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Where the Value is in NCAA Basketball
by: Mr East
Has parity snuck down to the College Basketball level now? Do we have the gap between top to bottom in all conferences that shows, the difference is not what it once was, and if what happened last year is indicitive of things to come this season, then I'm going to give you something to look out for and pay attention to.
We have seen the big NFL underdogs claim the money in all but one game this season when they are posted as double-digit dogs. The NFl has as part of it's business plan, parity. It appears to be working as the strength of those teams at the top, that used to be blowouts against the bottom feeders simply isn't happening. We are watching the NCAA football season ripe with upsets at the top, with no team seemingly able to keep the lofty #1 for very long, and non-BCS upstarts Utah, Boise St., and Ball St each crashing the top 25.
I speak often of market inefficiency in an otherwise efficient market called sports wagering. It is genuinely where the most value is found, and it requires for the most part constant morphing, as trends change, what worked for awhile is gone, and you have to constantly be looking for signs of change. I'm in the process of going through an elongated study of learning the mechanics of taking top systems, and detecting the time to fade, and go the other way, as most systems regress back to 0. It requires a lot of research, and trial in error but it is what gives me the edge needed to win.
The market inefficiency I am about to reveal, came from what I noted above that is going on almost universally in sports. More and more unsophistacated gamblers pile on the strong teams, and the odds-makers are relishing in the opportunity to penalize them. I played a significant amount of games in NCAA Basketball last year, on some very heavy dogs, after the first of the year when teams began to sort out their identities, and the public was swarming to wager on them, against the so-called "cupcakes". I found the market inefficiency to be in the range of 15-19.5. These are the big dogs, but not the outrageous dogs that warrant 20+ just to get action on by the books. The results were 80 winners and 41 losers, or 66.1% ATS. Taking the bad teams, vs the kingpins in that price range would of netted you plenty.
It remains to be seen just how much this will continue this season, as the parity issue is part of NCAA Basketball. I would not suggest playing this blindly, but rather utilize handicapping processes, and what these weaknesses tell you, is to look within this bullseye for value in January and February.
I wish everyone a fantastic Basketball season. I love basketball, I am the total junkie! If your struggling, and need some help, just check out my track record here, and decide if I'm the one that can help make your wagering season a success. Read my write-ups on games and you'll see I'm not throwing out garbage, I have a lot of research and sound handicapping hours invested in each play, that I willingly share.
Best wishes for an amazing hoops season!
EAST
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
MLB Baseball
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals Monday May 21, 2012 8:15 pm
: I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
WNBA Basketball
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
