Getting Value on big home faves in NHL Playoffs

by: Nite Owl Sports

When we look at this WE’s two NHL match-ups between Detroit and Dallas today, and Pitt and Philly on Sunday, we see the two likely Stanley Cup finalists, Pitt and Detroit, ready to drive the final nail in the coffins of each of their semi-final opponents and move on to this eagerly anticipated final round, where we actually should have some competitive games and decent money line prices. But for now, we must deal with liking both home faves to win after being upset on the road in game 4, but seeing them prohibitively priced on the money line, each at ridiculous odds of –250>.

 We’d like to bet both of these faves, who we are quite certain will (both) win, but even winning two games at such heavy odds is like treading water. For example, if we decide to lay $50 on each fave (for a total risk of $100) on the money line at-250, we will win only  $40 total, even if both bets win, and that’s a faster way to the poorhouse than the penthouse. One way to get better value on these faves is to bet them both on the –1.5 goal “puck line,” which gives much better odds of about +110 for each team, but when we lay the –1.5 goals on the puck line, we stand a chance to lose even if our team wins, but just by one goal. Most hockey fans have probably tried betting puck line faves with varying degrees of success, having to endure too many of those wild last minute finishes, where your team is up by a goal and one minute you’re yelling at the opposing team’s coach to pull the goalie, and the next minute you’re on your knees, praying that your team gets a garbage goal into an empty net to transform what looks like an excrutiating half goal loss into an exciting half goal win. While the payoff is nice when you win, the frayed nerves caused by those “empty net goal watches,” where the much coveted empty net goal occurs only about one out of every five times that a late game one goal lead situation arises, more than offsets the benefits of a nice “plus money” payoff if your team does make you a puck line winner by scoring a win of two or more goals.  

So what do you do to bet both of these teams on the money line while getting decent odds? The best method to use in this situation, in our opinion, although it is probably still underutilized by most bettors, is to parlay the two big money line faves to each other. If we do that with these two teams, Pitt and Detroit in their respective games, we get about an even parlay payoff (lay $100, win $100), assuming each team is -250 on  money line. But in this case, although both teams must win, that’s all they need do – just win (for you to win and your parlay .to pay off). Another plus from doing progressive parlays like on these two games is that when the games are on different days, like these two, you can also re-bet the later game in the unlikely event the first game of the two loses.

Let’s look at some likely outcomes for these two games, all of which assume that both faves will at least win outright, and see how we would do risking $100 (on both games, combined) using each of the three conventional approaches:

First situation -- Detroit wins by two goals, Pitt wins by one goal.

The two money line bets of $50/20 each, at odds of –250 each, both win, for a total off just $40

One puck line (-1.5 goals) bet at +110 wins, the other one (same odds) loses, for a net of just $5.

Both money line plays win, and parlay pays off  $100..

Second situation – both faves win by 2> goals.

The two money line bets of $50/20 each, at odds of –250 each, both win, for a total off just $40

Both puck line (-1.5 goals) bets at +110 win, for payoff of $110

Both money line plays win, and parlay pays off  $100.

Third situation – both faves win SU but both win by only one goal

The two money line bets of $50/20 each, at odds of –250 each, both win, for a total off just $40

Both puck line (-1.5 goals) bets lose for total of -$100.

Both money line plays win, and parlay pays off  $100.

 So as you can see above, using a two team  money line parlay wins $100 in all three of the above scenarios, and is a better betting alternative, especially in these two games, than either betting these games individually at such high money line prices, or betting them individually using the –1.5 goal puck line.  

If you really want to get adventurous with parlaying these teams for an even better return, may we suggest parlaying them not only to each other, but also to our 5 unit ATS sides pick in our Big Easy NBA Playoff Sides Game of the Year (now available at our early bird rate of just $35) Monday night in New Orleans, for a return of +270 (risk $100, win $270) when all 3 of these games win. Given that Nite Owl Sports is 23-15 for +14 units in NBA over the last two weeks, after sweeping the board for +9 units with our 3 winning picks on Lakers and Cavs games last night, that would appear to be a pretty wise investment.

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