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What makes a professional handicapper good?
by: Mr East
There are many who read this that always wonder what makes a professional handicapper different from anyone else trying to pick games in what is considered an efficient sports market. There are many reasons, but only one good one. I'll begin by identifying the marketplace for sports wagering as one that is very highly efficient. This is what I mean by an efficient marketplace. Last season for example, and you can look at numbers for any sport at the end of the season and it will be just about the same. The NBA from last season shows numbers like this ATS:
CategoryRecordPercentAway Teams633-660-2148.96%Home Teams660-633-2151.04%Favorites666-623-2151.67%Dogs623-666-2148.33%Away Favorites203-194-651.13%Away Dogs429-463-1548.09%Home Favorites463-429-1551.91%Home Dogs194-203-648.87%
If you look closely the largest winning area were home favorites that covered 51.91% of the time. The marketplace for sports wagering, after broker commissions is 52.38% to break even. What this information deems, is the sports wagering market is highly efficient. The next catergory deals with totals proositions, and here is the composite table:
CategoryOversPercentUndersPercentOvertime Games6192.42%57.58%Non-Overtime Games57246.54%65753.46%All Games63348.88%66251.12%
As you can see the highest value in the NBA last season was taking unders, which won 51.12% of the time. Again, a very efficient marketplace, as 52.38% is required to breakeven.
You can look at any chart, any season and the marketplace is almost exclusively efficient. So then back to my initial thought of what makes a professional handicapper good? Well, one reason is marketing. A professional handicapper that is a good marketer will make tons of money, regardless of his record, because the marketplace is filled with desperate gamblers trying to make money in an efficient marketplace without the money management skills, or the know how to succeed, and calls on someone's hype to bail him out of a crisis, or just the "sickness" of constantly losing. A professional handicapper that is a good marketer will succeed in this marketplace by default. Next there is the professional handicapper that understands how to find inefficiencies in an efficient market, by countless time spent to exploit such inefficiencies. This professional, without good marketing skills will have great expertise, tons of success, but no clients!!!! He will lie undiscovered, or barely discovered. So that means the best pro handicapper is the person that can market himself effectively, and find inefficiencies in an efficient market. That pro is worth his weight in gold! So what do I mean by inefficiencies in an otherwise efficient market, and how do you find them? Here is exactly what I am referring to, and it is an expansion of a previous article I posted here on exploiting NFL Totals. The NFL totals market is efficient, with a yearly rate that comes up within the threshold of profitability. That means OVERS vs UNDERS are always within the 52.38% range, so the market is efficient. Where it isn't efficient is with the high totals. Football gamblers love high scoring teams, games, and overs. The oddsmakers realize when 2 offensive-minded teams clash on the field, the scoreboard, in the eyes of the gambler can't hold the points, so the totals are padded, and become inefficient to the professional gambler, but unknown to the betting public. This is where the professional handicapper earns his money, and becomes a true professional. Like the stockbroker, the realtor, that spends their entire day seeking inefficiencies of the marketplace, that is the life of a good professional handicapper. I can speak for myself, and say this. I spend the bulk of my day, and some nights too, seeking inefficiencies in the marketplace, to offer clients as solid selections. Here is the proof on NFL totals of 45.5 and higher:
These are the stats from 1979 through 2007 (last season)
45.5 and higher 302-243 55.41%
46.5 and higher 217-166 56.66%
47.5 and higher 191-146 56.68%
As you can see by the above data and research, the market gets more inefficient with each added point to the total in this range. This is what makes a good professional handicapper worth his weight in gold. Most gamblers look at this and say, well that isn't high enough, winning 56.68%. Anything over 52.38% is high enough, because the market is efficient! Card counters get banned in Casinos, for tilting the edge in their favor by 1-2%!!!! Why? because they will make a lot of money, and they will make it consistently. This is the stuff, that makes a professional handicapper worth his weight in gold, and personally I spend all my time looking for inefficiencies in an efficient market. It is why the recreational gambler will never be able to do this on his own consistently, as he will be trying to compete in an efficient market, and it is a matter of time before the odds catch up to him, or his money management catches him first, one of the other will do him in with 100% certainty. Like a research scientist, there are many 10-12 hour days of searching for an inefficiency in the marketplace, but coming up empty! It takes countless hours of dedication, and understanding what to look for, that makes a professional handicapper exactly that!
