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Matt Fargo Sports

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Texas A&M Aggies vs. BYU Cougars Preview

by: Matt Fargo Sports

Texas A&M Aggies vs. BYU Cougars Thursday, March 19, 2009 12:30 PM ET

The Betting Numbers

If this matchup looks familiar, then you have a good memory as the Aggies and Cougars squared off in the first round of last season’s NCAA Tournament. Last season, the seedings were identical as BYU was the eighth seed and Texas A&M was the ninth seed but it was the Aggies that were a slight favorite as they closed at -1. This year, the Cougars opened as a two-point favorite almost everywhere and it has remained steady, sitting at -2 in most places. At Pinnacle, the number opened at -5.5 and was bet down to -2 in a span of 15 minutes. Hello middle! The total is remaining steady as well, hovering between 139.5 and 140.

Series History

This is the third meeting between BYU and Texas A&M. The Aggies won the first round game last season 67-62 behind 26 points from Josh Carter but after starting the game on an 11-0 run, Texas A&M had to hold off the Cougars and the game was not decided until the final minute. The only other meeting came in 1972.

The Teams

Texas A&M closed the season very strong with six consecutive wins heading into the Big XII Tournament. The Aggies faced Texas Tech in the first round, a team they defeated twice during the regular season, but they came up small in losing to the Red Raiders by five points. The time off will help the injured ankle of Carter who is listed a probable but still may not be 100 percent. While that rest is good for Carter, it may not help the entire team as they will have gone a span of 12 days with playing only one game.

Texas A&M went 7-7 away from home this season including 2-2 in neutral court games and it was outshot on average both from the floor and from long range. The Aggies, long known for poor free throw shooting, had a decent 69.1 percent success rate from the line this season but that drops to just 66.4 percent in road games. They finished with a below average 0.95 assist/turnover ratio and that looks stellar compared to its dismal 0.65 ratio away from home.

BYU had another strong season as it finished as the regular-season co-champion in the Mountain West Conference along with Utah and New Mexico. The Cougars bowed out in the second round of the MWC Tournament against San Diego St., a team they had defeated twice during the regular season. That loss snapped a five-game winning streak and BYU closed the season on a solid 10-2 run over its final 12 games. This included a 9-1 finish to the regular season, the fourth straight year that BYU has closed out the regular season going at least 9-1.

The Cougars, who have one of the toughest home courts in the nation, performed very well on the road, going 11-5 away from the Marriott Center. BYU actually averaged more points and hit for a higher shooting percentage from the floor, long range and at the free throw line in its road games and that is a very rare feat. The Cougars posted a very solid 1.43 assist/turnover ratio and while that drops in road games, it does not drop much, dipping to a still solid 1.30. Despite playing in a weaker conference, BYU finished with a schedule ranked only seven spots lower than the Aggies.

Against the Numbers

The Aggies were 14-10 ATS for the season and most of that success came late. Texas A&M went 5-7 against the number in its first 12 lined games but then it really heated up with covers in 10 of its final 12 regular season contests. The Aggies were lethal as underdogs this season, going 9-3 ATS while winning six of those 12 games outright. As an underdog of fewer than three points, they were a perfect 4-0 ATS. The only problem I see with that is that three of those games were at home while another took place in Houston against LSU. Still, a 5-2 ATS mark as a road underdog is very good.

BYU finished 17-14 ATS this year as all but one game had a line associated with it. Despite going 14-2 at home, the Cougars finished only 6-9 ATS as they had to deal with some really big numbers on their home floor. They went 4-7 as a chalk of more than 12 points. The road was a completely different story as BYU went 11-5 ATS in its 16 road games and that included an 8-4 ATS record as a favorite. It isn’t all rosy as the Cougars were 0-3 ATS as a neutral court favorite but they only missed the cover by a combined 10.5 points in those three games.

