Individual Team Totals for Best Value – Part 1

by: Nite Owl Sports

Anyone who has made many totals bets in the past week or so has probably had his share of frustration. With all due apologies to those who may have been “bitten in the ass” by one or more of these games, let me mention a few.

In college football’s final bowl game Monday night, the BCS title game between LSU and Ohio State, there was probably more money bet on the total than on either side, most of it being on the under, based on the line movement during the 2-3 days leading up to the game, and the final sharp drop of the totals line to 46.5 at many books an hour or two before game time. However, those over players who put in their bets when the line was still 48.5 and 49 didn’t know if they had a winner until LSU’s final “insurance” drive in the last minute of the game, with the score 31-17, put the final score over the total. However, it wouldn’t have been necessary to pray for that late TD by LSU to put the game over, if one’s over bet had been limited to Over (24 or 24.5) for the # of points to be scored only by LSU against Ohio State’s annually over-rated defense, which was absolutely shredded to pieces by a quicker Florida team (much like this year’s quick LSU team) in last year’s BCS title game. Maybe that over in the BCS title game partly makes up for the unreal nightmare experienced by over players just the night before, when Tulsa scored a whopping 63 points against Bowling Green in one of the two after New Year’s “nothing bowls,” but the total stayed under because Bowling Green could not “hold up its end of the deal,” scoring only a pathetic 7 points against one of the worst defenses in college FB this year. I wish I could say that Nite Owl had Tulsa as our Bowl Game of the Year, but we didn’t, due to their horrible defense. But in the write up of our one unit pick on the game, we strongly advised our customers to bet over 41 for # of points to be scored by Tulsa (an easy winner), even though that seemed like a huge number.

In last weekend’s four “wild card” NFL playoff games, over bettors were frustrated in one of them (NY Giants vs Tampa Bay) which ended up with a final score one point under the totals line, while a promising under bet (on Seattle vs Washington) went up in smoke due to two long INTs returned for touchdowns by Seattle in the final five minutes of the game. But the totals bets did not have to be that close on either of those games, and they wouldn’t have if individual team totals bets were used. We actually had a small pick on under in that game on this site, based mostly on the bad weather and our prediction that the Redskins would not score many points against the Seattle defense, which had given up only 14 ppg at home TY in the regular season and we expected them to come up big in this game and help the under. But the main reason for posting that under pick was that (since this site does not have a picks category for individual team totals picks) it was the only way to inform our customers that the totals angle which we really liked the most in this game was Wash under 17.5 (for # of points to be scored only by Wash), followed by Seattle over 21, with the full game under 38.5 being only our third choice, due to our concern that the Seahawks might “mess it up” with too much scoring and/or turnover points by their defense, which is what actually happened. In the Tampa-NY game, one which we saw as basically a toss-up for both the side and the total, it made sense to take under the higher individual team totals number (21 on Tampa) and over on the lower individual team totals number (18 on NY), and doing that would have resulted in two easy wins rather than one close, lucky win on the full game under or a close, unlucky loss on the full game over.

In addition to being a better way to bet game totals, taking the over or the under for one or both of the teams involved in any one of this weekend’s NFL playoff games may be a better way to go than laying more than a full TD to get the “better” team with the home field advantage, or taking a dog of a full TD or more which is playing one of the four top teams in the NFL, and in a hostile venue. Quite frankly, the thought of betting against any one of the eight remaining playoff teams, especially the four dogs this weekend, is somewhat daunting.

So, what to do? While most fans who will be watching these games want some action on one of the sides and/or the total, there are some good reasons not to bet either, but the alternative of  “sitting on the sidelines” without any action on these games is not too exciting, and for many football fans is simply unacceptable. However, the best way to get value out of these difficult to handicap games for one's weekend NFL playoff  "action" may be to bet the under or the over for one or both of the teams involved, using individual team totals lines, either exclusively or in addition to a side bet and/or a totals bet on the game.

One of the Top Ten newsletters later this week will contain Part 2 of this article, which will include a couple of free individual team totals recommendations for this weekend’s NFL playoff games, along with the reasoning supporting those recommendations. In the meantime, any readers who don’t have access to individual team totals lines should find a sports book this week that does offer such lines. While not all offshore sports books offer individual team totals betting, and most “local books” don’t either, except for the Super Bowl, the one I use (which posts individual team totals lines for all NFL, NBA and major college FB games) for individual team totals is bookmaker.com.

Nite Owl Sports Past Articles

Going Under the Radar in AFL and WNBA
Now that the NBA playoffs have ended, many amateur sports handicappers simply "pack it in" until football season, not wanting to get involved ... read more

Betting Ugly on Under in NBA Playoffs
While it varies from year to year how well (or poorly) the overs or the unders do in the NBA playoffs, the one thing that is more consistent is that most ... read more

Betting the Rest of Boston – LA Series
In Sunday’s newsletter we wrote an article about the advantages of using “in progress” adjusted series lines as a way to bet a heavy ... read more

Getting Value with in Progress NBA Series Lines
We have bet NBA series sparingly, and until this final round we did not make a single series pick TY for our Top Ten clients, primarily because the odds ... read more

Finding Value in the Game within a Game
As we now are about to start the championship round of the NBA playoffs, it gets even harder to find value on either team, and moré difficult to ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday July 2, 2008 7:10 pm
Running short on time and trying to get this in before two hour (before game time) cut-off for posting picks. Will provide more detail later.Both pitchers are good in their modes tonite, and boston not hitting, plus Tampa relief is good TY. We expect another low scoring game here, ... read more

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Wednesday July 2, 2008 7:10 pm
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds Wednesday July 2, 2008 7:10 pm
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Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels Wednesday July 2, 2008 3:35 pm
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Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels Wednesday July 2, 2008 3:35 pm
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins Wednesday July 2, 2008 1:10 pm
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Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels Tuesday July 1, 2008 10:05 pm
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WNBA Basketball

Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream Tuesday July 1, 2008 7:05 pm
The line opened at Phoenix -8, and the public has bet it down to -7 with action on the Atlanta "Dream" (more like nightmare), despite their miserable 2-6 ATS record at home, with average MOL of 12 ppg, and small, disinterested home crowds. Phoenix, after a slow start, both ... read more

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