WUNDERDOGS MONDAY MLB MONEYLINE PLAY OF THE DAY! (Mon)
Wunderdogs MLB MONEYLINE plays are smoking hot, having picked up over $1,400 for his $100 per unit players during the past week. The Dog is all over a MLB MONEYLINE game today - enough to give it the Highest Rating of the day! Get it now!
WUNDERDOGS MONDAY NBA PLAYOFF PUNISHER! (Mon)
Wunderdog has some master systems that have been systematically taking down the books, one game at a time one winner at a time. Over the past month, the Dogs NBA playoff picks are hitting 60% at 63-37, good for +47 units. Be sure to get on board with todays NBA PLAYOFF PUNISHER!
WUNDERDOG'S MONDAY NHL BOOKIE BURNER! (Mon)
The Dog is back on the ice today ready to BURN THE BOOKS. This hot play is ready to melt the ice and beat the books. Wunderdog Sports is up +110 units with his NHL picks during the p past seven months at 237-189.
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Why Underdogs Are the Smart Bet in the NFL
by: Wunderdog Sports
Underdog or favorite? It's a choice we make 16 times per week during the NFL season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL. Here are six reasons why you should pay special attention the dogs this season when making your football picks.
1. NFL Parity
The NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams from the past several years: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, Carolina in 2004 and the Giants in 2007. None of these teams were supposed to make it that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records the year before. Unlike the college game, any given team can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to boot?
2. A Win is a Win
Again, unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team. Favorites that get up early don't typically run up the score in the NFL. It doesn't serve a purpose and in most cases, coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.
3. The Rodney Dangerfield Effect
Underdogs don't get any respect! They don't get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week's tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.
4. The Public Can't Help Itself
The average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), oftentimes pushing lines unreasonably high. We saw it during the 90's with Dallas and San Francisco . In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public "bandwagon effect." For example, in 2003, Kansas City visited Cincinnati in week 10. The Chiefs had won nine straight and seemed invincible. In hindsight, Cincinnati was the easy underdog pick. Kansas City 's defense was ranked 25 th in the league at the time. Cincinnati was on a roll having won three of their last four games and Rudi Johnson was coming into his own. Cincinnati had the emotional edge and nothing to lose by taking a shot at an undefeated team they knew they could beat. However, the public couldn't get over Kansas City 's success and spot this situation. This scenario repeats itself year after year.
5. Got Courage?
Most bettors don't have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won't be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.
6. The Point-spread Matters Less than You Think
Historically, the point-spread matters in the NFL only about 16% of the time. In other words, 84% of the time, the team that covers the spread also wins. With this knowledge, if you have underdogs that you really like (based on the right research, not a hunch), you can take them to win straight-up (money line), collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet. Usually a three-point dog will pay around $140 for $100 for a straight-up win versus $100 for $110 wagered on a regular spread-based pick. Seven point underdogs pay around $250 for $100 for a straight-up win.
What It All Means
Obviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.
Wunderdog Sports Past Articles
MLB April: Winning is Easy
Winning in the early part of the MLB season is easy.Actually, it’s easy but it’s also very hard.Why is it easy? It’s easy because there’s ... read more
MLB Picks Previews 2012 – AL East
MLB Picks Previews 2012 – AL EastPredicted Order of Finish 1. New York Yankees 2. Tampa Bay Rays 3. Boston Red Sox 4. Toronto Blue Jays 5. Baltimore ... read more
Packers Go Undefeated A Good Bet?
This is an interesting bet that I believe provides value. Right now you can take the “No” on this proposition for -170 (sportsbook.eu, betus) ... read more
Will the Packers go undefeated this season?
This is an interesting bet that I believe provides value. Right now you can take the “No” on this proposition for -170 (sportsbook.eu, betus) ... read more
Value on the Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are up 2-0 in their series vs. the Lakers. To turn this around and win this series, LA must win 4 of 5 games with only two home games. ... read more
All Wunderdog Sports Past Articles
Wunderdog Sports Past Picks
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers Sunday May 20, 2012 10:30 pm
The LA Clippers find themselves down in their series to San Antonio three games to none. They came out yesterday like gang-busters, building a 24 point lead. It looked as if they were paving their way into getting back in this series, then the wheels fell off and San Antonio out-scored ... read more
MLB Baseball
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday May 20, 2012 8:05 pm
Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is huge, a great pitcher's park. St. Louis got a dose of that yesterday in a 6-0 loss to LA. At least the Cardinals are armed for this one with Kyle Lohse (5-1, 2.70 ERA), who has had a fine season. It's imperative in a big park like this that you don't ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
A pair of inept offenses meet in the Bay area. Oakland is on a 6-1-1 run under the total with an offense ranked 28th in runs scored, 29th in slugging and on-base percentage, plus a miserable team batting average of .215. The UNDER is 15-6-1 in the Athletics last 22 interleague ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
The Indiana Pacers humiliated the Miami Heat in game three at home by 19 points, to take a 2-1 series lead going into game four at home. It was utter humiliation for Dwayne Wade who shot 2-13 and saw the Heat at -25 when he was on the floor. It is the first time since November of ... read more
MLB Baseball
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
You have to pay attention to teams that get the money as a dog and the Royals are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog. Kansas City has turned things around, winning five of eight games, including a win over these Diamondbacks yesterday, 7-3. They face an Arizona team ... read more
MLB Baseball
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Sunday May 20, 2012 2:05 pm
Is mighty Texas vulnerable anywhere? Sure. The Rangers are 2-5 in their last seven interleague road games and 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games against a right-handed starter. They're also vulnerable, as every team is, when they get lousy starting pitching and that's the case ... read more
MLB Baseball
Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays Sunday May 20, 2012 1:40 pm
A pair of powerhouse teams meet in interleague play, but Atlanta has a key weakness: The Braves are 7-16 in their last 23 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. They don't face any old southpaw in this one, but hard throwing David Price (6-2, 3.10 ERA), an ace with a 45-10 ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
Look for a low scoring game. The UNDER is 25-9 in the Marlins last 34 road games, 5-0 UNDER the total in their last five road games against a right-handed starter and 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Lowe attributes his turnaround this season ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
That hot streak the Marlins were on out West is over. This team has come back to earth at 4-4 the last eight games, including losses of 7-0 and 2-0 in two of the last three nights. This is the end of a 5-game road trip and the Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games vs. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
A good price on the NY Yankees at home with their ace. The Bronx Bombers play their best baseball at home with a powerful offense that is seventh in runs scored, and 4th in on-base percentage and slugging. Ace C.C. Sabathia (5-1) takes the mound with the team 6-1 his last 7 starts. ... read more
All Wunderdog Sports Past Picks
