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Why the Oddsmakers are Having Difficulty
by: Mr East
This has been a year in the NFL of the have's and have nots. As we reach the midpoint of the season, it has become quite clear, that there are more than the usual share of teams that are just very bad football teams. That number is presently at 6, with those 6 teams showing none with more than 1 win, and an overall record of 5-39, and when you consider that 1 of the 5 wins was generated playing another team from this group, the grand total is actually 4 wins.
It NFL always has a team or two, or perhaps even 3, that are just horrible, and never get anything going, but even those teams show promise as an ugly dog, but this season, the ugly dogs are so bad, they don't have their usual bite. I took a look at the teams listed in this group which include the following:
CLEVELAND 1-7
TENNESSEE 1-6
KANSAS CITY 1-6
DETROIT 1-6
TAMPA BAY 0-7
ST. LOUIS 1-6
Here is the ugly report of why the oddsmakers are struggling, as the public continues to eat heavy chalk to the cash window. These teams have squared off a total of 29 times vs a team with a .500 record or better. The straight up record stands at 0-29! The problem for the oddsmakers go beyond that, as the 29 games have produced a losing margin of an average of 21.1ppg. There have been 21 of 29 games between the have's and the have nots, that have been decided by 14 or more points, that is 72.4%! There have been 18 of 29 decided by 17 or more points, or 62.1%, and 17 of 29 decided by 20 or more points, that is still 58.6 points if every game had a line of 19.5 or more!
So what are the oddsmakers supposed to do in this unprecedented situation? Can they start treating all these games like the 2007 New England Patriot games, because it is the only true example we have seen that can parellel what is happening here. Through 8 weeks of that season the Pats were tearing up the oddsmakers going 8-0 ATS, to an average line of -10.6. The oddsmakers choice was to tax New England so much, they were completely over-priced. They became on average, a -16.3 point favorite the rest of the way out, and were a 19 point favorite or more in 4 of them, and a 20.5 or more favorite in 3 of them. The 8-0 ATS start, became a 2-6 ATS finish, and if you count the playoffs, a 2-9 ATS finish!
Going forward the oddsmakers are facing a serious dilemna, do they do the same and start posting these teams at 17-24 point favorites? The risk is the pendulum of value shifts to the underdog, as the top teams as we get late in the season, don't expend the same energy vs these cupcakes. It will be interesting to see going forward, but I would tend to believe, if they "over" adjust, we will see some tremendous value on the ugly dogs as the season moves forward.
EAST
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
MLB Baseball
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals Monday May 21, 2012 8:15 pm
: I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
WNBA Basketball
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