Intangibles

BYU has not made it out of the first round in its last six NCAA Tournament appearances, as it has not won a game since 1993, when it beat SMU in the first round…The Cougars became the first team in the history of the MWC to win three-straight conference titles… BYU is in the Thursday-Saturday pool because the Cougars do not play on Sundays (meaningless for this match but still interesting)…Texas A&M is one of only 16 teams to have made the NCAA Tournament the last four seasons…The Aggies blew a 21-point lead against Texas Tech in the Big XII Tournament so that has to be forgotten…Texas A&M was 11th in the nation in free throw attempts (820).


Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles

NCAA Preview: New Mexico St. Aggies
2011 College Football Previews New Mexico St. Aggies Offensive Starters Returning…7 Defensive Starters Returning…7 Looking Back… ... read more

College Basketball Top 25 Matchups
Matt will be taking a look at the weekend top 25 matchups in college hoops every Saturday. This week has four games featuring a matchup of teams from ... read more

2009 SEC (East) Preview
The SEC has long been considered the toughest conference in football and rightfully so. It has produced the last three National Champions, Florida twice ... read more

2009 Big XII (North) Conference Preview
As strong as the Big XII South is, the North is just the opposite. There are good teams within the division no doubt but it is unlikely that any team ... read more

2009 Big Ten Conference Preview
Many say that the Big Ten was in a down year in 2008 considering only five teams finished the season ranked in the top 50 in the national power ratings. ... read more

All Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles


Matt Fargo Sports Past Picks

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats Thursday February 9, 2012 9:00 pm
Northwestern is coming off a big road win on Sunday at rival Illinois and now it is being asked to lay a big number against a team that possesses a better conference record. The Wildcats are now 4-6 in the Big Ten following two straight wins but getting that third straight victory ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes Thursday February 9, 2012 9:00 pm
It has been a rough season for Virginia Tech but things have been so close to being a whole lot better. The Hokies are only 2-6 in the ACC but of those six losses, four have come by four points or fewer with the other two coming at the hands of North Carolina and Duke. Virginia Tech ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NBA Basketball

Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Thursday February 9, 2012 8:05 pm
After the Lakers brought home the NBA title back in 2009-10, the Celtics went to Los Angeles in the first meeting last season and defeated the Lakers by 13 points. The Lakers then returned the favor in Boston by way of a six-point victory so last season the road team won both of ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Arkansas Little Rock Trojans @ UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Thursday February 9, 2012 8:00 pm
This is a big game in the Sun Belt Conference but the line is not telling us that. Arkansas-Little Rock leads the SBC West Division by a half-game over tonight's counterpart and that being the case, this line is off a few points in my opinion. The Trojans are riding a three-game ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NHL Hockey

Winnipeg Jets @ Washington Capitals Thursday February 9, 2012 7:05 pm
Washington had a big win on Tuesday over Florida and the Southeast Division did another flip-flop. With the victory, the Capitals went from ninth place to third place in the in the Eastern Conference as they now have a one point lead over the Panthers. That makes this a pivotal game ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Thursday February 9, 2012 7:00 pm
Here we have a very good team, NC State, trying to get some road revenge on a very bad team, Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack lost at home last month by 11 points and it really was an inexcusable loss as they were riding a six-game winning streak and had just won their ACC opener over ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Wednesday February 8, 2012 8:30 pm
Nebraska used to own one of the better home court advantages when it was part of the Big XII Conference but the home floor has not been a very big edge this season. The Huskers were decent during the non-conference portion of their schedule but even some of those wins were suspect, ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NBA Basketball

Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:35 pm
The Hawks are in a funk right now. After winning five of six games to close out January, they have lost their last three games, all of which have come at home and all were very winnable games. Losing to Memphis and Philadelphia are not horrible losses but the most recent defeat against ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NBA Basketball

Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:05 pm
Cleveland has played a very tough schedule since the end of January as it has faced Boston twice, Orlando, Dallas and Miami over its last five games and coming out of those at 2-3 isn't that bad. The Cavaliers are coming off a loss at Miami last night as the game was relatively close ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Kansas Jayhawks @ Baylor Bears Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:00 pm
Kansas is coming off a tough loss on Saturday at Missouri and things will not get any easier here as it travels to Waco with first place in the Big XII on the line. The Jayhawks and Bears both trail Missouri by a half-game but this game is arguably bigger for Baylor. A loss here ... read more