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WNBA Playoff Research
by: IndianCowboy
Yesterday: 1-0: Ravens -2 (POD): Relatively EZ Winne, 8 of 12 Winning Days, Won all 3 NFL Sundays, Yet to have a Losing NFL Sunday, 3 of 4 Winning College Football Saturdays.
New York vs. Connecticut
The series here is tied at 1. This team beat Connecticut at home and covered the first ballgame, only to come back and lose to Connecticut in the second ballgame, but they did cover the 6 point spread as they lost by a possession. The WNBA does their playoffs a bit better in my opinion as if you are the lower seed, the playoffs start on your home court and then moves away from you for the remainder of the playoffs. So, in essence, it let's the dog have a greater chance of a 1-0 lead in the playoffs which creates even more interest and excitement. Imagine for example, if the Hawks held a 1-0 lead against the Celtics to start the playoffs, wouldn't that create more excitement than the other way around. Heck, my Hawks took the C's to 7 games - that's better than what the Lakers did. Note, the other cool thing about the first round of the wnba playoffs, is that it lasts just 3 games. So both of these games are the deciding games on who will go the playoffs. Thus, it comes down to this final game in Connecticut. The line here opened up here at -5 and has gone up to -6. But, when any team fights elimination they are going to have fight in them, and the Liberty come off a loss as well. The previous 2 games in this playoffs have gone under between these 2 teams as well. One would think the final game would feature more defense but I don't think it will be the case, I'm going with my dog/over theory here. Lean on the Liberty and the over here.
Sacramento vs. San Antonio
What's interesting about this game, is that it opened up at -6.5 and quickly jumped to 8 points. Really? In an elimination game where both teams are tied up at 1, the spread is 8? Well, the public here has become split evenly on the ballgame. But, in the same token, the Silver Stars were heavily favored to win this series, but regardless, Vegas put the spread at -6 as they did for the Suns, and were pounded hard enough to get the spread to rise to -8. Heck, it reminds of me the Ravens who opened up at a basic pick-em and were pounded hard to -2 which made me look at that game as more money went into it despite the public backing it. Sac has exceeded expectations in both games as they both went over, and note, the away team has won both of these games. How shocking that Sacramento actually rolled into San Antonio as 8.5 point dogs, after losing at home as -2 point favorites and coming back on the road and winning by 17 outright, essentially covering by around 25 points. I know it looks like the 3rd game might go over as well because the previous 2 did, but I think this game likely goes under. Look, I can't see the Silver Stars defense giving up this many points once again - for them to give up 84 points at home is a stretch and notice that the opening total line wasn't all that high even with 2 previous overs, lean on the under this game, don't have a lean on the side, just the total.
Comp Selection for Monday (not one of the premium picks, just an honorable mention)
Monarchs/Silver Stars Under 145 (Game goes off at 9:05pm Eastern)
Additional Write-up:
If you want to read the full Research for this game it is posted above. As per the additional write-up, I just don't see the Silver Stars getting embarassed at home here. Keep in mind that I wouldn't want to lay this many points in an an elimination game, but I do favor San Antonio to do that here, I do like the under. Hence, the favorite/under theory that I have which is parallel to the dog/over theory. I think San Antonio comes out fired up, plays great defense and ends up winning this game as the public feels that it will go over by a 2:1 margin, but I just don't believe so as there are many factors that point to the under here - although I do feel that it will be a tight cover. But, I don't think it is highly improbable for this game to land in the high 130's. The under is 5-2 for the Monarchs following an ATS win such as the last game, which goes to show they have trouble repeating success as they have all year and although there are many previous trends pointing to the over here such as the first 2 ballgames in this series, I'll take the under.
NFL
Jets vs. Chargers
Have a play on this game. It's my only play for Monday and the POD. To purchase: Click Here:
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