WUNDERDOGS MONDAY MLB MONEYLINE PLAY OF THE DAY! (Mon)
Wunderdogs MLB MONEYLINE plays are smoking hot, having picked up over $1,400 for his $100 per unit players during the past week. The Dog is all over a MLB MONEYLINE game today - enough to give it the Highest Rating of the day! Get it now!
WUNDERDOGS MONDAY NBA PLAYOFF PUNISHER! (Mon)
Wunderdog has some master systems that have been systematically taking down the books, one game at a time one winner at a time. Over the past month, the Dogs NBA playoff picks are hitting 60% at 63-37, good for +47 units. Be sure to get on board with todays NBA PLAYOFF PUNISHER!
WUNDERDOG'S MONDAY NHL BOOKIE BURNER! (Mon)
The Dog is back on the ice today ready to BURN THE BOOKS. This hot play is ready to melt the ice and beat the books. Wunderdog Sports is up +110 units with his NHL picks during the p past seven months at 237-189.
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The Two Best Bad Teams in the NFL
by: Wunderdog Sports
What does a coin flip have in common with the Cowboys and Chargers?
The Dallas Cowboys and San Diego Chargers were considered Super Bowl contenders at the start of the year. They now sit collectively at 3-8. Two cities are collectively on suicide-alert and many sports bettors are perplexed. Are these just bad teams that were never deserving of the preseason praise? Possibly. But I think it’s probably something different.
I belive these two teams are much better than they appear and have largely been victims of mostly random bad luck. I know, most of you are going to decry me a numbskull for a statement like that. That’s fine. I may be wrong. But I may be right!
Yes, I know both of these teams have perennial whipping boys at coach. I won’t argue that Norv Turner and Wade Phillips are great coaches. They both have demonstrated that they can lose games for their teams. Neither seems to have the fire-and-brimstone approach that we associate with great coaches.
But, are they the sole reason these teams have so radically underperformed expectations? I don’t think so. I think they have contributed to the problem, but there’s got to be something more at play here. Six games into the season, I might attribute one extra loss to each of these guys, but at 3-8, there is something else at play here.
So is it the talent? Are these teams really just not that talented? The reality is that that by one important measure (yards gained and yards allowed), these two teams are playing brilliantly! How brilliantly? Consider that Dallas is ranked 4th in the league in total defense and 3rd in the league in offense. Think about that – they are in the top 5 in both offense and defense, yet sit at 1-4. The story with San Diego gets even crazier! San Diego leads the league in BOTH offense and defense. That’s right, they are #1 in offensive yards at 433 per game and #1 in defensive yards allowed at 255 per game. Yet they sit at 2-4.
How insane is it to have a team that leads the league in both yardage categories own a losing record? Well, it’s never been done. Since 1970, there have been a total of 19 weeks in which a team has owned the best offense and defense (as measured by yards). Prior to this year, the combined record of the teams involved at the time they led the league was 62-6. Yet the Bolts are 2-4. That’s what you call a statistical anomaly.
So what is the reason we have these two teams that have moved the ball so well, and have stopped their opponents from moving the ball very well, losing 73% of their games thus far this season? A lot of it is luck. Bad luck.
It’s not all luck. Again, some poor coaching, undisciplined play (penalties) and bad special teams play have contributed. These items are at least in part in the control of the team and can be considered skill vs. luck. But, some penalties and special teams performance (one missed tackle) is due to luck. Turnovers also have a skill and luck component, but these are largely luck. San Diego is -3 in turnovers and Dallas is -5.
Most people underestimate the role of luck in their lives, and on the football field. There have been books written on the subject (see Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers). Most people assume that when a team is winning, it is skill, not luck. They assume that if they get a promotion and a high-paying job, it’s skill, not luck. They assume that if a team is 1-4, it’s due almost entirely to skill, not luck. Just Win Baby. The reality is that luck plays a much larger role in our lives than we tend to admit. One or two bounces of the ball and these two teams aren’t 3-8 but maybe sitting closer to .500. Take their especially bad luck and make it especially good, and they are both winning teams.
What does this all mean for us as sports bettors? It means that these two teams are quite likely to be undervalued, on average, the remainder of the season. Regression to the mean is a term statisticians use to describe the phenomenon of abnormal outcomes approaching the expected outcome over time. In other words, if a team is really unlucky for a while, chances are their luck will even out and they will improve. It’s not guaranteed, but it’s likely. If a team is very lucky, that great luck isn’t likely to continue at that same rate. If a good team is somehow losing a lot of games, they are likely to find more wins in the future.
