Thursday's MLB Thoughts and Leans

by: Evan Altemus

Here are my MLB thoughts and leans for Thursday April 22nd.

In the Detroit/Anaheim game, I really have no lean on the side.  I think the game will be close and will come down to which starting pitcher plays better or which bullpen comes through.  Verlander and Saunders are both quality pitchers who are in about the same current form.  Both line-ups are hitting about the same as well.  I could see this game finishing maybe 5-4 or 4-2, something around there.  As a result, I think the total is a no play as well.  

Tampa Bay crushed Chicago last night after losing to them in the 1st game of the series.  That opening series loss by the Rays was probably due to them having a letdown after sweeping the Red Sox.  In addition, they had to face the White Sox best pitcher in John Danks.  Chicago is still struggling to hit, and I feel that will continue all season.  They occasionally have strong offensive games, but those are anomalies, as this team is not a high scoring line-up.  I think there is good value on Tampa Bay with a slight edge in pitching and a major edge in hitting.  This play might be a premium selection for me later on today.

This afternoon's match-up between the NY Yankees and Oakland is setting up to be a great pitchers duel.  C.C. Sabathia and Dallas Braden have been excellent this season, which is surprising for Sabathia because he usually struggles early on.  He has also pitched well against the A's.  The Yankees are going for the sweep here, and I definitely lean towards them despite the high price.  Braden has not pitched well against the Yankees in his career and was hit hard by them last season.  The Yankees are the better and hotter line-up right now as well.  I would definitely look to New York as my only play in this game because of the total being so low.  They are also crushing left handed pitching this season, hitting over .300 as a team against them.

One of the more interesting games today is between Florida and Houston in my opinion.  The Astros have quietly gotten hot after a horrendous start to the season.  Houston has won the first two games in this series, but they are still underdogs in this game.  There is some value on Houston in my opinion because it will take a little while longer for them to be priced appropriately after their rough start.  The starting pitching match-up is basically a wash here because Florida starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled so far this season.  If you think that he will pitch well in this game, then maybe Florida is worth a look.  However, this game is a complete pass for me because I don't trust Houston starter Felipe Paulino.

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