I am primarily a situational handicapper, but at the same time I also look for value, as long as I think the value play has a good chance to win (because getting good “value” on losing bets may cut your losses, but sure won’t make you any money). I almost never bet with my heart, certainly nothing substantial, as evidenced by fact that I have probably bet against my Alma Mater (Stanford) more than I have bet on them, especially last season, when betting against them was “like stealing.”

I have been betting pretty regularly on all of the major sports for over 20 years – FB more like 30 years, hoops about 25, MLB about 20 and hockey more like 15 and (ii) recently I have gotten into betting more “under the radar” sports like Arena FB and WNBA, where lines are “softer” because books don’t get much action on it.

30+ years of sports handicapping.

Franco Harris’ “immaculate reception,” which turned what looked like a sure loss on the Steelers into a one point miracle win/cover at Pick ‘em. I only had $50 on the game (thus just a ‘swing of $105 on the immaculate reception play) but I had not been betting for very long and I wanted to see Al Davis and his Raiders lose, so the “rush” I got from that play has never been equaled for me, and probably never will, except for maybe the first time I ever checked out the “red light district” in Amsterdam, but that’s another story.

In my more than 30 years of sports handicapping, I have had some very memorable wins, but the following three really stick out as truly unforgettable.
The first one was in the NBA about 15-20 years ago, when they used to play "three game delights" (where a team had to play on three consecutive nights, often with travel). While most players blindly went against the “tired team,” playing its third game in three nights, there was no value in that “system” because all the sportsbooks would routinely give the tired team about five extra points. More significantly, the supposedly tired teams actually had a winning record against the spread in this situation over a period of years. So I developed a system where if the sequence of the three games was home-road-home or road-road-home, and the road team in game 2 had won game 1, especially if it was a run-and-gun type of game and/or went to OT, the play would be on its opponent in game 2 of the set. And if the home team in game 2 was rested, and/or if game 3 of the set (back at home for the road team in game 2) was a big game for them, then the play would be stronger.
This system resulted in the biggest bet of my handicapping career ($500) to that point, and it was on the Seattle Sonics, over the Utah Jazz, who had just won an OT game at home over Dallas the night before, and had another big game at home against the Lakers the next night. But in the interim, the Jazz had to travel to Seattle to face a rested Sonics team anxious to avenge an earlier butt-whipping at Utah. Result: Seattle at (-7) won by about 40, leading by about 30 points at the half. This matchup was truly a situational handicapper’s dream, with the sun, moon and all planets in exactly the right alignment. By the way, three game delights were eliminated from scheduling the next season, by request of the NBA Players Association.Equally unforgettable was my “trifecta” of wagers on the 1987 National Championship Game between my Penn State Nittany Lions (who I have been a fan of ever since I was a kid – my Dad was captain of the Penn State basketball team in 1935) and the universally despised Miami Hurricanes, who showed up for the Fiesta Bowl showdown wearing US Army “fatigues,” cocky as ever, and then walked out of the pre-game banquet for both teams, led by their “eloquent” and loud-mouthed “spokesperson” Jerome Brown (may he rest in peace) and his famous “speech” about the “Japanese (not) sitting down for dinner with Pearl Harbor before they bombed ‘em.” Miami was a seven-point favorite, and I think the total was in low or mid 40s, too high for a game involving State’s killer defense. I bet $150 on State at +7, $50 on State on the moneyline (which I think was about +350), $100 on the UNDER, and a $50 par of State at +7 to the UNDER. The game was a classic defensive battle, as I predicted, but there was so much excitement and drama that it was very exciting despite the low score, especially when Miami threatened to tie or win (with a TD and two-point conversion) at the end, but Penn State ended it with their fourth INT of the game off of “my cousin Vinnie” (Testaverde) and was crowned undisputed National Champions for the 1986 college FB season as a result of their 14-7 “upset win” and easy under. Oh, and by the way, I won all of my wagers, for a total of $555.My third huge win (and the biggest, dollar-wise) was on the UNDER and Cincinnati in the infamous "Cold Bowl" in 1980s, where Cincy beat the San Diego "Super Chargers" in arctic-like conditions, with game time temp of –10 to –15 degrees and wind chill at –25 to –30 degrees. I had heard an early weather forecast predicting these conditions, and called up my local bookie on Tuesday for his opening line on the game, to which he responded "the game’s not until Sunday, you’ll have to wait until Thursday." Since I knew all the value would be gone on the UNDER by then (by which time the betting public would know about the predicted weather conditions) and the totals line would be about 43 rather than the opening line of 50 which was based on SD’s prolific offense and its classic high-scoring (41-38, I think) OT win in Miami the week before, I called him again and told him I needed an early line because I had been asked to place a large bet for a "high roller friend" who was going out of the country on business for the week and had advanced me the money including the juice if he lost. He gave me a line of Cincy at (-4), with a total of 50. I bet his max of $500 on under 50, and $300 on Cincy at (-4), reasoning that San Diego’s passing and precision offense could not function in such conditions but Cincy’s more balanced attack could, and would control the ball and the game. I also threw in a $50 parlay of Cincy (-4) to UNDER 50. Although I originally intended to try for a "middle" by betting back some of the $50/UNDER on the OVER if the line came down as much as I predicted (to 43 or 44) and the weather was not as severe as originally predicted, I got "stuck" holding the full $500 when my local bookie took the total off the board once he heard the weather forecast. He did not put it back up until game day, and then at 45½, so I just rode it out. When Cincy drove 75 yards in about two minutes on its opening drive, I ended up spending the rest of the first quarter "on the can," for obvious reasons. But all’s well that ends well, with Cincy winning 27-7 (and my bets and parlay winning, for a total of $930) and SD’s offense being ground to a halt by the sub-freezing conditions. By the way, the next season, in a rematch in SD in a Monday night game in 65 degree weather, SD won 53-34. My bookie said he’d like to meet my "high roller friend" sometime, but the meeting never quite got arranged.

