Winning Baseball Handicapping Strategies Part II

by: Evan Altemus

For the last few years baseball has been a sport that has been the most difficult for me to handicap.  I have been able to make a profit almost every season in both pro and college football and basketball, but baseball has caused me to toss the remote at the television more than I usually.  However, there is a reason why you should read this article.  I have learned from my mistakes over the last few years and have been showing steady improvement in the sport, with last year being my best.  This season is looking to be my best ever based on my profitable start, and I feel confident that I will show a profit at the end of the year.  The biggest reason I struggled with baseball handicapping is that it took me awhile to realize that this sport is different from football or basketball, two sports that I think are very similar from a handicapping perspective.  I have been learning more and more about the unique intricacies of the sport, which has enabled me to develop a good baseball handicapping strategy.  Ok, enough rambling, here's what I think are the keys when it comes to handicapping the most popular sport in the summer.  These articles will be a several part series where I explain what I think are the most important keys to baseball handicapping.
    

STARTING PITCHING - While I don't think starting pitching is the only thing people should look at when handicapping games, I still think it's important.  The first thing I look at is current form.  Has a starting pitcher been dominant, getting shelled, up-and-down?  To help me determine that I look at runs given up, strikeout-to-walk ratio, hits, walks, and pitches thrown.  However, a pitcher could have an outing or two where he held opponents to a couple of runs or less but really didn't have good stuff because he needed over 100 pitches to get through just 6 innings while walk 5 batters and posting just 2 strikeouts.  While that is an extreme example, it gives you an idea of how to determine the true performance of each start.  
    

BULLPENS - The average bettor focuses way too much on starting pitching when looking at games.  This is because right below the line the next thing bettors see is the starting pitchers, and they think well I know that guy sucks because I saw him get destroyed in his last start and well damn the other starter is rock solid and ESPN always talks about how good he is.  However, that same person never even takes a peek at each team's bullpen.  That highly favored team with the ace starting pitcher can easily give up a lead in the late innings due to bad bullpen pitching.  There are three important keys to look at with bullpens.  They are overall season long performance, recent performance, and who's available to pitch in the current game.  Some pens can improve or decline throughout the season due to coaching, trades, injuries, additions, etc.  I am much less inclined to back a team with a questionable bullpen, no matter who the starter is, and I am more likely to fade a team with equal starters and line-ups if I think they have a strong edge in relief pitchers.
    

HOME/ROAD RECORDS - Home/road performance is important because you can find some good value in backing or fading teams.  For example, Pittsburgh has been a great moneymaker at home over the last few years.  The Pirates are priced low because they are so bad, but they finished above .500 at PNC Park last year, making their home backers some good money.  A good team to fade on the road last season would have been Boston.  The Red Sox are always overvalued because of their popularity and strong recent performance, but they weren't a very good road team last year and were priced too high away from home.  
    

RIGHTIES / SOUTHPAWS - Another thing to consider with baseball is how a team hits righties and lefties.  The New York Yankees have hit lefties very well over the last few seasons, while the Chicago White Sox have really struggled against them.  I would be much more inclined to take the Yankees on the moneyline or run line against a left handed starter as a result, while I would look to fade the White Sox against southpaws.  
    

TRAVEL/MOTIVATIONAL SPOTS - I also look at travel or motivational spots in baseball, but I don't feel that it's anywhere near as important as in football or basketball, because those are much more physical sports.  Baseball is much more about other factors because the players aren't hitting each other as in football or requiring a great deal of physical energy to defend or run up and down the court.  However, there are letdown situations like if a team is coming off a huge successful series against their division rival.  They aren't likely going to care too much about playing a lesser name team on the road immediately after.

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