNDERDOGS, and in a lot of cases, the underdogs my system gives win outright, so the money line can also be used to maximize your wins.

What You Can Expect From Me

Honesty – no outrageous claims, documented proof my system can deliver. Consistent results – At the Pro Handicapping Challenge, very few handicappers crack the Top 10 more than once. We did it TWICE, finishing 4th and 6th at 60% or better both times.I will be a teammate - I’m not a tout, just a person like you who loves to win. The only difference is I have spent countless hours of my spare time to develop quality computer systems that I know can help us be profitable. I bet every game I grelease - we are in this together.I will offer an unmatched work ethic – I am always striving to make my systems better. I am never satisfied and you can be sure every pick I give you will have the backing of over 20 years of hard work.

"Persistence and work ethic are the keys to achieving success in anything."

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