- Betting Doctor Snapshot
- #2 in 2008 Hilton NFL SuperContest with 54-28-3 (65%) record.
About Betting Doctor
A glossary of write-up abbreviations can be found in my "Articles" section.
My Handicapping and Betting Philosophy
I consider myself to be a comprehensive handicapper. Each sport is its own “animal” and I don’t have a magic formula for any of them. Statistics, although more important in some sports (e.g. NFL, NBA) than others (e.g. CFB), are primarily a “jumping off” point. They must be interpreted in tune with various subjective factors (e.g. motivation, point spread role, scheduling). Then, of course, we must compare all this to each team’s “price” (i.e. the point spread). It all boils down to finding under-priced teams to bet ON and over-priced ones to bet AGAINST.Like any other probabilistic exercise (e.g. poker, horse racing, investing in the stock market, etc.), betting on sports successfully requires a focus on process (the handicapping decisions) rather than outcome (the result). Since bad bets win and good bets lose every day, in the long run, it is better to lose for the right reasons (good process) than to win for the wrong ones (good outcome). So… the answer to the question is: “It is better to be good than lucky”. You should also realize that sports betting is far from a get-rich-quick scheme. It takes work, discipline, patience and proper money management to profit long-term. There are so many possible variables in a sporting event that luck is a major factor in probably 50% of all bets. For that reason, I don’t expect to win every day… or week… or month… or even every season. If you are in the market for a sports betting service, I think you should commit for a significant period of time to someone you trust and whose rationale you respect (even if it’s not me). Someone’s short-term results will tell you next to nothing about their ability as a handicapper. That’s why my minimum pick package is for a month. I don’t do “Plays of the… fill-in-the-blank”, etc. – games either qualify for a bet OR they do not. Every pick I post on a “stand-alone” game (e.g. MNF, Thursday CFB) is a bet I am making myself and will be part of any picks package.I think that varying your bet size is bullsh*t. Someone who picks more winners than losers and yet finds himself in the red due to betting differing amounts because of some “star system” is, quite frankly, an idiot. Therefore, all my plays will be for 4% of Bankroll; which on this site means 5 units.
My Handicapping Experience
20-plus years.
My Special Achievments in Handicapping
Writing and self-publishing my book on how to bet sports for a living.
My Most Memorable Moment
Hmmm… probably dropping $100 bucks on a “prop” for Devin Hester @ about 30:1 to score 1st TD of the Chicago-Indy Super Bowl – you’ll recall he did it on the opening kick-off. Drinks on me! :)
Biggest Win of my Career
$63,000 for last year’s 2nd place tie (out of 350 contestants) in the Las Vegas Hilton’s NFL “SuperContest”.
Toughest Loss of my Career
Every loss is the same… i.e. 4% of our Bankroll. Even the best sports bettor will lose, on average, 4 out of every 10 straight bets; you need to be comfortable with that.
Favorite Team(s) to Play or Fade
My "favorite" team (and only for about 3 hours) is whoever we bet on.
What You Can Expect From Me
Quite simple; I will tell you what I am doing with my own money. I don’t sell picks for a living. I am a real doctor and still work part-time (“Google” away if you want). Between that and my own winnings I am doing fine financially. I get satisfaction from helping other people win, but I don’t see why I should do that for nothing. Like I tell my patients: “you know what they say about Free advice?... it’s worth what you paid for it”. So… this site and I are giving each other a try. Perhaps you and I might give each other a try as well.Reed Hogben M.D.
“You know one of the surest ways to tell a winner from a loser? Ask a person why he bet before and after the bet has been decided. The winning gambler has the same answer before and after, whether he wins or loses; the losers know better after, “I should have” are the most commonly uttered words from losers. The winners will tell you they made the right bet, for the right amount, win or lose. Why? Because they have bet according to a plan, following their own rules for what constitutes a good bet. Having a set of rules to follow in the form of a plan protects our winning side from our losing side.” (James Jasper)
The Seven Deadly Sins of Sports Betting
The investment world is becoming increasing familiar with the field of Behavioral Finance. This discipline unites key principles ...read more
Show Me The Money... Line!
Often when bettors bet underdogs, they look at the points they get in the bet as a type of insurance. In my opinion, rare is ...read more
Glossary of Abbreviations
AD: Away DogAF: Away FavoriteAFD: Away Field DisadvantageAG: Away GameATS: Against the SpreadBC: Back CourtBF: In CFB, a Big ...read more
Betting Doctor Picks For Sale
THE TOP TEN RISK-FREE GUARANTEE: ALL picks and packages are 100% guaranteed! If they do not win, you get an equal package free!
