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The NBA Defense vs Defense
by: Mr East
I have had great success in the NBA, hitting 60% of over 175 picks, and I am a non-stop research machine. I spend hour upon hour doing the dirty work, that finds a lot of winning edges, market inefficiencies, in an otherwise efficient market. The NBA is known more by its offensive stars, like Kobe, and LeBron, and many love the scoring teams, such as Golden St., and Phoenix, and Indiana this season, along with the Knicks now led by Mike D'Antoni. What most don't pay attention to is what happens on the defensive side of the ball. I took a look at the top 10 NBA defenses in terms of points allowed, since that is the ultimate determining factor in any sport, beside golf, where the high score wins.
What I did was looked at teams that were both in the top 10 in points allowed and how they fared to the total when playing each other? There is a margin for error here, because teams that are in the top 10 now, might not have been at the time they faced each other, but restructuring the season based on who is in the top 10 now, shows when these teams meet, the UNDER has been 49-26-1 ATS or covers 65.3% of the time. Those are some impressive numbers, but what is usally the case, the oddsmakers usually catch up and thwart the profits. The point is, if at the beginning of the NBA season you hone in on the teams that are playing defense, your likely to score big with the unders when they face each other.
I also looked at how the offenses looked under the same set of circumstances, those games that pitted a top 10 offense vs a top 10 offense in terms of points scored a game. The numbers based on the present configuration of 1-10, shows the OVER would have been 47-36 ATS or 56.6%. Not quite as good as the defensive side, but certainly profitable. I must say, that these numbers are with a margin of error because it is based on now, not the time they played, and a few could of been out of the tp 10 at the time.
One interesting footnote. The top 10 defenses feature just 1 team with a losing record on the season, Charlotte, who incedently is also 32-22 ATS on the season, while the top 10 offenses feature 3 teams with a losing record. Maybe that might back up the ole saying that Defense wins Championships! The last 6 years the NBA Championship has been won by a team that finished either 1st or 2nd in points allowed during the regular season, and in one other year a team that finished 1 or 2 was runnerup. CLEVELAND AND BOSTON own the top 2 spots right now. The top 2 offenses over the past 5 seasons has never had a team reach the NBA finals. Currently the top 2 teams are LA LAKERS and Golden St. Can the Lakers break the trend?
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
WNBA Basketball
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
