NCAAF SATURDAY VICTORY CIGAR ON TOBACCO ROAD (Sat 12PM)
MREASt has a big 5***** BOMB in ACC play and he will continue his 60% rampage on the books with this winner. Get MREAST'S full Saturday card chock full of premium winners in all sports.
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MREAST NCAAF SATURDAY BOOKIE BUSTER (Sat 12PM)
MREAST has completed 12 weeks of the NCAAF season at 60%. He has a big winner here, and is making a big run to his Bowl games that will clcik at an even higher rate!
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MREAST NBA PLAY OF THE DAY! (Thu 8PM)
MREAST scored the easy cash on his NBA Total of the Year, with the Cleve/Detroit UNDER. Overall MREAST is connecting on 68% in the NBA at 15-7. He has another easy winner in tonight's action.
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WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT BACKFITTING DATA
by: Mr East
For those of you that have never heard the term backfitting, let me give you a descriptive idea as to what is meant by backfitting. Backfitting data takes place when added conditions are placed upon a data set to improve overall performance. As an example, let's say a data set consists of one premise: The Green Bay Packers are 74-63 ATS at home since 1976. That doesn't get the attention of many gamblers. So the next step is to add a condition that makes it look better. So it look something like this: The Green Bay Packers are 70-52 ATS at home after a loss. Then a second condition may be added: The Green Bay Packers are 58-36 ATS at home after a loss by 7 points or more. Then a 3rd condition may be added that leaves: The Green Bay Packers are 57-30 ATS at home after a loss of 7 points or more on a Monday night. Backfitting by definition, improves the original premise. Everytime you put a condition on something stated from an original premise, you are going to add to the overall percentage of winners, but in the end, they aren't going to add any value to the game about to be played, because they are meaningless additions, that do more to make you feel good, thean they do to help you win. The best way to show you what this looks like in a real life example would be the following, unrelated to sports:
Sally is a very poor student, and her overall average on all tests is 50. (the exact same result if you flipped a coin). Sally has done better when the test was given on a rainy day, where her average test scores on rainy days has been 56. What has been even more noticeable is Sally has scored a passing grade on all her tests on rainy days, where her mom also took her to school, her performance increased to 60. Sally has done even better when it rains, with thunder and lightning, and her mom takes her to school, as her average score has been 64.
So the gambler if this was sports sees this:
Bet on Sally an F student with a 50 average to pass her test if it is raining with thunder and lightning, and her Mom took her to school.
It totally makes no sense at all, but we the gamblers look at this stuff all the time and put value on it. What happens when you begin to backfit data is the sample size gets smaller, and the reliability of the original data gets compromised with each added condition. By the time you get to several conditions added to make the data look worthwhile, and get attention, it is so distorted, it becomes completely useless and unreliable.
The best data, and most relaiable data has one condition, over 100 games in the data bank. These you can count on to be mostly reliable, anything else is just going to disappoint you, and shrink your bankroll.All MREAST systems are based on one condition, and my success has been made by combining these one condition systems along with sound handicapping skills to produce winners.
Mr East Past Articles
Mr. East's Weekly Look at NCAA-F Title Chasers
The Turkeys will soon be on the table, and that only means one thing. The college football season is winding down, and teams are jockeying for position, ... read more
Where the Value is in NCAA Basketball
Has parity snuck down to the College Basketball level now? Do we have the gap between top to bottom in all conferences that shows, the difference is not ... read more
Mr. East's Weekly Look at NCAAF Title Chasers
It has been another interesting week to say the least in college football. Penn St. bit the dust in Iowa City, and the BCS unbeatens are down to Texas ... read more
The Decline of Home-Field Advantage in the NFL
If you go back in the NFL with the inception of Monday Night Football, the rage with the novelty was the home underdog, which seemed to present blind ... read more
MREAST'S WEEKLY LOOK AT NCAAF TITLE CHASERS
What a game between Texas and Texas Tech. It was a nearly impossible spot for Texas, having played 3 undefeated teams in a row, and heading to Lubbock ... read more
Mr East Recent Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:30 pm
This is a huge division rivalry game, that usually turns out being played very physical and ugly. The Pistons have spent most of the early part of the season on the road, as they have played only 3 home games thus far. The one home game worth noting was a similar game vs the Celtics ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Football
Ball State Cardinals @ Central Michigan Chippewas Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
The Ball St. Cardinals are flirting with an unbeaten season, and I don't think it comes to an end here. C. Michigan is an average team with a very misleading record. The Chippewa's have won 6 straight, and come in 8-2 on the season. The fact is they have won 5 games by 3 points or ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Ball State Cardinals @ Butler Bulldogs Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
Butler finsihed their season 30-4 last season. Butler plays a very disiplined style of basketball, with a defensive half-court mindset. That system must be learned a new, as all 5 starters from that 30-4 team are now gone. The Bulldogs have some good recruits, and one returning top ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NBA Basketball
Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:30 pm
Not sure why, but the odds-makers keep posting the Golden St. Warriors in a range that they play over at home, against everyone. When the Warriors are home they simply dictate the tempo, and their 5 home dates this season have averaged 213.6ppg. This is nothing new, as the Warriors ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Nevada Wolf Pack @ San Diego Toreros Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:00 pm
I like the idea of taking dogs, that in my opinion are the better team, and getting points. San Diego gained late noteriety with NCAA win vs Uconn, so they will be over-priced early. nevada lost a couple key players, but that's the case every season, this is a program that gets good ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Football
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Kent State Golden Flashes Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
The kent offense is very one-dimensional, and it all falls in the hands of Julian Edelman. Edelman is not only the QB with a big arm, he is the top running back for the Golden Flashes, and went over the 1,000 yard mark on the season last week vs Temple. The one thing Edelman is guilty ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Cornell Big Red @ St John's Red Storm Monday November 17, 2008 9:30 pm
The Preseason NIT Tips off in Beantown Tonight, and the red Storm from St. John's takes on the Big Red from Cornell. Cornell made a trip to the Big Dance last season by running the table in the Ivy League, and winning 22 games. What is missing from Cornell's 22 win team from a year ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NBA Basketball
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Monday November 17, 2008 9:00 pm
The Utah Jazz seem to get no respect from the odds-makers, when they are playing at home. They have opened the season with a 4-0 mark at home, and finsihed last season with a 27-1 mark at home in their last 28 regular season games. That brings the mark to 31-1 in their last 32, with ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NFL Football
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Monday November 17, 2008 8:35 pm
I'll start this by saying I have examined extensively the weather forecast in Buffalo, and the weather will not be a factor in this game. many here the nmention of the word snow, and the total begins to dive. A game that opened at 42.5 is as of this writing 40.5, and falling. the ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Miami Ohio Redhawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers Monday November 17, 2008 7:00 pm
The Peterson Events Center, and the Pitt Panthers play host to the Miami of Ohio Redhawks tonight, and most likely without the services of Gilbert Brown, nursing an injury. Pittsburgh is definately a Final 4 candidate, especially with a healthy lavance Fields in the lineup, but these ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East