Fargo's **10** MAC TOURNAMENT **GAME OF THE YEAR** (Thu 2PM)
Matt cashed his Early 10* TOP Tourney Report on Southern Mississippi Wednesday and he comes back Thursday with another EARLY MONSTER 10* Report! Included in his recent conference tournament run are six 10* Report Winners! Those outstanding plays have been BRILLIANT all year long as his 10* Reports are 35-18-3 ATS (66.1%) YTD! Get this afternoon GOY Winner now! Guaranteed!
Fargo's **9** CBB SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *87% ANGLES* (Thu 4PM)
Matt and his Afternoon Annihilator did not see eye to eye Wednesday as Missouri went down in flames. That is the past he looks to the future and has uncovered an ABSOLUTE BEAUTY Thursday! Join him for his Annihilator that will turn into an utter B-E-A-T-D-O-W-N! This Monster is backed by INCREDIBLE 34-5 ATS (87.2%) Team Angles! Grab it now while the price is right! Guaranteed!
COMBO
Monthly
All Sports 30 Day Package
30 days of premium picks for all sports - guaranteed to win!
Weekly
All Sports 7 Day Package
Seven days of premium picks for all sports - guaranteed to win!
NFL + CFB 7 Day Package
Seven days of premium NFL and college football picks - guaranteed to win!
MLB
Seven days of premium MLB picks and analysis - guaranteed to win!
MLB Baseball 7 Day Package
$119 |
Fargo has released only one MLB Three-Pack this season (4/27) and it was a Winner as he went 2-1 with winners on +126 Detroit and +124 St. Louis! We now have excellent reads on teams and another big Three-Pack Awaits! Fargo is ready to get back to the form that saw him bring in a FANTASTIC +51.2 Units in April! Three more Underdogs! Bring home a Winning Package!
MLB Baseball 1 Day Package
$50 |
NBA
One month of premium NBA picks and analysis - guaranteed to win!
NBA Basketball 30 Day Package
$249 |
Seven days of premium NBA picks and analysis - guaranteed to win!
NBA Basketball 7 Day Package
$119 |
Today's premium NBA picks and analysis - guaranteed to win!
NBA Basketball 1 Day Package
$50 |
CBB
Seven days of premium College Basketball picks and analysis - guaranteed to win!
NCAA Basketball 7 Day Package
$119 |
Super Bowl Intangibles: The Rushing Game
by: Matt Fargo Sports
It’s pretty common knowledge in football that winning the rushing battle usually means winning the football game. That is the case throughout the regular season, the playoffs and ultimately, the Super Bowl. Obviously, picking which team is going to win the rushing battle is not the easiest of tasks since if it was, everyone would be likely winning money on sports’ most wagered-on game. Let’s do some breakdowns and see who has the best shot to win the line of scrimmage for Super Bowl XLIII.
The Rushing Game
Let’s take a look at some history first. Winning the rushing game usually means winning the Super Bowl but what exactly is the likeliness of that? Of the first 42 Super Bowls, the winning team had more rushing yards in 35 of those games which is pretty significant. More importantly for us and for the purpose of this article, the team with the greater rushing yard total is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent). So not only predicting the rushing winner gives us the outright winner but it likely gives us a spread cover as well.
The Super Bowl winner has averaged 151.2 ypg through the first 42 big games while the losing team has averaged just 87.1 ypg. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at ypc averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over 4.00 ypc while the losing team has averaged 3.64 ypc.
The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only six times in the history of the big game, most recently last season when the Giants rushed for 91 yards. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 ppg however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.
Now on to this season. When you talk about rushing, you talk about the Pittsburgh Steelers. This year is no exception but more so with the defense. The Steelers were second in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing only 80.3 ypg on 3.3 ypc. This does not bode well for the Cardinals who finished last in the NFL in rushing offense with 73.6 ypg and 3.5 ypc which was 31st in the league. In making a comparison, when the Cardinals played the NFL’s best rushing defense against Minnesota, it gained only 43 yards but they ran it just seven times the entire game, averaging a solid 6.1 ypc.
Offensively, Pittsburgh was only 23rd in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging 105.6 ypg on 3.7 ypc which was an even worse 29th in the league. Willie Parker did miss five games but he topped 100 yards only four times and only twice in his last nine games. This after going over 100 yards eight times in 14 regular season games a season ago. Arizona was decent against the run, allowing 110.3 ypg on 4.0 ypc which were ranked 16th and 11th respectively. Those averages went up by 12.4 ypg and 0.1 ypc from last season.
The postseason is a different time of year and one that can lead to drastic changes. Arizona has allowed only 77.3 ypg but its average per attempt allowed went up to 4.1 ypc. Pittsburgh is averaging 108.5 ypg on 3.1 ypc so it is obvious it is running more but having less success at it. On the other side, the Cardinals are running for more yards in the postseason, averaging 111.0 ypg but their average per attempt is just 3.3 ypc. Pittsburgh has stiffened up even more, allowing only 44 ypg on 2.4 ypc.
