We Are the Champions
by: Marc Lawrence
It’s Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Super Bowl XLV in Arlington, February 6. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on the teams that figure to advance. Our database does, too.
There are generally two schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week’s card. You can look at them statistically, or you can analyze them technically.
While having varying opinions on which of the four teams will and advance, and why, handicappers alike often times speak in foreign tongues. With reasons ranging from players and coaches to fundamentals to situations, the views are many.
But since our database has a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers germane to our query. Here are answers to five queries we posed to the database and the answers we found surrounding NFL Championship games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise.
Q – How have home teams fared in this game?
A – NFC hosts are 22-8 SU and 18-12 ATS, while AFC home teams are 19-11 SU and 16-14 ATS.
Q – Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?
A – Favorites have owned the edge, going 40-19 SU and 33-26 ATS, including 31-17 SU and 30-18 ATS when laying less than 10 points.
Q – How do teams that own the better record perform?
A – As the majority of time these are almost always the home team, the record for teams with a better win percentage are solid, going 39-16 SU and 32-23 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of less than 10 points these better record teams are 29-15 ATS.
Q – How do road teams playing off a road game fare?
A – Not all that well, as you might imagine. These guys are just 9-21 SU and 12-18 ATS and 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS when playing off back-to-back road games.
Q – How has the Over/Under fared in these games?
A – Surprisingly, these games have had a tendency to fly over the total in this round, going 26-15-1 ‘Over’ in games since 1990. More specific, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder have gone ‘Over’ in title games to a greater degree as those with a total of more than 46 points have played ‘Over’ the number in eight of 10 occurrences, while totals of less than 41 have gone 11-4-1 to the ‘Over’ as well.
There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week’s card. Enjoy the games…
Marc Lawrence Past Articles
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