- Jim Kruger Snapshot
- College football specialist!
- Selectivity is the name of the game
- Few picks but great winning %
About Jim Kruger
Get Kruger's Thursday NBA Winner! Kruger was #1 in NBA Totals Plays at the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma this year, 66-36, 64.7%!
My Handicapping and Betting Philosophy
I am pretty anal when it comes to handicapping. I literally look at almost every aspect of handicapping that you can. It depends on what sport I am handicapping for how much each area is emphasized. I am big on fundamentals and matchups. I also use situational handicapping and do look at trends and systems that I consider viable and logical.
My Handicapping Experience
Actually, I started handicapping as a kid growing up in Kansas City, but didn’t realize that was what I was doing. I found myself trying to determine who would win a game and by how much through examination of statistics and personnel. I always loved math and numbers and had a lot of fun trying to improve on my “predictions.” I started betting on sports in 1988.
My Special Achievments in Handicapping
Making it to the quarterfinals in the invitation-only World Series of Handicapping this past year and winning the Ultimate Handicapping Challenge for the NBA rank high on my list, but the main achievement I am most proud of is of having very successful years in every sport that I have handicapped. I believe that being well rounded is the mark of an excellent handicapper. In my opinion, the long-term successful capper has to realize that every sport has certain aspects of it that requires each sport to be handicapped differently.
Most recently, I was the No. 1 capper for net units won in 2006 in college football as monitored by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma (TSM). I also finished No. 3 this previous season in net units won in the NBA as monitored by TSM and No. 12 in college hoops.
I tied for fourth place out of over 300 contestants in the Las Vegas Leroy’s College Challenge Football Contest in 2006.
Finishing in first place in the NBA by over a 2-1 margin in 2003-04 at TSM in net units won is something I am very proud of.
My Most Memorable Moment
After making it to the quarterfinals, being eliminated from the World Series of Handicapping on a last-second stupid half-time bet that I made.
Biggest Win of my Career
Georgia over Boise State in Week 1 in the 2005 season. Boise was No. 18 in the nation and closed as a seven-point dog. I made Georgia my highest rated play and then crushed Boise, 48-13. The game wasn’t even as close as the final score.
Toughest Loss of my Career
The first game of the 2005 NBA season had Dallas visiting Phoenix. Avery Johnson was starting his first full season as the Mav’s head coach and in doing my research I determined that Dallas was not going to run with Phoenix. Add to the fact that Amare Stoudemire, the Suns center who loves to run was being replaced by much slower Kurt Thomas in the starting lineup. The total opened up at 217. I jumped on the UNDER and made it the highest rated play that I have. The first half was under 100, only 41 points were scored in the third quarter. I had the UNDER won by a huge margin. Well, that is until the game went into overtime. The teams were tied after one OT period and I still had the UNDER won by a comfortable margin. I still thought I had the UNDER won in the second OT but some late intentional fouling cost me my UNDER by two points. That was the most I had ever bet, even as the total moved down. It really hurt as it was the correct call by light years, but I still ended up losing.
Favorite Team(s) to Play or Fade
I look at all teams in all divisions. Smaller conferences in college basketball are a favorite of mine as the linesmaker cannot keep up as closely with them and subsequently lines have more of a tendency to be off. Individual teams will vary by season in all sports. You try to catch a team on the up or downside before the linesmaker does.
What You Can Expect From Me
I work extremely hard at handicapping, it is my only job. I bet all of my own bets - my money is where my mouth is. I will not release a pick just for the sake of having a play. Winning at sports betting requires discipline and not having the fear to go against the crowd. I’m not going to win every play, but in the long run I will have more winners than losers. My track record proves this. I believe in honesty, integrity and treating people the way I would like to be treated.
"Work hard, work smart, work fast."
Don't Make Assumptions!
In last week's article I looked for teams that were out of a normal routine, having a change in their pattern. The results were ...read more
Changing a Team's Routine
This week I haven’t yet found a juicy 90% angle like I wrote about last week with our spread winner on UNLV over BYU. But, ...read more
Who Covers? Losing or Winning Teams?
Last week we looked at teams who were on a winning streak and still undefeated. The three different trends we highlighted finished ...read more
Are Undefeated College Teams Overvalued?