Betting Doctor Past Picks
NFL Football
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday February 7, 2010 6:25 pm
Edge Colts, due to experience, with Saints a SB "virgin"? Maybe... teams in 1st SB vs a team with a past history are 6-11 ATS. Or maybe not... teams returning to a SB within L3Y are 1-7 ATS. Today's scenario is a repeat of LY, with the virgin Cardinals covering vs the experienced ... read more
NFL Football
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Sunday January 24, 2010 6:40 pm
Both here off blowouts sparked by key injuries; the Cardinals #1 CB and the Cowboy's LT. Saint's HFA perhaps some diminished by a dome opponent. However, while 9-0 @ H, Vikings a different story on the road. Since waxing 3 lightweights (Cle/Det/StL) in 1st 5 wks, Minny is 1-4 SU/ATS ... read more
NFL Football
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday January 24, 2010 3:00 pm
Foresee zero intimidation in favor of Colts here, what with Jets on 5G SU/ATS Away W streak and fresh off B2B playoff upsets; ending San Diego's 11G W streak LW. They're looking reminiscent of the 2007 Giants and 2005 Steelers. An Indy W would be step #1 in #1 seeds meeting in the ... read more
NFL Football
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts Saturday January 16, 2010 8:15 pm
Ravens looking to carry LW momentum into TG, while Colts under pressure to prove that bailing on perfect season was the right move. Indy and Baltimore have played once a year since 2004 with Colts 6-0 SU/ATS. They also get the nod on my TO Turnaround system, but PSPR makes them +9 ... read more
NFL Football
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals Sunday January 10, 2010 4:40 pm
Last of the Week 17 rematches with LW winners 2-0 so far. Tough to go against the Pack who are a 4 1/2 PSPR Fav and on 7-0-1 ATS streak and 7-1 SU L8G with only L on last play @ Pittsburgh. However, GBP likes them @ about 75% and has taken them from +2 1/2 to -1 1/2. Fact remains ... read more
NFL Football
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 10, 2010 1:00 pm
3rd straight AG for Ravens, while Pats off semi-tune-up @ Houston. Rematch of Week 4 New England 27-21 HW when GBP liked Baltimore taking them from +3, +100 to +1. TG OL of +4 now +3 1/2, with Total down 1 1/2 pts from G1 closer of 45. Patriots D that was shredded @ New Orleans is ... read more
NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets Sunday January 3, 2010 8:20 pm
Interesting dynamic here as if Jets W, these two likely to meet again next week. Says Bengal's HC Lewis, "We're going to play to win a football game. We're going to go ahead and end this thing the right way and keep this momentum we've had". Jets off Bogus W/belated Christmas ... read more
NFL Football
Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders Sunday January 3, 2010 4:15 pm
W and in for Ravens as Raiders play for pride. Oakland on the road in similar position LY in week 17 and knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs. They're off a Bogus L LW; 389-282 yds, -2 TO. Raiders have played their best vs the best. They have 7 covers TY and 6 of them (and 4 of ... read more
NFL Football
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills Sunday January 3, 2010 1:00 pm
TG shapes up somewhat like pre-season with Indy's starters perhaps getting a little action before the battle of 3rd string QB's. Where's the value in this spread? Well... if Indy were serious, this line would probably be a TD-plus. Lines maker threw out Bills -6 and it's been taken ... read more
NFL Football
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Sunday January 3, 2010 1:00 pm
With Bears off what was in essence their playoff G on MNF and Lions a divisional revenging HD, edge Detroit. Prior to LW, Chicago on a 7G ATS L streak. They enter TG 1-6 SU Away TY (only W @ Seattle) with L L5 scoring <8 ppg. And they are laying points! Probably thinking only ... read more
NFL Football
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Sunday January 3, 2010 1:00 pm
Off a 41-9 disgrace in LG @ their H stadium do G-men mail it in or not? Vikings with shot a #2 seed with W and Philly L this afternoon. Both D's leaking oil @ #31 and #27 yds/pt. For Vikings, that makes it hard to cover >TD and PSPR agrees @ only -3 1/2. LG got away from Giants ... read more
NFL Football
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams Sunday January 3, 2010 1:00 pm
Edge to another divisional revenging HD. Another crappy Away team (SF L L6); this one laying > TD. 49ers off the aforementioned +5 TO MLF W over Detroit. That's part of a huge difference of 5 on my TO Turnaround system. G1 final was 35-0, but SF got 3 D TD's, as Rams held them ... read more
NFL Football
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Sunday December 27, 2009 8:20 pm
