Why Statistics Can Take You Down The Wrong Path

by: Mr East

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed something in the American League, but the Yankees, once 13-15 on the season in May, and carrying the leagues worst bullpen, has vaulted to a 38-19 mark in their last 57 games, and have caught the Red Sox. So why the turnaround? The answer is very simple, but it stands as being invisible. Noone denies the Bombers are the Bombers again, with 8 players in the lineup with 10 or more HR's, and a ninth player closing in with 8. If asked about the Yankee weakness it would be answered by most, the bullpen. When they were 13-15 they had the highest ERA of all 30 major league teams. They currently rank 20th, which still looks bad, but the real numbers are hidden.

Let's take a look at what has happened. Aceves has been solid out of the pen all season, sporting a 2.03 ERA with a 5-1 record. Phil Coke has been outstanding since June 1st with a 1.13 ERA. Robertson has been added as well, and since June 1st he has a 2.66 ERA out of the pen. Phil Hughes has taken up residence in the pen, and has pitched to a 1.15 ERA there. Then there is MR. Automatic in Mariano Rivera with just 1 blown save on the season, and since June 1st a 2.66 ERA

The 5 main cogs in the pen have combined for 107.1 innings, 64 hits allowed, 23 earned runs, just 28 walks, along with 113 strikeouts, and a 7-2 won/loss record. That is an ERA of 1.93, and a batting average against of .166. The once worst bullpen in baseball, and the weak link of the team, has become the team's strength, and is by far, over the last 6 weeks, the best bullpen in baseball.

So although the overall rank is in the bottom third of the league, over the last 6 weeks there has been no 5 man quintet in any bullpen in baseball that has been better. If the Yankees continue to get good results from the pen, and stay away from key injuries, they are going to be tough to beat.

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