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What makes a professional handicapper good?

by: Mr East

There are many who read this that always wonder what makes a professional handicapper different from anyone else trying to pick games in what is considered an efficient sports market. There are many reasons, but only one good one. I'll begin by identifying the marketplace for sports wagering as one that is very highly efficient. This is what I mean by an efficient marketplace. Last season for example, and you can look at numbers for any sport at the end of the season and it will be just about the same. The NBA from last season shows numbers like this ATS:

CategoryRecordPercentAway Teams633-660-2148.96%Home Teams660-633-2151.04%Favorites666-623-2151.67%Dogs623-666-2148.33%Away Favorites203-194-651.13%Away Dogs429-463-1548.09%Home Favorites463-429-1551.91%Home Dogs194-203-648.87%

If you look closely the largest winning area were home favorites that covered 51.91% of the time. The marketplace for sports wagering, after broker commissions is 52.38% to break even. What this information deems, is the sports wagering market is highly efficient. The next catergory deals with totals proositions, and here is the composite table:

CategoryOversPercentUndersPercentOvertime Games6192.42%57.58%Non-Overtime Games57246.54%65753.46%All Games63348.88%66251.12%

As you can see the highest value in the NBA last season was taking unders, which won 51.12% of the time. Again, a very efficient marketplace, as 52.38% is required to breakeven.

You can look at any chart, any season and the marketplace is almost exclusively efficient. So then back to my initial thought of what makes a professional handicapper good? Well, one reason is marketing. A professional handicapper that is a good marketer will make tons of money, regardless of his record, because the marketplace is filled with desperate gamblers trying to make money in an efficient marketplace without the money management skills, or the know how to succeed, and calls on someone's hype to bail him out of a crisis, or just the "sickness" of constantly losing. A professional handicapper that is a good marketer will succeed in this marketplace by default. Next there is the professional handicapper that understands how to find inefficiencies in an efficient market, by countless time spent to exploit such inefficiencies. This professional, without good marketing skills will have great expertise, tons of success, but no clients!!!! He will lie undiscovered, or barely discovered. So that means the best pro handicapper is the person that can market himself effectively, and find inefficiencies in an efficient market. That pro is worth his weight in gold! So what do I mean by inefficiencies in an otherwise efficient market, and how do you find them? Here is exactly what I am referring to, and it is an expansion of a previous article I posted here on exploiting NFL Totals. The NFL totals market is efficient, with a yearly rate that comes up within the threshold of profitability. That means OVERS vs UNDERS are always within the 52.38% range, so the market is efficient. Where it isn't efficient is with the high totals. Football gamblers love high scoring teams, games, and overs. The oddsmakers realize when 2 offensive-minded teams clash on the field, the scoreboard, in the eyes of the gambler can't hold the points, so the totals are padded, and become inefficient to the professional gambler, but unknown to the betting public. This is where the professional handicapper earns his money, and becomes a true professional. Like the stockbroker, the realtor, that spends their entire day seeking inefficiencies of the marketplace, that is the life of a good professional handicapper. I can speak for myself, and say this. I spend the bulk of my day, and some nights too, seeking inefficiencies in the marketplace, to offer clients as solid selections. Here is the proof on NFL totals of 45.5 and higher:

These are the stats from 1979 through 2007 (last season)

45.5 and higher            302-243      55.41%

46.5 and higher            217-166      56.66%

47.5 and higher           191-146       56.68%

As you can see by the above data and research, the market gets more inefficient with each added point to the total in this range. This is what makes a good professional handicapper worth his weight in gold. Most gamblers look at this and say, well that isn't high enough, winning 56.68%. Anything over 52.38% is high enough, because the market is efficient! Card counters get banned in Casinos, for tilting the edge in their favor by 1-2%!!!! Why? because they will make a lot of money, and they will make it consistently. This is the stuff, that makes a professional handicapper worth his weight in gold, and personally I spend all my time looking for inefficiencies in an efficient market. It is why the recreational gambler will never be able to do this on his own consistently, as he will be trying to compete in an efficient market, and it is a matter of time before the odds catch up to him, or his money management catches him first, one of the other will do him in with 100% certainty. Like a research scientist, there are many 10-12 hour days of searching for an inefficiency in the marketplace, but coming up empty! It takes countless hours of dedication, and understanding what to look for, that makes a professional handicapper exactly that!  

Mr East Past Articles

Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more

March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more

Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more

Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more

Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more

All Mr East Past Articles

More past picks...

All Mr East Past Picks