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College Hoops: It's All About Relative Value
by: Kyle Hunter
In order to be a successful bettor in any sport, you must understand that value is all relative to public perception. I find that college basketball emphasizes relative value when betting more than any other sport. There are plenty of times where a team is expected to be very good and the lines are inflated too much by the books because of it. At the same time, there are also plenty of opportunities because the oddsmakers are too low on a team that is bad, but not terrible.
Why does this happen so frequently in college basketball? Before the season starts every conference has predicted rankings based on the media’s perception of where each team will finish. The national top 25 is also all about perception. Perception and reality often turn out to be two completely different things. At the beginning of the season many of the lines are released based on perception, which allows a wise bettor to take advantage of some soft lines.
Let’s take a look at some examples in the early going in the 2010-2011 college basketball season. These are teams that have been a good fade or a good play because of their relative value.
First, we’ll look at a couple teams that are good, but not as good as they were perceived to be:
Virginia Tech- The Hokies were a pretty good team last year, and their star Malcolm Delaney was returning for this season so everyone assumed this team would be very good. Virginia Tech is currently 1-5 ATS in their 6 lined games this year. The Hokies rely far too much on Delaney to do everything, and they have struggled because of it.
Florida- The Gators were ranked #9 in the preseason top 25 despite their lack of a strong season last year. Florida was trounced by Ohio State, and they are just 1-5 ATS so far this year. They have allowed opponents to shoot the ball well, and turnovers have also been a problem. Florida is a talented team, but they were overvalued to start the year.
Now for a couple teams that aren’t that impressive, but they have provided bettors with a solid opportunity because of their relative outperformance versus expectations:
LSU- The Tigers are not a very good team, and I suspect that will start showing up when they play some good teams, but the oddsmakers were definitely too low on this team. LSU is 5-0 ATS this year because of some very impressive defense. Their opponents are shooting just 36.9% from the floor.
Massachusetts- The Minutemen have stayed under the radar this year, but they are 4-0 ATS thus far. The team has four players averaging double figures in points, and they are allowing just 64 points per game. Ten players average double figures in minutes played per game, which helps them finish games strong.
Some bettors simply think about which team is good or bad before making their decision of who to bet on in a given game. This is the wrong way to look at betting on college basketball. You should always consider the relative value of a team versus the perceived value. The bottom line is that college basketball is a sport where value can be found in multiple places if you are paying attention!
Kyle Hunter Past Articles
Top Five Underrated Starting Pitchers in Baseball
The season is now a month and a half old. The pretenders will start fading away over the next few weeks, while I expect some of the underachieving teams ... read more
BracketBuster Weekend Preview
BracketBuster weekend is here, which means March is right around the corner. College basketball is now on the center stage. My single favorite time of ... read more
College Hoops: It's All About Relative Value
In order to be a successful bettor in any sport, you must understand that value is all relative to public perception. I find that college basketball emphasizes ... read more
NCAA Football Totals Provide Extra Opportunities
Are you taking advantage of all the opportunities presented to you in the world of college football betting? If you aren't playing totals on a regular ... read more
Kyle Hunter Past Picks
MLB Baseball
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners Monday May 21, 2012 10:10 pm
*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP Play* Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers will take on Felix Hernandez and the Mariners here. King Felix is a tough guy to wager against, but I think there are very solid reasons behind this one. The Rangers are arguably the best team in baseball right now. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics Monday May 21, 2012 10:05 pm
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Los Angeles Angles have been burning money all year long. Vernon Wells is now out with an injury and Torii Hunter is out. All of the sudden the Angels offense doesn't even look that good on paper right now. Tom Milone has pitched 23 innings at home ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros Monday May 21, 2012 8:05 pm
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Chicago Cubs are in a major funk right now. They just got swept at home by their hated rivals from the south side (White Sox). While many expected the Astros to be terrible, they haven't been that bad so far this year. They are 13-10 at home this ... read more
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers Sunday May 20, 2012 10:30 pm
*5 Star NBA Top Play Total* The San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 22 point first quarter deficit to win and go up 3-0 yesterday. The Clippers showed that they are intent on slowing the pace of the game down at home, and I think they'll try to do that again in this one. Both teams ... read more
MLB Baseball
Los Angeles Angels @ San Diego Padres Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Doug Eddings has been the best 'under' umpire in baseball for the last few years. Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in baseball. Ervin Santana and Anthony Bass have both improved as the season has gone along, and I expect both of them ... read more
MLB Baseball
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Stephen Strasburg struggled through his last start, and I fully expect him to bounce back in a big way here. Strasburg is an extremely talented pitcher who hasn't had a bad outing twice in a row before. Chen is a very good pitcher for the Orioles as well, ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Saturday May 19, 2012 7:15 pm
*3 Star Red Sox/Phillies Moneyline CASH* Jon Lester hasn't been terrific this year, but he has been better in his last couple outings. The Phillies are batting just .240 against lefties this year. Joe Blanton has been very solid of late, but I expect him to struggle against one of ... read more
MLB Baseball
Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays Saturday May 19, 2012 4:10 pm
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Atlanta Braves have the best offense in the National League right now. They are a team with depth that can fit right into the American League DH rule in interleague play. Tampa Bay's offense is short-handed and they simply don't have the offensive ... read more
MLB Baseball
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers Saturday May 19, 2012 4:05 pm
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the worst offenses in the majors. Pittsburgh averages 2.85 runs per game which is worst in the majors. Drew Smyly has been very good in his rookie year for the Tigers. A.J. Burnett has had four great starts and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Saturday May 19, 2012 4:05 pm
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Anibal Sanchez flies under the radar pretty well, but he is a very good starting pitcher. Sanchez is remarkably consistent and he can really rack up the strikeouts. Cleveland's lineup is pretty good, but Sanchez has been great on the road in the past. ... read more
