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WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT BACKFITTING DATA
by: Mr East
For those of you that have never heard the term backfitting, let me give you a descriptive idea as to what is meant by backfitting. Backfitting data takes place when added conditions are placed upon a data set to improve overall performance. As an example, let's say a data set consists of one premise: The Green Bay Packers are 74-63 ATS at home since 1976. That doesn't get the attention of many gamblers. So the next step is to add a condition that makes it look better. So it look something like this: The Green Bay Packers are 70-52 ATS at home after a loss. Then a second condition may be added: The Green Bay Packers are 58-36 ATS at home after a loss by 7 points or more. Then a 3rd condition may be added that leaves: The Green Bay Packers are 57-30 ATS at home after a loss of 7 points or more on a Monday night. Backfitting by definition, improves the original premise. Everytime you put a condition on something stated from an original premise, you are going to add to the overall percentage of winners, but in the end, they aren't going to add any value to the game about to be played, because they are meaningless additions, that do more to make you feel good, thean they do to help you win. The best way to show you what this looks like in a real life example would be the following, unrelated to sports:
Sally is a very poor student, and her overall average on all tests is 50. (the exact same result if you flipped a coin). Sally has done better when the test was given on a rainy day, where her average test scores on rainy days has been 56. What has been even more noticeable is Sally has scored a passing grade on all her tests on rainy days, where her mom also took her to school, her performance increased to 60. Sally has done even better when it rains, with thunder and lightning, and her mom takes her to school, as her average score has been 64.
So the gambler if this was sports sees this:
Bet on Sally an F student with a 50 average to pass her test if it is raining with thunder and lightning, and her Mom took her to school.
It totally makes no sense at all, but we the gamblers look at this stuff all the time and put value on it. What happens when you begin to backfit data is the sample size gets smaller, and the reliability of the original data gets compromised with each added condition. By the time you get to several conditions added to make the data look worthwhile, and get attention, it is so distorted, it becomes completely useless and unreliable.
The best data, and most relaiable data has one condition, over 100 games in the data bank. These you can count on to be mostly reliable, anything else is just going to disappoint you, and shrink your bankroll.All MREAST systems are based on one condition, and my success has been made by combining these one condition systems along with sound handicapping skills to produce winners.
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
MLB Baseball
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals Monday May 21, 2012 8:15 pm
: I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
WNBA Basketball
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
