Are Undefeated College Teams Overvalued?

by: Jim Kruger

”The Upset Special” was the favorite menu item this past week at the College Football Diner as three of the top five teams and seven of the top 13 in the USA Today coaches poll went down in flames. Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Rutgers, and West Virginia were all upset outright in very entertaining games.

Do teams get overvalued by the linesmaker when they are 4-0, maybe even more so when they are 5-0? Does the public push the line up by blindly betting on these teams that look like sure winners? Using the 2000 season as our beginning base, you get some interesting results.

If the 4-0 team is on the road and favored, there is no edge as the undefeated team is 24-23. As a dog, they are slightly better hitting at 16-11, a 59.25% cover rate. Kansas at Kansas State this week falls into that subset.

However, if the team is at home and favored, if you just blindly bet against this team you would have a record since 2000 of 34-14, a 70.8% winning percentage against the spread. It appears one could surmise that 4-0 teams at home are greatly overvalued. Are there any of these overvalued teams playing this Saturday? Yes, a couple of them qualify under this situation.

How about the Missouri Tigers going against the Cornhuskers from Nebraska? A quick look at the ATS records for both teams would seem like Missouri would be the choice. After all, Nebraska has failed to cover their last four games including a very close win at Wake Forest and a lucky one-point victory at home against the Ball State Cardinals, 41-40. Nebraska didn’t inspire confidence for their backers last week in leading Iowa State at home by four points at halftime before winning by 18 points with the benefit of a 93 yard interception return for a touchdown in the second half. However, they still failed to cover the 21-point spread.

Missouri is 3-0 against the spread with the afore-mentioned 4-0 straight-up record. Their last game was a non-lined win over Illinois State. The Tigers are off of a bye week. If you follow our 70+% winning angle mentioned above and put your money on the Huskers, perhaps your chances will be enhanced if the Tigers spent some downtime at one of the best sports bars in the nation, Harpo’s in Columbia, MO. Maybe they partook in some of the worst drinks ever served across a counter, the mind-altering “Black and Gold” consisting of Jägermeister and Goldschläger. How about a couple of shots of Drano to really clean your system out?

The NU-MU game should be a fun one to watch with two quarterbacks throwing the ball all over the field, Nebraska’s Sam Keller and Mizzou’s Chase Daniel. The winner of this game will be at the forefront for contention of the Big 12 North title with the winner of the Kansas-Kansas State game.

The other game that falls in our 70+% system is taking Stanford plus the multitude of points over USC. You have to be a believer in new Cardinal coach Jim Harbaugh, and not be overly concerned that this is Stanford’s first road game.

We have talked about 4-0 teams, how about 5-0 teams? Good question, let’s take a look. Teams with the good fortune of being undefeated after five games and are now playing away and are favored, are a pathetic 7-22 against the spread since 2000. If you are a believer in playing these undefeated road favorites, you are only winning your wagers at a very sad 24.1% rate. Ohio State and Arizona State fall into this very poor covering situation when they go on the road this week to visit Purdue and Washington State respectively.

The general public loves to play favorites, this is a well-known fact. The two angles mentioned above makes you realize that it is not always profitable blindly betting favorites, especially undefeated teams.

Sports betting is a fascinating endeavor. Looking at results from past history does not always mean they will replay themselves in the current environment. However, it does give you a firm starting place to work from.

Good luck this week!

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