Mr East Past Articles
Mr. East's Weekly Look at NCAA-F Title Chasers
The Turkeys will soon be on the table, and that only means one thing. The college football season is winding down, and teams are jockeying for position, ... read more
Where the Value is in NCAA Basketball
Has parity snuck down to the College Basketball level now? Do we have the gap between top to bottom in all conferences that shows, the difference is not ... read more
Mr. East's Weekly Look at NCAAF Title Chasers
It has been another interesting week to say the least in college football. Penn St. bit the dust in Iowa City, and the BCS unbeatens are down to Texas ... read more
The Decline of Home-Field Advantage in the NFL
If you go back in the NFL with the inception of Monday Night Football, the rage with the novelty was the home underdog, which seemed to present blind ... read more
MREAST'S WEEKLY LOOK AT NCAAF TITLE CHASERS
What a game between Texas and Texas Tech. It was a nearly impossible spot for Texas, having played 3 undefeated teams in a row, and heading to Lubbock ... read more
Mr East Recent Past Picks
College Football
Ball State Cardinals @ Central Michigan Chippewas Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
The Ball St. Cardinals are flirting with an unbeaten season, and I don't think it comes to an end here. C. Michigan is an average team with a very misleading record. The Chippewa's have won 6 straight, and come in 8-2 on the season. The fact is they have won 5 games by 3 points or ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NBA Basketball
Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:30 pm
Not sure why, but the odds-makers keep posting the Golden St. Warriors in a range that they play over at home, against everyone. When the Warriors are home they simply dictate the tempo, and their 5 home dates this season have averaged 213.6ppg. This is nothing new, as the Warriors ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Nevada Wolf Pack @ San Diego Toreros Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:00 pm
I like the idea of taking dogs, that in my opinion are the better team, and getting points. San Diego gained late noteriety with NCAA win vs Uconn, so they will be over-priced early. nevada lost a couple key players, but that's the case every season, this is a program that gets good ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Football
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Kent State Golden Flashes Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
The kent offense is very one-dimensional, and it all falls in the hands of Julian Edelman. Edelman is not only the QB with a big arm, he is the top running back for the Golden Flashes, and went over the 1,000 yard mark on the season last week vs Temple. The one thing Edelman is guilty ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Cornell Big Red @ St John's Red Storm Monday November 17, 2008 9:30 pm
The Preseason NIT Tips off in Beantown Tonight, and the red Storm from St. John's takes on the Big Red from Cornell. Cornell made a trip to the Big Dance last season by running the table in the Ivy League, and winning 22 games. What is missing from Cornell's 22 win team from a year ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NBA Basketball
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Monday November 17, 2008 9:00 pm
The Utah Jazz seem to get no respect from the odds-makers, when they are playing at home. They have opened the season with a 4-0 mark at home, and finsihed last season with a 27-1 mark at home in their last 28 regular season games. That brings the mark to 31-1 in their last 32, with ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NFL Football
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Monday November 17, 2008 8:35 pm
I'll start this by saying I have examined extensively the weather forecast in Buffalo, and the weather will not be a factor in this game. many here the nmention of the word snow, and the total begins to dive. A game that opened at 42.5 is as of this writing 40.5, and falling. the ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Miami Ohio Redhawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers Monday November 17, 2008 7:00 pm
The Peterson Events Center, and the Pitt Panthers play host to the Miami of Ohio Redhawks tonight, and most likely without the services of Gilbert Brown, nursing an injury. Pittsburgh is definately a Final 4 candidate, especially with a healthy lavance Fields in the lineup, but these ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Missouri State Bears @ Central Michigan Chippewas Monday November 17, 2008 7:00 pm
Missouri St. has lost a lot from last year, but what has transpired early, has been mind-boggling. Missouri St's top two returning players are on the shelf tonight with injuries, as well as 3 other expected contributors on a very young, inexperienced team, that was expected to finish ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NFL Football
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Sunday November 16, 2008 8:15 pm
Dallas will get Tony Romo back, but how effective will he be, and what kind of game plan will they use against the Redskins? I would think they will ease him back in, and not take chances downfield. The redskins are going to be without Portis, and that will likely lead to a controlled ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East