Who Covers? Losing or Winning Teams?

by: Jim Kruger

Last week we looked at teams who were on a winning streak and still undefeated. The three different trends we highlighted finished 3-2 against the spread with a couple of notable winners with Stanford and Washington State. Unfortunately, I didn’t follow those two and instead thought Purdue was a better selection over Ohio State, especially considering the Stanford starting quarterback wasn’t going to play due to a seizure. Add some insulting remarks that the Cardinal Coach, Jim Harbaugh, had made about USC’s head mentor, Pete Carroll, along with USC falling to number two in the polls and that game had blowout written all over it. Going strictly by point spreads means that the Stanford win over USC was the biggest upset of all time in D-1 football, or whatever the heck the NCAA is calling major college football now.

This week we are going to look at teams who have lost their last two-games playing against a team who has won its previous two games. On a very basic level, one could say the two teams are going in opposite directions. But, the almighty point spread is the equalizer for our consideration.

If you just do a vanilla query you find that these teams who have lost two straight playing against a team who has won their last two games over the past five years gives you a 52.6% advantage playing on the team who has been losing. Refining this to the losing team as a dog improves you to 53.6%. So far there is nothing strong enough yet for placing wagers on a certain team.

If you have this team playing at home then your rate at covering the spread is now 56.2%. Add the contest being a conference game and at least the team’s fifth game of the year and we have moved up to an even 60% ATS rate. Right now, four teams this week fall into this angle: Duke, Idaho, Iowa, and UNLV.

We improve this ATS winning rate to 75% by adding one more qualifier: the team’s next game is also at home. We are now looking at a 30-10 ATS rate since 2002. Oh, and the only team that falls this week into this angle is UNLV over BYU. If you are a believer in the shorter time frame the better for a trend, then you will be happy to know this play is 22-3 since the beginning of the 2004 season. 12-1 the past two seasons, 2-0 so far this year.

Just curious, but in certain situations I believe that a team who is on the road but going home the next week can be more prone to a performance at less than 100%. Let’s see what the ATS record is of our team is if their opponent is playing at home next week. Instead of just 30-10, 75%, how about 19-4, 82.6%, over the past five years and 18-2 over the past four years!

Looking at the logic behind this makes sense. You have a team, BYU, who has won their past two games. They are playing a team, UNLV, that has lost its last two games. The Cougars are going on the road and the linesmaker is telling them they are definitely the better team by having them favored. Adding to the easing of BYU’s mindset is they get to play at home the following week.

This is a perfect time for the favored road team not to bring their “A game”. This angle happened twice last week with Duke covering against Wake Forest and North Carolina not only covering but winning outright as a home dog against Miami-Florida.

Every sport has situational tendencies. Certain tendencies happen at different rates depending upon the time of the season coupled with a multitude of other factors. Some tendencies only show up in certain sports. Unearthing some of these tendencies can help you pick more winners than losers.

Good luck to everyone this week!

Jim Kruger Past Articles

Don't Make Assumptions!
In last week's article I looked for teams that were out of a normal routine, having a change in their pattern. The results were very good as the two teams ... read more

Changing a Team's Routine
This week I haven’t yet found a juicy 90% angle like I wrote about last week with our spread winner on UNLV over BYU. But, I do believe I have found ... read more

Who Covers? Losing or Winning Teams?
Last week we looked at teams who were on a winning streak and still undefeated. The three different trends we highlighted finished 3-2 against the spread ... read more

Are Undefeated College Teams Overvalued?
”The Upset Special” was the favorite menu item this past week at the College Football Diner as three of the top five teams and seven of the ... read more

Does Overtime Affect a Team’s Next Game?
Every handicapper has their own style, their own methodology in handicapping games. I look at each sport using different variations to my style. In one ... read more

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