The Two Biggest Keys to Sports Handicapping

by: Evan Altemus

First and foremost before I continue with this article, note that the title says the two most important sports handicapping keys, not sports betting keys.  Sports betting and sports handicapping are two different topics.  A person can be a very good sports bettor without being a good sports handicapper and vice versa.  With that being said, if you follow and understand these two keys, then you will be a good sports handicapper.  To be a good handicapper, all it takes is a very strong understanding of these two thoughts.

PRO ATHLETES ARE JUST LIKE YOU AND ME - Whenever I tell someone I'm a handicapper, they ask how do you determine which team is going to win?  I proceed to use an analogy related to their job.  For example if a salesman just closed on one of his biggest sales of the entire year then has to handle a small client next, he is not likely to put his strongest effort forth and nothing like what was required to close that big client.  However, everyone in his company is expecting big things from him because of his recent big sale.  Consequently, that salesman might be a little over-rated coming off of a huge deal and doesn't work as hard on that smaller client because they aren't anywhere near as important as the deal he just finished.  Pro athletes are the same way.  They are human.  These people have ups and downs just like you and me.  The key to finding value and consistent winners in sports handicapping is to find motivational ups and downs.  This key is the strongest sports handicapping concept in my opinion.  There are two reasons for this.  First, teams are likely to perform much better or much worse than they usually do because of motivation or lack thereof.  Therefore, they easily win or lose from a point spread perspective.  Second, you are using the oddsmakers knowledge against them.  They are forced to make point spreads in relation to team's true talent levels and true power rankings.  However, motivational factors cause teams to perform well above or below the rankings that oddsmakers have for them.  Motivational factors are the most important key to sports handicapping.

UNDERSTAND TEAMS JUST LIKE YOUR INDUSTRY - For this theory, I'll compare it to the banking/investment industry, but it applies to other industries as well.  I was sitting on a flight to Las Vegas last year and was listening to two investment guys talking about the various market collapses.  They both discussed how they saw it coming because of this thing and that thing and how they knew the various investments and mortgages were garbage because they watched how the mortgages were packaged.  So how does this relate to sports handicapping?  If you know the teams you're betting on like your industry, then it makes handicapping much easier.  What I mean by that is if you follow a certain conference or team closer, then you know their ups and downs, how they match up against certain teams, or maybe how an injury would help or hurt the team.  Think about your home team and how you know their tendencies more than other teams.  You are able to see these things because you have a knowledge similar to that of the industry that you work.  This knowledge needs to be taken advantage of.  Some people might call it inside information but with the vast amount of media, there is no such thing.  All you have to do is conduct an internet search of a few local newspapers to get a supposed "insiders edge".  That's garbage and just a sales ploy.  Having a strong knowledge of individual teams similar to that of your industry is key to successful sports handicapping.

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