The Consensus: Useless, Meaningless, Nonsense

by: Vegas Jack

I have been involved with sports gambling for nearly the entire duration of offshore betting. After gaining an applied science degree in Sportsbook and Casino Management, I have been fortunate enough to have worked in numerous sportsbooks and casinos. Over the past four years I have been focusing strictly on football and basketball wagering. In those four years the industry has grown, a lot. There has been a massive increase in volume, wagers and availability of information. The world of offshore betting continues to grow each day on the internet. Ten years ago this industry was estimated at 3 billion per year. Now estimations have exceeded 500 billion. In such a massive industry, how is it that millions and millions of dollars are wagered based on a single number? How is it that a single number has such an influence over peoples judgement? How is it that this number determines for a large part how we all bet each and every day? How is it that a number with this much power has never been questioned or researched before?

I am not talking about the point spread? I am talking about the consensus.

Arguably the most influential piece of data we all take into consideration each bet we make is the consensus number. How many people are betting which side? Where is the money going? Is this a square play? Is this a sharp play? Am I on the right side of the consensus? These numbers have the influence to persuade bettors to play one side or another more then anything else. Nobody wants to be on the side that 80% of the “public” is backing. Since “public” money is always dead money, why would anyone want to be on that side of the game. Furthermore, no one wants to appear to be a “square” wagering money on a big public team”. It would appear with these numbers at your disposal, winning at sports betting should be simple, right? Fade the “square” play to victory each and every Sunday.

To dig deeper into this ever powerful number, I followed in the footsteps of Christopher Columbus and sailed off to investigate the seemingly unknown world of the consensus number.

Type “Sports Betting Consensus” into Google. The first result you get is Covers. I would set the line at -130 that Covers is over 40% of the average players who bet sports frequently online home page. For those of you unaware, Covers is the unofficial home for sports betting on the internet. They have the biggest community with just over 100,000 members and have the biggest stream of fresh data regarding trends, lines and history. They are also home to the most popular “consensus” report on the internet. I would wager that these numbers are the most looked at stat in all of sports betting on the internet. But, does anybody actually know what this number is based on? When I emailed Covers to look further into this, I got this response back.

“Our consensus numbers are based on information provided to us from multiple offshore sportsbooks as well as those in Las Vegas.”
- Covers Support Team

If you believe that reply is the honest truth, well I am sorry I think you are a lost cause. Just by simply opening a “match-up” tab on a game listed at Covers you can see the attempt to make this look official. They have an ad sponsoring that consensus report. There is a nice flashy banner and a breakdown of what percent of bettors are on a certain side of the total or spread. Common sense rules out this possibility for a number of reasons. First off, the consensus is one of the most protected pieces of information a sportsbook has. From working in numerous sportsbooks as a teller, shift manager and odds management, we all had to agree to a confidentiality clause not to disclose this information. I can guarantee you that no sportsbook out there is disclosing this information, especially to one of the most, if not the most popular sports gaming portal on the web.

So, where does this number actually come from?

I ruled out the website manufacturing numbers. I just do not think that a website of this stature would compel themselves to do such a thing. It also seems far too automated for that to be a case. Plus, if these numbers were falsely generated, how can you take stake in a minute sample size? Most games average between 3,000-5,000 results. Sports betting is a 500 BILLION dollar a year industry. Do you think these 5,000 people make up for that total? If these were the true numbers from a sportsbook and Covers was telling the truth, how can you base your opinion on what is most likely much less then 1% of the total sample size.

These numbers have to come from somewhere though, right? After looking further and searching more into things, I came to the factual conclusion. All consensus reports on Covers are based strictly from the former Wagerline.com and now Covers Contest results. For those of you unaware again, Covers has a Contest section of there website. This allows people to register (for free) log in and make picks against each other to compete for cash prizes at the end of the season. As these picks are submitted into these contests, a consensus report is generated. What does this ultimately mean? The consensus reports that so many people use to base their opinion on where the money is going and what the “sharp” or “square” side is are based on FREE Pick em’ contests. These numbers that are claiming to represent where the money is going, are ironically based on no money at all. These numbers generated are based on zero monetary value what so ever. If you do not believe me, log in to your existing or create a new account on Covers, log in and make a pick in the contest. Look back at the play you made and see how your one pick moved that consensus number up by one.

Since so much in this industry is advertisement and marketing driven, I do not look down on Covers for playing this off as an ad scheme. It is probably a massive cash generator for their company. I do find it very misleading and almost shady that they are leading bettors down the wrong path. Then again, they are a sportsbook promotion website. There are ad’s wall to wall representing online sportsbooks, what can you expect?

The truth of the matter is that any sports gaming portal is filled with loads of misleading information. You are playing against these sportsbooks, why are you getting your information from websites that are filled with opinions and predictions from unknown sources on a website put on by your opponent. If the Rams are playing the Bengals in the NFL, do you think the Bills call up scouts from the Bengals staff and ask what to look for this week? Of course not. If you go to a website sponsored by your opponent, do you think they are going to give away their key information? Of course not. It is and always will be impossible to know exactly what the public size is on any bet.

It is still unknown how much money is wagered each year in Las Vegas and Offshore. This means that it is unknown how much money is wagered each game. You can always know the results of 5,000 free pick em contestants by going to this website. You may always be able to know the results of 5,000 big money bettors because you’re running a bookmaking operation. At the end of the day there are millions and millions of dollars wagered that you don’t know about making much more of an influence then you will ever know.

Stop worrying about these consensus numbers. Stop worrying about what is the “square” and “sharp” side. Stop worrying about where the money is moving. Start putting your time into researching the parts of the game at hand and researching the line and where you get the best odds for your money. Don’t let this information influence you the wrong way. Base your plays on the concrete information. I guarantee by doing this you will put more money in YOUR wallet and less in your bookies.

Vegas Jack Past Articles

The Consensus: Useless, Meaningless, Nonsense
I have been involved with sports gambling for nearly the entire duration of offshore betting. After gaining an applied science degree in Sportsbook ... read more

Looking Ahead With an Oddsmaker
Looking Ahead With the Oddsmaker Richard Williams has been a bookmaker in the offshore industry for over a decade. He was the first person to hire ... read more

Extra Stuffing: Thanksgiving Week Rivalry Trends
Extra Stuffing – Turkey Week College Football TrendsBy: VegasJack (@vegasjack2)Don’t have time to do your football research this holiday weekend? ... read more

Four College Hoops Systems to Follow
Between Monday and the end of February there will be 5,772 NCAA Basketball games played. Here are a couple of profitable trends that I use to help navigate ... read more

My "Bettor Half" A Perfect Second Half NFL Trend
Gamblers tend to become emotional upon realizing the season is nearly half over. I, on the other hand, find elation in knowing a prosperous betting opportunity ... read more

All Vegas Jack Past Picks