Another way to look at this is to ask the following question: If a fair coin is flipped 10 times and comes up heads 8 times, what is the expected outcome if that same coin is flipped 100 more times? The answer is that we should expect something very close to 50 heads and 50 tails, not 80 heads. The same holds true for the record of football teams. If we think the Chargers and Cowboys are actually above average teams (I do), and their horrible records thus far are due largely to dumb luck vs. an inherent skill problem (I do), then we should expect a reversion to the mean. We should expect them to win more games than they lose the rest of the season.
Now, over the short term, anything can happen. Over the short term, more bad luck can certainly ensue. And, the quality of their opponents have a big impact in the short-term. So, I am not guaranteeing that one or both of these teams will become winning teams this season.
What I am saying is that there is likely value in backing these teams moving forward. As public sentiment turns against them, the lines they face will be shaded. As a result, there will likely be value in backing them. And, the more they lose, the greater that value will become.
Wunderdog Sports Past Articles
MLB April: Winning is Easy
Winning in the early part of the MLB season is easy.Actually, it’s easy but it’s also very hard.Why is it easy? It’s easy because there’s ... read more
MLB Picks Previews 2012 – AL East
MLB Picks Previews 2012 – AL EastPredicted Order of Finish 1. New York Yankees 2. Tampa Bay Rays 3. Boston Red Sox 4. Toronto Blue Jays 5. Baltimore ... read more
Packers Go Undefeated A Good Bet?
This is an interesting bet that I believe provides value. Right now you can take the “No” on this proposition for -170 (sportsbook.eu, betus) ... read more
Will the Packers go undefeated this season?
This is an interesting bet that I believe provides value. Right now you can take the “No” on this proposition for -170 (sportsbook.eu, betus) ... read more
Value on the Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are up 2-0 in their series vs. the Lakers. To turn this around and win this series, LA must win 4 of 5 games with only two home games. ... read more
All Wunderdog Sports Past Articles
Wunderdog Sports Past Picks
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers Sunday May 20, 2012 10:30 pm
The LA Clippers find themselves down in their series to San Antonio three games to none. They came out yesterday like gang-busters, building a 24 point lead. It looked as if they were paving their way into getting back in this series, then the wheels fell off and San Antonio out-scored ... read more
MLB Baseball
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday May 20, 2012 8:05 pm
Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is huge, a great pitcher's park. St. Louis got a dose of that yesterday in a 6-0 loss to LA. At least the Cardinals are armed for this one with Kyle Lohse (5-1, 2.70 ERA), who has had a fine season. It's imperative in a big park like this that you don't ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
A pair of inept offenses meet in the Bay area. Oakland is on a 6-1-1 run under the total with an offense ranked 28th in runs scored, 29th in slugging and on-base percentage, plus a miserable team batting average of .215. The UNDER is 15-6-1 in the Athletics last 22 interleague ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
The Indiana Pacers humiliated the Miami Heat in game three at home by 19 points, to take a 2-1 series lead going into game four at home. It was utter humiliation for Dwayne Wade who shot 2-13 and saw the Heat at -25 when he was on the floor. It is the first time since November of ... read more
MLB Baseball
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
You have to pay attention to teams that get the money as a dog and the Royals are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog. Kansas City has turned things around, winning five of eight games, including a win over these Diamondbacks yesterday, 7-3. They face an Arizona team ... read more
MLB Baseball
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Sunday May 20, 2012 2:05 pm
Is mighty Texas vulnerable anywhere? Sure. The Rangers are 2-5 in their last seven interleague road games and 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games against a right-handed starter. They're also vulnerable, as every team is, when they get lousy starting pitching and that's the case ... read more
MLB Baseball
Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays Sunday May 20, 2012 1:40 pm
A pair of powerhouse teams meet in interleague play, but Atlanta has a key weakness: The Braves are 7-16 in their last 23 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. They don't face any old southpaw in this one, but hard throwing David Price (6-2, 3.10 ERA), an ace with a 45-10 ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
Look for a low scoring game. The UNDER is 25-9 in the Marlins last 34 road games, 5-0 UNDER the total in their last five road games against a right-handed starter and 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Lowe attributes his turnaround this season ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
That hot streak the Marlins were on out West is over. This team has come back to earth at 4-4 the last eight games, including losses of 7-0 and 2-0 in two of the last three nights. This is the end of a 5-game road trip and the Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games vs. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
A good price on the NY Yankees at home with their ace. The Bronx Bombers play their best baseball at home with a powerful offense that is seventh in runs scored, and 4th in on-base percentage and slugging. Ace C.C. Sabathia (5-1) takes the mound with the team 6-1 his last 7 starts. ... read more
All Wunderdog Sports Past Picks