”The Upset Special” was the favorite menu item this past week at the College Football Diner as three of the top five ...read more
Does Overtime Affect a Team’s Next Game?
Every handicapper has their own style, their own methodology in handicapping games. I look at each sport using different variations ...read more
Jim Kruger Picks For Sale
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Jim Kruger Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Tuesday June 17, 2008 9:00 pm
Take Boston over LA <p> In Game 5, the LA bigs played their best game of the series with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom combining for 39 points, 14 of 20, and 24 rebounds. While there is a reasonable chance they will have another good game as it appears Kendrick Perkins, ... read more
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers Sunday June 15, 2008 9:05 pm
The pace has remained fairly consistent in each of the first four games. Three of the four games have gone UNDER the lined total. Except for the game where Boston shot below 35%, they other two games went UNDER by an average of 4.5 points. I just don’t see Boston coming ... read more
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers Thursday June 12, 2008 9:00 pm
Take the Celtics +7.5 over LA Either team could have legitimately won any of the first three games in this series. Comebacks and runs have been common so far. If you are a Laker fan or backer, in my mind you should be disappointed or at the least have trepidations and ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Sunday June 8, 2008 9:00 pm
Take the OVER in LA-Boston!<p>LA only committed 8 turnovers in Game 1. After shooting 50% in the first half, they only shot 33% on 13-39 for the rest of the game, 5 for 20 in the fourth quarter. The Lakers were killed on the boards, 33 to 46, with the margin even ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Thursday June 5, 2008 9:00 pm
Take Boston over LA Thursday The play of Kendrick Perkins against the Pistons was impressive, especially his hustle. It was helped by the excellent penetration of Rajon Rondo and the Detroit defense rotating over. Perkins will be on Pau Gasol. Stopping Gasol’s ... read more
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Friday May 30, 2008 8:30 pm
Take Detroit over Boston <p> Detroit is 6-0 straight-up and against-the-spread over the past 5 seasons when facing an elimination game at home. Rip Hamilton is going to be in the line-up tonight after hyper-extending his elbow Wednesday. He has had two days of therapy. ... read more
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers Thursday May 29, 2008 9:00 pm
Take San Antonio-LA Lakers UNDER 194 <p> San Antonio’s offense has been the main reason the Spurs are down in this series. Three of the four games the Spurs have held the Lakers to a below 100 defensive efficiency rating. In those games LA is shooting ... read more
NBA Basketball
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics Wednesday May 28, 2008 8:30 pm
Take the UNDER in Detroit-Boston Three of the four games in the Eastern Championship Series have gone UNDER the total. All three of those games had one team with an offensive efficiency rating below 100. The one game that went over had both teams shooting within 1.5% of 50% from ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs Sunday May 25, 2008 8:30 pm
Take San Antonio over LA
The Spurs couldnt have played a worse game in Game 2 than if they tried. They shot below 35%, allowed LA to shoot almost 55%, and had half as many trips to the free throw line as the Lakers. This came after their meltdown in Game 1 where they had a 20 ... read more
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Saturday May 24, 2008 8:30 pm
Take Boston over Detroit
Everybody knows Bostons terrible road record in the playoffs. That includes the Pistons. Sure, this is the playoffs and every game counts, etc, etc, etc. However, even the smallest of edge in professional sports can help a team cover, or not cover, ... read more
NBA Basketball
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics Thursday May 22, 2008 8:30 pm
Play the UNDER in Detroit-Boston <p> Boston was #1 in defensive efficiency this season in the NBA and Detroit was #4. Detroit also was the slowest paced team in the league. In Game 1, Boston was able to shoot over 50% and the game still went UNDER the total. ... read more
NBA Basketball
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics Tuesday May 20, 2008 8:30 pm
Take UNDER 174 in Detroit Boston!
