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What You Should Know About NFL Gambling
by: Mr East
I have been at this for about 25 years, and there is a lot that goes into handicapping a game, and there are a lot of gamblers out there that tend to make mistakes because of inexperience, or just a plain misunderstanding of math, sequences, streaks, hot, cold, pick the variable and it almost surely applies. I wanted to take the time to set the table on something that will always lead the misguided gambler to the road of the coin flip, and a 50-50 outcome that will have him reloading his account, and shaking his head each and everytime.
During the course of an NFL season there will always be teams that streak good and bad during the course of the season. We see bad teams rattle off several in a row ATS, or good teams falter for what seems like weeks on end. The question is twofold. Do you allow yourself to latch hold of these streaks, where seeing a team covering 4,5,6, even 7 weeks in a row and play on them? Do you jump on the fade wagon when teams start to get on a losing streak ATS? The second part of the question, is should you jump on or off these streaking teams? I'm here to provide the answer that may, or may not surprise you.
Going back 25 years in the NFL, which covers a lot of games and a lot of streaks, here is the answer. teams that covered 2 in a row, are 1017-1004 ATS in their next game. Teams that covered 3 in a row are 449-466 ATS in their next game. Teams that reach 4 straight covers are 187-216 ATS in their next game. When they get to 5 they are 80-84 in their next game. By the time the streak reaches 6, they are 30-38 ATS in their next game, and finally at 7 they are 12-12 ATS in their next game.
The lesson in all of this is don't think playing on a team on an ATS streak is hot or cold, because the next game is just as close to a 50-50 proposition than any other team. There is no advantage gained or lost. Gamblers like to be in a comfort zone, so playing a streaking team is comfortable, but it is never profitable longterm as you can see.
Looking at the negative side of this we find teams that have lost 2 in a row ATS are 1010-964 in the next game, 3 in a row it becomes 436-433, at 4 in a row it becomes 193-192, at 5 in a row it becomes 82-87, at 6 in a row 34-34, and at 7 it is 15-12.
We find the same thing, a long ATS losing streak, or one of any kind should not influence your choice on a game, because psychologically it may encourage, or deter you, but financially it will not show you a profit. The biggest thing to remember here, is if you like a game, don't let a long ATS winning streak by their opponent deter you from playing it, as it is a complete non-factor! Likewise, don't let a long ATS losing streak deter you from playing on a team you like. Just like it should never be the reason to take or fade a team, it should also never be the reason to stay away from a game you like.
here's wishing you a profitable balance to the football season, and if you like what you see in my results, just know you'll get your money's worth, many times over!
EAST
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
MLB Baseball
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals Monday May 21, 2012 8:15 pm
: I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
WNBA Basketball
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
