Tuesday Morning Coffee Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

by: John Ryan Sports

Tuesday Morning Coffee

September 9, 2008

Pittsburgh at Cleveland 1:00 EST
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UNDER Pittsburgh/Cleveland – AiS shows a 73% probability that 44 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-9 for a remarkable 78% since 1983. Play under with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a home win, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. 25-year systems stand the test of time and are generally more rare than other shorter term systems. In fact, I have statistically shown in several published reports that systems of 10+ years and more have an increasing mathematical relevance the more years that it has been a valid money maker. Let’s not forget however, that the sole reason we are making this play is due to the Ai S grading. The supporting cast of systems, and angles, and matchup research serve only to reinforce the play. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 89-40 for 69% UNDER since 1983. Play under with any team in a conference game against the total that was marginal winning team from last season sporting a winning percentage of 51% to 60% playing a team that had a winning record.

Now, let’s take a look at some of the fundamental reason why this is a solid UNDER play. In past meetings (Steelers have won 15 of the past 17) the Browns have attempted to pressure Steeler QB Roethlisberger with a variety and steady dose of blitz schemes. The defensive strategy has not worked well enough and the Brows will undoubtedly adopt a defensive game plan that bends but does not break. The Eagles defense under DC Johnson has done this for the past several seasons. It essentially is to allow the opposition to move the ball in little chunks and then tighten up dramatically as the offense approaches the red zone. This is effective because the end zone acts as a backboard and the defense becomes less concerned with the deep routes.

The Texans did this last week and kept Roethlisberger and the Steeler offense from making huge plays and exploiting any blitz that was minimized by the OL. The Steelers will want to control the LOS with the punishing running game. Parker had an excellent game last week and it was based on running at the interior line and then bounding out to the side lines for additional yards. Cleveland has the personnel that will be disciplined enough NOT to collapse on the initial OL surge and will prevent the bounce to the perimeter.

The exact same game plan will occur when Cleveland has the ball and the Steelers will be even more effective in preventing scoring drives. Cleveland has to reply on executing pass routes and this will prove difficult against the Steeler secondary.

A key matchup for ball control drives for the Browns is getting TE Winslow on SS Polamalu. Winslow is one of the most athletic TE in the league and he presents big matchup problems for any DC knowing that he is too fast for LB and too big for CB to defend him. This will enale the Browns to execute high percentage pass routes to Winslow; essentially like running plays down the seams and towards the middle of the field. All of the aforementioned takes time off of the clock with few situations that would warrant a time stoppage. Cleveland will want to keep the game as close as possible and shorten the game to the 4th quarter where they would have a chance for the upset. The Steelers will want to wear down the Browns defensive front over the first 3 periods. Remember though, this fundamental analysis serves only to reinforce the grading produced by the Ai Simulator.

Thanks for a great week of sales and your continues loyalty; some of you have been with me for more than 15-years. I am very confident that this weekend will be another profitable won with several 7* monster plays already identified for the NCAA and NFL ranks. I appreciate the trust you have in my research and methodology of picking winners and I promise to keep doing the same for the foreseeable future.

John Ryan Sports Past Articles

Ryan's Red River History View
Texas will host No. 1 Oklahoma and are installed as 11 point dogs this Saturday. Seems the public is all over the Sooners and initially, who could argue ... read more

Have the Phillies Begun to Reach their Potential?
The Philadelphia Phillies have established the best record in baseball despite having a largely inconsistent offense. I would not advise anyone on betting ... read more

World Series Futures Bet
My favorite and most profitable sport just started Spring Training. MLB is a sport that so many amateur betters disregard and lose solid money making ... read more

Humanitarian Bowl Preview
College Betting Preview By John Ryan The uDrove Humanitarian Bowl Northern Illinois at Fresno State Saturday, December 18, 5:30 PM ET Bronco Stadium, ... read more

Boise State hosting Utah State
College Football Betting Preview By John Ryan Utah State at (9) Boise State 3:00 PM ET, December 4, 2010 Bronco Stadium, BOISE ID Boise State favored ... read more

All John Ryan Sports Past Articles

More past picks...

All John Ryan Sports Past Picks