B2B national TV G's for both, but with wildly disparate results LW. Cowboys ended Saint's perfect season, while Redskins were brutal on MNF. It's either roll over or go all out for Washington and in divisional revenge as a HD, I favor the latter. Match-ups seem to be in their favor ... read more
NFL Football
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals Sunday December 27, 2009 1:00 pm
Chiefs L L4 SU/ATS and may be saving their best effort for divisional opponent Denver next week. Think Bengals go all out to clinch division so they don't have to worry about doing it @ NY Jets. These two played in Week 17 LY and KC could only muster 220 yds. Cincy D has allowed ... read more
NFL Football
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins Sunday December 27, 2009 1:00 pm
Playoff G before the playoffs as loser is out. Texans W by 1 pt @ H Last Year. Primarily a Point Spread Power Rating play here as despite 4 of L5A, Dolphins a 12 1/2 pt Fav. GBP has taken them from OL of a Field Goal to only -1 1/2. Houston D vulnerable to the run which is Miami's ... read more
NFL Football
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday December 27, 2009 1:00 pm
Must side with Super Bowl Champs here as they're out with L, while Ravens would still be alive. Steelers also in divisional revenge due to near-miss SNF OT L with Roethlisberger out. PSPR does make Baltimore a slim 2 1/2 pt Fav, but that's with Ravens playing 4 of L5H. They're 1-4 ... read more
NFL Football
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Monday December 21, 2009 8:35 pm
Giants 1G back in Wild Card with W. Redskins a revenging divisional HD on MNF. They're getting +3 when PSPR has them a 10 1/2 pt Fav. Their L5G all covers with hard luck L's to Dallas, Philly and New Orleans by a combined 7 pts. Meanwhile, NY on 1-7 ATS skid with 4 SU L as Fav. This ... read more
NFL Football
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers Sunday December 20, 2009 8:20 pm
Vikings still with an outside shot @ #1 seed. With Dallas W last night, Panthers officially playoff history. Regardless, as a playoff team LY and a big SNF HD, think we get their "A" game. Minny's road credentials a little sketchy with 2L, a divisional W (GB) and then 3 ... read more
NFL Football
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Sunday December 20, 2009 4:15 pm
A 49ers W and they could easily finish 9-7 with Wild Card hopes; only Det. and StL to go. Eagles back H off Bogus W on SNF. They allowed 512 yds but got fumble and punt return TD's. Their 4G W streak aided by similar good fortune and a +7 TO margin L3G. O's about even yds/pt with ... read more
NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers Sunday December 20, 2009 4:05 pm
WR Henry's tragic death occurred early enough in the week for Bengals to deal with it and re-focus off their 1st poor outing of year as a Dog LW. QB Palmer reportedly gathered the team and a decision was made to dedicate the remainder of the season to their fallen teammate. Chargers ... read more
College Football
Central Florida Golden Knights @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Saturday December 19, 2009 8:00 pm
As a pre-season Big East conference title favorite, Rutgers had to be hoping for something better than this. Virtual HG for UCF whose campus only 100 miles away. Off a 4-8 2008, they'll be pumped as school is 0-2 SU in its Bowl history (7 and 1 pt L's '07 and '05 respectively). UCF ... read more
College Football
Wyoming Cowboys @ Fresno State Bulldogs Saturday December 19, 2009 4:30 pm
Edge Cowboys who are very excited to be here, not having "Bowled" since 2004. Bulldogs have to be a little disappointed to be in the same Bowl as LY and the 1st one of the year. The fact they did lose SU in 2008 might give them some motivation, but it looks like a dud for ... read more
NFL Football
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys Sunday December 13, 2009 4:15 pm
Dallas back H off a semi-Bogus L as the media gets it revved up about their December swoons. However, fact that they're playing a team that's W L7 SU, is a Dog for only 3rd time TY and is 2-0 so far vs NFC East (Philly, NYG) makes that pretty much a wash. PSPR says Chargers a slim ... read more
NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings Sunday December 13, 2009 1:00 pm
9-3 @ 10-2 and each can clinch their division with a W. Would expect a better effort from Vikings off LW SNF L, but will it be enough? Bengals have written the book TY on playing to the level of your opposition as the Dog in their G's in an amazing 12-0 ATS. Included in that is Cincy's ... read more
NFL Football
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Sunday December 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Surprisingly, the Falcons laid an egg in a good emotional spot LW and now follow-up as a DD revenging divisional HD. Saint's HC Payton on record as saying 16-0 is important; basically an open challenge to the 4 remaining teams on their schedule. So... we all know what New Orleans ... read more