Boston has just one day of rest versus six for Detroit. Don't see Boston running like they did in the final game against Cleveland. Also, preparation time for Detroit is obviously minimal. Over the past five years, if a team won their previous ... read more
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets Monday May 19, 2008 8:30 pm
Each home team in this series has won by double digits with an average margin of 18 points. New Orleans has done well after not getting an ATS win, going 21-5. Over the past ten years, home teams that are two possession or better favorites are 12-4 against the spread in Game ... read more
NBA Basketball
New Orleans Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs Thursday May 15, 2008 9:00 pm
We played the OVER 186.5 in Game 5 of this series. The pace had significantly increased in Games 3 and 4 played in San Antonio. The pace of Game 5 in the first half was in the exact same range as those games. Poor shooting by both squads, Spurs at 39.5% and the Hornets at 40.5%, ... read more
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets Tuesday May 13, 2008 9:30 pm
Take San Antonio New Orleans OVER!
The pace in Games 3 and 4 of this series increased significantly. The Spurs are quickly looking for outlet passes to Ginobili or Parker to get the ball up court quickly.
New Orleans Coach Byron Scott has continuously urged his team to ... read more
NBA Basketball
New Orleans Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs Sunday May 11, 2008 8:00 pm
Take New Orleans over San Antonio
In Game 3, both teams picked up the pace. San Antonio started Manu Ginobili to help jump start the offense. New Orleans was double-teaming Tim Duncan in the first two games. The Spurs offense was sputtering. The Spurs wanted to avoid Duncan ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz Sunday May 11, 2008 3:30 pm
Take LA Lakers - Utah Jazz UNDER!
The pace in Game 3 slowed down tremendously with Utah going home to Energy Solutions Arena with only 203 points scored, 12 below the 215 lined total. The pace was actually fairly slow, just a 90.3.
Jerry Sloan, Utah's coach, realizes that ... read more
NBA Basketball
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic Saturday May 10, 2008 5:00 pm
Take Orlando over Detroit
From everything I have read and heard it appears Detroits Chauncey Billups will not play today. I believe Detroit would rather give him a couple more days of rest rather than risk losing him for the rest of the playoffs.
Billups being out is not why ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz Friday May 9, 2008 9:00 pm
Take Utah over LA Lakers
There is a lot to be said about home cooking and playing in your own arena. Nobody was better at it during the regular season than the Utah Jazz. Yes, Utah led the NBA in fouls committed. However, the Lakers having 46 more free throws than the Jazz ... read more
NBA Basketball
New Orleans Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs Thursday May 8, 2008 9:30 pm
Take New Orleans San Antonio UNDER 183
The Spurs are down 2 games to none at the hands of 2 double-digit losses at New Orleans. This is a do-or-die game for San Antonio. San Antonio will be as focused and play with high intensity as the avoid going down 3-0. The Spurs improved ... read more
NBA Basketball
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers Wednesday May 7, 2008 10:30 pm
Take Utah-Los Angeles OVER the Total
I have talked all year about how important it is to a teams shooting percentage and whether a team shoots over or under 40% in relationship to whether the game goes over or under the lined total. The first meeting in the playoffs between LA ... read more
NBA Basketball
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:00 pm
Cleveland shot below 40% in three of the six Washington games. In the four games in Boston, the Celtics held the Hawks to below 30% shooting once, below 40% field goal percentage in 2 games, and only 40.6% in the other game. In the regular season, 24 times Cleveland was held ... read more
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets Monday May 5, 2008 9:30 pm
Take the OVER in San Antonio-New Orleans
The Spurs are 8-4 OVER the last five years in Round 2 after a straight-up loss. They are 4-0 OVER if the previous game went UNDER and the current lined total is in the 180s. The OVER is 4-1 in Round 2 after a straight-up Spurs loss.
The ... read more
NBA Basketball
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Monday May 5, 2008 7:00 pm
Take the OVER in Orlando-Detroit
The OVER is 14-5 the past five years in the playoffs if Detroit won at home in its previous game and is still at home. The OVER is 11-3 if the Pistons opponent is the same as in the previous game.
The OVER is 16-9 if a team scored less than ... read more
NBA Basketball
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics Sunday May 4, 2008 1:00 pm
Take Boston over Atlanta
I cant recall seeing a team more excited about winning a playoff game that wasnt closing out the other team than how the Atlanta Hawks acted after beating the Celtics in Game 6. It was almost like they had won the series. Letdowns are very prone to happen ... read more