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Super Bowl Super Stats
by: Marc Lawrence
Handicapping the Super Bowl takes on a different perspective each year.
Granted, there are a myriad of statistics, angles and trends we can draw from but the bottom line is the personalities of the teams are equally important when it comes to isolating the eventual winner.
Safe to say that sports handicappers do not hold psychiatric degrees, let’s take a quick look at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.
Faux Favorites
The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store.
As a result, the public today is badly in need of new dental health care coverage. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be a decaying experience, with favorites sporting a 19-11 SU and 12-16-2 ATS record, including 4-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.
Favorites (Green Bay) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 6-13-2 ATS.
Super Bowl chalk taking on an opponent that did not cover its championship game by 12 or more points are 8-6 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.
The last sixteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS.
Hit Me
Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.
Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don’t, lose the game and the money. It’s just that simple.
And twenty-one points appears to be the cut-line.
That’s because teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS.
Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS.
Seed Me
Going back the last 15 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game.
Last year paired both the No. 1 seeds from each conference for the first time in 16 years when New Orleans upended Indianapolis, 31-17.
Two years ago Pittsburgh downed Arizona, 27-23, while failing to cover the seven-point impost. As a result the higher seeded team (Pittsburgh) will carry a 1-11-2 ATS mark into SBV.
The last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No. 1 seed, was the ’99 Rams.
Conference Call
Like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 19-11 SU and 18-10-2 ATS.
When facing an AFC foe off back-to-back ATS wins, the NFC is 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS in games with Roman Numerals attached. However, the NFC is only 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.
One final note: this marks the first time in nine years the NFC will dress up as the favorite.
That’s an early take on this year’s Super Bowl matchup. Good luck as always.
Marc Lawrence Past Articles
2011 BIG 12 Conference Football Preview
Much like the shrink-wrap used by food packagers these days, the BIG 12 shrank to 10 teams for the 2011 season with the defections of Colorado (PAC 10) ... read more
2011 Big 10 Conference Preview
It used to be that when you talked Big 10 Football you were talking Ohio State.After all, the Buckeyes won at least a share of the last six Big Ten Championships ... read more
2011 Big East Football Preview
As referenced in last year’s pre-season preview, this always-powerful basketball conference has come a long way toward establishing a football pedigree ... read more
2011 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW
2011 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEWBy Marc LawrenceAfter leading the nation the previous four years with the most players selected in the ... read more
June Good Month Pitchers
JUNE GOOD MONTH PITCHERSBy Marc Lawrence If it’s June, school is out. And so too will be the NBA (we think). It’s also the time of the ... read more
All Marc Lawrence Past Articles
Marc Lawrence Past Picks
NBA Basketball
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Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Thursday May 17, 2012 7:05 pm
Play On: Miami Heat (Game 517)Note: When Miami travels to Indiana to take on the Pacers in Game Three of their 2nd round playoff series Thursday evening the Heat will take the court in a terrific winning situation. That's because road team in Game Three of a playoff series, ... read more
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday May 16, 2012 9:35 pm
Play On: L.A. Lakers (Game 515)Note: When the Lakers take on the Thunder in Game Two of their 2nd round playoff series in Oklahoma City Wednesday evening Los Angeles will take the court tin a powerful winning situation. That's because Game Two playoff road dogs off a loss of ... read more
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Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Tuesday May 15, 2012 9:35 pm
Play On: San Antonio (Game (506)Note: When the Spurs host the Clippers in Game One of their 2nd round playoff series Tuesday night San Antonio will take the court knowing that Game One road teams playing with one day of rest off a Game Seven win the previous series are ... read more
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Play On: Oklahoma City (Game (508)Note: When the Thunder host the Lakers in Game One of their 2nd round playoff series Monday night Oklahoma City will take the court knowing that Game One dogs off a Game Seven home win the previous series are 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS if they failed to ... read more
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