As is obvious from the above, I love to talk about my big wins—who doesn’t? But big losses are another matter. Maybe I’m guilty of having a selective memory, but the only big loss I can remember suffering was on an MLB game about 15 years ago. The Milwaukee Brewers still played in the AL, and their ace Teddy Higuera was pitching against the local Angels, who were not very good (I forget was pitching for angels). I think I laid $225 at –150, to win $150. For whatever reason(s) Higuera was just not his usual self, Milwaukee could not catch a break, and the Angels did (get some breaks) winning 4-2. What made it worse, I went to the game and not only had to witness this debacle, but had to “take one for the team” by pretending (for my son’s enjoyment) that I was actually having a good time and rooting for the Angels.

I am a situational handicapper, so I have no loyalties and thus will often bet on one team one week and against them the next, although I have been known (in college FB, not NFL) to “ride” hot teams until they lose and fade cold teams until they win or start to cover inflated spreads. However, I do like teams and coaches that are predictable in certain situations, especially with coaches (like State’s Paterno) who have been around forever. I do remember for a stretch of time during the 70’s, I would usually bet against Stanford whenever they were favored by at least a TD after an upset win, and on them whenever they were a “dog” of three or more points after suffering an upset loss as a home fave of seven or more or road fave of three or more. This simple system for betting on and against a team which many thought was hopelessly unpredictable and for years was described as a “coach’s nightmare and a psychiatrist’s dream” was very profitable for me. Presently one team I have been forced to largely avoid last two years is USC, especially at home with its mammoth point spreads in the mid to high 30s, where they could win by 50 –60 points if they wanted to, but don’t, and a win vs. a loss is determined by whether USC’s fourth string offensive unit scores a “meaningless” TD in the last few minutes of the game. One situation where I did well on SC, however, was in their two “loaded” seasons (2004 and 2005), especially 2005, where it seemed that whenever they went on the road and played a decent team, they would dig themselves into a deep hole in the first half, go into the locker room facing a sizable enough deficit that they were actually “getting points” using the second half line to create an adjusted game line, then came back in the second half to win the game and cover the second half bet (but of course not the full game bet at the pre-game price). This actually happened in their games in 2005 at Oregon, Ariz State and Notre Dame, and the year before at Stanford. Other teams I can remember avoiding in previous years were the NY Knicks in NBA for about three years during early 90s. and some of the “mid-major’ conferences in college hoops like the MAC (too many teams, with most teams too erratic for my taste). I also don’t like betting very many games in the college hoops conference tournaments or the NIT in March – too many games in too short a period of time, although I do have a very reliable system in college hoops conference tournaments which generates about 5-10 plays each year and regularly hits 60-70%, so that’s about all the college hoops I play during that one week “extravaganza.”

As stated earlier, I am primarily a situational handicapper, looking also for “value plays.” Therefore, I usually avoid the high-profile games, where the lines are sharp and there is little betting value, but the “masses of asses” love betting these games because they watch them with their buddies on TV, and want to be able to brag to their friends and co-workers about how much they won on MNF or on the Texas-Okla game. You might even get some complaints about me avoiding the games that “the people want” and instead picking games that have profitable situations and value but not much “sex appeal.” Although maybe I am not being a good salesperson by avoiding most of the games where there is so much public betting interest, I would rather be an honest handicapper, doing my thing and trying to make my clients some money the best way I know, rather than a “tout” who always has a pick on every big game but only actually wins about half of his plays. In looking for value plays, I often look for important but overlooked stats and factors, as well as types of specialty bets to use in minimizing exposure to one or more weaknesses (e.g., in a team/pitcher I like) while taking advantage of their strengths. As indicated to you recently, I believe my first article will be on this subject. While I realize I will be monitored only on full game bets and I don’t want to appear too “out there” to potential purchasers of my picks by promoting lots of specialty bets, I will mention those opportunities in my write-ups, with an explanation of why I like them in that particular situation. I guess much of my appeal in this regard is to potential clients who are more sophisticated and ‘seasoned” handicappers with the attitude of “tell me something that I don’t already know.” I also won’t have a lot of plays, but it differs from one day or weekend to the next. I may have three releases on one day in MLB, and then none the next two days because I just don’t like any match-ups that much, even though I may have spent just as much time those two days deciding to “stay in the dugout” as I did on that day when I “stepped out” and had three plays. It’s similar in FB, where I tend to have more plays in college than pro, and very few pro plays in the first three weeks. I may have a Saturday where I release seven college FB plays, but then only one or two NFL plays on Sunday, while staying “on the sidelines” for MNF.