Betting Ugly on Under in NBA Playoffs

by: Nite Owl Sports

While it varies from year to year how well (or poorly) the overs or the unders do in the NBA playoffs, the one thing that is more consistent is that most fans and sports bettors simply don’t like betting under, especially in hoops, where fast paced, high scoring games are generally preferred. And in the NBA finals, especially when one of the teams is the up tempo and high scoring Lakers, the fans expect to be "entertained," and tend to bet on the over because that (high scoring) is what they want..

But as professional sports handicappers, we are expected to give our clients winners, not "hype" games by claiming there will be lots of scoring. And the simple fact is that as we get deeper into the NBA playoffs each year, we tend to have more low scoring games because while flashy offense, "alley oops" and slam dunks, along with multiple fast breaks and the resulting high scoring may make the viewers happy, it’s primarily defense that wins NBA playoff games (especially in the later rounds) and championships. And this year is no exception, with four good defensive teams being the last four standing (and yes, the Lakers are a good defensive team TY, even though with MVP Kobe Bryant, they are known primarily for their offense).That being said, let’s examine the totals results in TY’s NBA playoffs excluding the first round, and culminating with the current finals series between Boston and LA.

In the second round, the totals went 11-13-1 to the under (11 overs and 13 unders, with one push), with three of the four series having winning records for the under with very low ppg averages (Boston -Cleve 3-4 to the under, average 169 ppg, Detroit-Orlando 2-3 to the under, average 182 ppg, and SA-NO 2-4-1 to the under, average 184 ppg). The only second round over series was LA vs high scoring but "defensively challenged" Utah, which had 4 overs and 2 unders. But things really slowed down in the third round (conference championships), where the totals results were a convincing 2-9 to the under (9 under winners to just two losers), with LA-SA going 0-5 under and averaging 182 ppg, and Boston -Detroit going 2-4 to the under while averaging 181.

Given the above evidence of the dominance of the unders in the late rounds of TY’s NBA playoffs (especially both conference finals), now let’s examine what has happened so far in the championship round between LA and Boston, where the under has prevailed in 3 of the 4 games, with only the Lakers’ incredible scoring burst in the fourth quarter of game 2 resulting in the lone series "over." In fact, except for three 30+ point quarters (out of the 16 quarters played in the four games), the Lakers’ high powered offense has been held pretty well in check by Boston’s defense, and it’s been the same for LA’s under-rated defense holding down Boston most of the time (only three 30+ point quarters out of 16 for Celtics, as well). Conversely, using 20 points as the threshold for a low scoring quarter, Lakers have had 7 of those, while Celtics have had five. While the foregoing makes a pretty strong case for the under in the remaining game(s) of this series, it also has to be asked how one can reliably handicap a team (totals wise) with as many "peaks and valleys" as Lakers have shown on offense in this series, with both terrific and terrible quarters in the same game in three of the four – specifically, a 15 point first quarter followed by a 30 point second quarter in game 1, a 20 point second quarter and a 19 point third quarter followed by that 41 point fourth quarter outburst in game 2, and finally looking "all world" with their 35 point first quarter in game 4, only to follow that up with a pathetic 33 points in the entire second half of that game. Our answer is to avoid betting the first half total (either way) as well as avoid betting on or against LA in the first half, as a terrific or terrible quarter by either of these teams can "kill" a first half bet, while if the scoring is spread out over the entire game, things should even out enough to overcome a one quarter "aberration." But get this – betting opposite from the first half totals result in the second half has gone a profitable 3-1 so far in this series – with the second half under winning after the relatively high scoring first halves of games 1 and 4, and the second half over winning after the relatively low scoring first half of game 2 (while the second half over lost in a game 3 which was unusually low scoring throughout, with a ridiculous 168 total points scored). And speaking of second half reversals, although this article is about totals betting, we didn’t think you would mind if we mentioned that taking the team that is behind at half time to cover the second half line is 4-0 in the series. So if you pick your spots in this series, there is money to be made, especially if you have access to second half lines.

But it doesn’t even have to be that difficult – we are 3-1 for +7 units on our sides picks in this series (part of our incredible 10-2 run for +18 units in our last 12 NBA playoff picks), and thought we were well on our way to 4-0 for +11 units in the series with our two unit pick on LA in game 4 when they took commanding leads of 35-14 at end of first quarter and 58 -40 at the half, putting an exclamation point on a spectacular first half with Jordan Farmar’s 3 point bomb at the buzzer (which ironically would be the only points scored by Farmar in the entire game). But then the "wheels fell off" for LA in the second half, and our two unit pick (the smallest of our four side picks this series) went down along with them.

So do the Lakers bounce back from that frustrating defeat, knowing this is their final game if they don’t, and not wanting to see the hated (in LA) Celtics celebrate a series clinching win at Staples Center? And does Boston let up in game 5 (much like they did in their weak game 3 performance in LA, in which they shot a miserable 35%), knowing they have already accomplished their goal of winning at least one game in LA, and that even with a loss tonite they still would have two chances to win it all at friendly BankNorth Center in front of their home fans? Or do they close in for the kill and wrap things up tonite on the road? We have been very confident with our double sides play for 7 units (5 ATS and two units on money line) in game 5 ever since we released our picks for this game Friday morning, but after receiving some key "inside information" from a reliable source very close to one of the teams, we are even more convinced that team will "come to play" and will be more energized and successful than their opponent. So let us help you make some big money on this game, which just may be the best wagering opportunity left in this series and in this year’s NBA season. But will it also be the last? You’ll have to buy either our 5 unit ATS pick or our one day NBA pass to find that out.

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