Simply the Best Super Bowl Prop

by: Mr East

Let me begin by saying that the 1,000s of prop bets out there are designed to suck extra money out of your pocket, and force you to wager on things you never would consider wagering on. I'm not a believer in prop bets, as I simply see marginal value in them, but I also realize the average gambler is going to be playing them. What I have done is go through the myriad of prop bets, and have come up with one, and only one, that show any type of historic value, one that has a track record of making money, as well as supported logic. Let me offer it to you, and only if you must.

This is now Superbowl 43. What I want to do is take this game in 11 game groups, and divide as closely as possible into 4 groups of 11 games. Obviously, the last 2 gorups will only show 10 games.

Superbowls 1-10:

This was the novelty era, where the AFC was considered the inferior league. During this period, when the approach to the game was different, and not as huge of an event as it has become, the first half of these games scored 152 points and the second half 161. Pretty much a wash, and the results say the same

FIRST HALF SCORE HIGHER 5 2ND HALF 5

SUPERBOWLS 11-20:

The game began to grow, and gain tremendous hype. Prop bets grew as well, and the AFC became the NFC's equal. First half scoring totalled 245 points, 2nd half scoring totalled 239 points, again it came down to a wash, just as the first 10. The first 20 year total was 397 first half to 400 second half. Nary a difference

FIRST HALF SCORE HIGHER 4 2ND HALF 6

SUPERBOWLS 21-31:

The game had grown to astronomical proportions, and the hype was matched by the meaningfulness of the game, with all the glory that was given to the winner. The first half points scored were 285 the 2ND was 304. Again no difference.

FIRST HALF SCORING HIGHER 5 @ND HALF 6

SUPERBOWLS 32-42:

The game has reached beyond rock-star hype. It is the single largest event on the planet, and it doesn't seem to matter who plays, everyone gets involved. First half scoring totalled 195 and 2nd half scoring 313. HUGE DIFFERENCE!!!

FIRST HALF SCORING HIGHER 1 2ND HALF SCORING 9

What we have seen is the magnitude of the game has now altered the approach. The first quarter has now been a feeling out process for the opposing coaches, afraid to make a mistake, and be under the microscope for the whole world to see. The last 9 Superbowls have seen the first half scoring produce 17 or less, while 10 of the last 11 have produced 20 or more. The fact is 7 of the last 10 have seen 30+ points scored in the 2nd half (look for potential 2nd half over play). The fact is 14 of the last 23 Superbowls have now seen the second half total reach 30 points or more!!! The first half has reached that total just 6 times!

That leaves a prop bet of:

Will the first half or second half have more scoring (OT counts toward 2nd half)?

First half +0.5 -120

2nd half+OT -0.5 -110

This is basically an even odds bet at -110 especially because in 42 Superbowls, the 1st and second half points were never even, so the +0.5 or -0.5 have had no impact on this wager in the history of the Superbowl.

The magnitude of this game, and its impact on coaches strategy early in the game, penalizes the ability for teams to score early, thus reducing the 30 minute first half scoring potential vs the second half.

FACT: 62% of all Superbowls have produced more points in the 2nd half.

As the game became what it is today, 23 of the last 34 have had more scoring in the 2nd half or 67.8%

FACT: There has not been more than 10 points scored in the first quarter in any Superbowl game in the last 10 years, with an average of just 7ppg.

THE PLAY:

2nd half higher scoring -0.5 -110

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