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Tourney Motivation

by: Bryan Leonard Sports

While watching all the tournament games this week, does anything stand out? How about all the upsets? As usual, upsets and surprises dominated the highlights. George Mason did it again, a team that went to the Final Four in 2006; VCU not only beat Georgetown but blasted them, 74-56, and Louisville going down on opening night.

Upsets happen a lot in March and will continue. Sometimes it’s matchups, but other times it is interest and motivation. That explains the demise of Tennessee, pulling a no-show against Michigan knowing that their coach is likely gone.

The No. 8-seeded Wolverines built on a 33-29 halftime lead by opening the second half on a 19-2 run to put the game away. The Vols failed to close back within single figures thereafter due in large part to 18 turnovers and numerous missed shots and defensive breakdowns. "We unraveled,” Bruce Pearl said.

Michigan became the first team in NCAA tournament history to win a game without making a free throw; the Wolverines missed their only free-throw attempt. The margin of defeat was the largest in Pearl's six seasons with the Vols.

Motivation is huge this time of the year, not just for the Big Dance but all these other tournaments going on. Who wants to be here? Who really cares about playing? Some teams look at invitations to the NIT or CBI as a reward for an overachieving season, while others look at it as a snub as they had their hopes set on the Big Dance.

Missouri was a great example a few years ago of a team in turmoil just packing it in, and it wasn't a surprise to see them exit the Big 12 tourney fast, failing to cover in their only game. That put the Tigers 2-11 SU, 2-10-1 ATS the last 13 games! Like Tennessee might have now, they had a coach leaving the program and gave up on the season weeks ago.

Motivation is important to bring up. Some teams underachieved during the regular season, but now have a second chance in this third season to make amends. Pay just as much attention to this next week, too, because you can identify teams that are delighted to make the NCAA tourney and others that are disappointed to have to settle for an NIT bid. The NIT offers excellent examples of teams that really don't want to be there.

It's more important to look at how a team is performing over the last few weeks, rather than the whole season. This gives a much clearer picture of where the team is. Indiana was a good example a few years ago. The Hoosiers weren't a bad team, they ended the regular season 17-10. They just stumbled in January and early February, losing 7 of 8, before regrouping. What made their situation appear even worse was the controversy surrounding then-head coach Mike Davis. The appearance was of a team in total chaos and collapse, but they then regrouped and won 5 in a row, even upsetting Michigan State late in the regular season.

Coaching is another factor to look at. Old timers like John Wooden, Dean Smith and Red Auerbach were masterful at finding ways, day in and day out, to keep teams focused and motivated. Roy Williams, Bill Self, Mark Few and Coach K are current day master motivators. Their teams can be beat, but they are rarely outhustled.
  
When examining whether you think a team might be packing in the season or disappointed in an NIT bid, check the head coach of that team. Look at other places that coach has been. Did his teams win? Did they pull upsets regularly? Did they play defense? Did they excel in tournament play, or fall flat too often? Coaching, motivation and interest make major differences in how a team plays on the court and ultimately against the number.


Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles

The Zig Zag Theory
Let’s talk about zigzags. No, that’s not some ski slope maneuver. Nor is it someone who says one thing and then does another. Sports bettors ... read more

NBA Playoffs Betting
The NBA playoffs are off and running. There are a lot of ways to analyze who has the edge, from matchups, key statistics (rebounding, turnovers), spread ... read more

NBA Personnel Changes and Lineups
Like a stock broker, a good handicapper has to keep up with the changes that take place on and off the court. This is particularly true this time of year. ... read more

NBA Embarrassment
Many teams get embarrassed during an NBA season, even the playoffs, which are approaching. After all, it's a long season and even good teams get smacked ... read more

The NBA Stretch Run: Does Anybody Care?
Does anyone really care in the NBA? I'm not talking about fans, I'm referring to the players. Certainly a lot of players have pride and want to give their ... read more

All Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles


Bryan Leonard Sports Past Picks

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers Sunday May 20, 2012 10:30 pm
San Antonio at Los AngelesPut a fork in em, this series is over. Teams with a 3-0 series lead dominate in game four, and no team wants to close this out more than the Spurs who will likely face the run and gun Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. The Clippers gave it all they ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
Minnesota at MilwaukeeThe Twins offense has been in hibernation for most of the season so we are able to find value at a reduced price. The team is hitting well as of late producing 11, 4, 11 and 5 runs the past four games. The True Runs scored in those four contests resulted in ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Saturday May 19, 2012 10:30 pm
 Oklahoma City at Los AngelesThe Lakers used a late surge last night to take victory from the jaws of defeat. They shot an amazing 41 of 42 from the free throw line in doing so. Now on short rest they must duplicate that result in order to even up this series. We're betting ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Saturday May 19, 2012 7:15 pm
Boston at PhiladelphiaJohn Lester has owned the Phillies in his career with a 0.43 ERA in 21 innings. He's currently in great form and with this very limited Philadelphia lineup we could see the talented lefty going very deep into this game. Blanton has a great deal of experience ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Friday May 18, 2012 8:05 pm
Boston at PhiladelphiaHome favorites in round 2 are a positive subset and tonight we find a solid spot to take the Sixers laying a small price. Philadelphia has matched up very well against Boston this season with depth being a key factor. Boston exploded for 52% shooting last time ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Friday May 18, 2012 2:20 pm
Chicago at ChicagoFirst inter league matchup of the season takes place at Wrigley Field this afternoon. Jeff Samardzija has a solid 5-1 true record on the season. (You can read about our True Record stat in a previous article). It's by far the best mark for any Cubs pitcher as Paul ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres Thursday May 17, 2012 10:05 pm
 Los Angeles at San DiegoDespite playing in pitcher friendly ballparks when facing the Padres Aaron Harang posts a mediocre 4.36 career ERA against the Padres. His 3-5 record certainly doesn't inspire confidence especially with the Dodger's all everything MVP favorite out of ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Thursday May 17, 2012 7:05 pm
 Miami at IndianaThe Miami Heat are now 1 for 22 from the 3 point line in this series, yet the pairing is tied at one game apiece. The Heat have been out rebounded yet the series is tied. The loss of Bosh will hurt but Miami was such a heavy favorite in this series before the ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Tuesday May 15, 2012 9:35 pm
LA Clippers at San AntonioTerrible spot for the Clippers who had to go the distance with Memphis and win a short handed game on the road just to advance. The Spurs are the vastly more experienced team and they own a major rest advantage. The line is high for a reason and unlike last ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins Monday May 14, 2012 8:10 pm
Cleveland at MinnesotaThe Twins have finally gotten to the point where they are producing value. To make Pavano a sizable home dog against the slumping offense of the Indians is simply a mistake. Pavano, a former Indian, has a career ERA of 2.83 against the Tribe. Gomez has a bright ... read more