What can this tell us? I think it is pretty clear cut that Pittsburgh has the edge in the running game department. The offense has been very average but the success of the defense more than makes up for it. History shows this has been good enough for a win and cover but last year, the Patriots had the better numbers in the playoffs leading up to the big game and the Giants ended up winning the line of scrimmage battle. Will we see a similar turnaround or are the Steelers too good for that to allow happening? Stay tuned.
Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles
2009 SEC (East) Preview
The SEC has long been considered the toughest conference in football and rightfully so. It has produced the last three National Champions, Florida twice ... read more
2009 Big XII (North) Conference Preview
As strong as the Big XII South is, the North is just the opposite. There are good teams within the division no doubt but it is unlikely that any team ... read more
2009 Big Ten Conference Preview
Many say that the Big Ten was in a down year in 2008 considering only five teams finished the season ranked in the top 50 in the national power ratings. ... read more
2009 ACC Coastal Preview
Like the ACC Atlantic, the ACC Coastal Division was up for grabs heading into the final weeks of the regular season. Virginia Tech, thanks to a favorable ... read more
2009 ACC Atlantic Preview
Last year the ACC Atlantic was as congested as Boston rush hour with all six teams finishing with a game of each other. Boston College ended up in the ... read more
All Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles
Matt Fargo Sports Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls Tuesday March 9, 2010 8:05 pm
The Bulls have lost four straight games, the last three coming at home. This is the final home game of this current homestand before a brutal roadtrip starts on Thursday at Orlando. Chicago knows it needs to come out of here with a win before it hits the road where it has been pretty ... read more
College Basketball
Providence Friars @ Seton Hall Pirates Tuesday March 9, 2010 7:00 pm
Providence and Seton Hall go right back after it after closing out the regular season. The Pirates won that game with ease as we cashed a ticket on it and we will go right back to the well here. The Pirates were favored by a point in that game so taking four points away for the home ... read more
College Basketball
Montana Grizzlies @ Northern Colorado Bears Tuesday March 9, 2010 6:30 pm
So exactly why is Montana favored here? It is obviously based on name alone and not by the quality of these two teams. Northern Colorado has had a sensational season yet no one has seemed to notice with the exception of one place. The Bears are the highest ranked team in the Big ... read more
College Basketball
Depaul Blue Demons @ South Florida Bulls Tuesday March 9, 2010 12:00 pm
This line opened at -6.5 and I would not be surprised to see it go up by game time. This is based on records and that people love the favorites in these games. I am a fan of momentum heading into these tournaments but we have to take a closer look at things before blindly betting ... read more
College Basketball
St. Mary's Gaels @ Gonzaga Bulldogs Monday March 8, 2010 9:00 pm
Gonzaga has had St. Mary’s number over the last two seasons as the Bulldogs have won all five meetings between the rival programs. That includes a home and home sweep this season as Gonzaga went off for 89 and 80 points in those two meetings on a combined shooting effort of ... read more
NBA Basketball
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves Monday March 8, 2010 8:05 pm
This is a big time contrarian play but one that the value is squarely on our side. I have gone against Dallas in each of its last three road games and have been burnt each time. The first two were because of fourth quarter comebacks and last time out, it was able to build a big early ... read more
College Basketball
William & Mary Tribe @ Old Dominion Monarchs Monday March 8, 2010 7:00 pm
I have been a fan of William & Mary a lot this season and have backed the Tribe numerous times but this is one time that I have to go against them as the matchups simply are not in their favor. This is obviously a big game for both sides as the winner gets the automatic bid to ... read more
College Basketball
Fairfield Stags @ Siena Saints Monday March 8, 2010 7:00 pm
Siena guns for its third straight MAAC Tournament Championship on its home floor. The Saints have made it to the final game without being very dominant and actually trailing at the half in the first two games of this tournament. They cannot afford to let that happen again against ... read more
College Basketball
Portland Pilots @ St. Mary's Gaels Sunday March 7, 2010 11:20 pm
St. Mary’s has been going from inside the NCAA Tournament bubble to outside the NCAA Tournament bubble for the last few weeks and I really do not see how the Gaels can be left out of the Big Dance. Currently they have a RPI of 44 which is very solid and the biggest argument ... read more
NBA Basketball
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons Sunday March 7, 2010 6:05 pm
Houston has to be favored in this games based on the overall record comparison of the Rockets and Pistons but I still think the value lies with the home team. Houston is coming off a win last night in Minnesota which moved it within two games of .500 on the road and that is certainly ... read more
All Matt Fargo Sports Past Picks
