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Show Me The Money... Line!
by: Betting Doctor
Often when bettors bet underdogs, they look at the points they get in the bet as a type of insurance. In my opinion, rare is the instance that they are not paying more for this insurance than it is worth. Assuming accurate handicapping, they would make more money by passing on the insurance and laying the same percentage of bankroll on the odds offered by the money line.
In the NFL, favorites and underdogs go about 50/50 ATS over the longer term. This means that for any given 100 games, on the average, in 50 the favorite will win and cover. The other 50 games are made up of those in which the favorite wins but does not cover and those in which the underdog wins (and covers as well obviously).
Historically, the winner of the game covers about 83% of the time. If we subtract the 50 favorite covers from 83, we get 33 games where the underdog wins straight up. So if the underdog covers, only a third of the time (17/50) does it need “insurance” to do so.
There is a correlation between the pointspread and the likelihood of an underdog covering by winning, the higher the line the less likely an outright victory; but the money line can usually more than make up for it. So what does the money line have to be to make the insurance too expensive at any given pointspread? Below are the "break-even" money line odds for different pointspreads based on the NFL results of the past 10 years. If you've already decided you're betting the dog and you can get these odds or better, you'll make more money in the long run by betting that dog on the money line.
Less than +3: +110
+3: +125
+3 1/2 to 4: +140
+4 1/2 to 5 1/2: +175
+6 to 7: +220
+7 1/2 to 9 1/2: +280
+10 or more: +375
Your only other consideration in money line wagers is your "Mental Bankroll". If your money line dog loses SU but still covers ATS (e.g. St. Louis last Sunday) will you be able to take it in stride, or will you need to cannonball a six-pack to keep from yelling at your wife and kicking the dog (pun intended)? Personally, my Mental Bankroll would be more affected if my 9 point dog paying +370 (i.e. Cincinnati) won SU and I had only bet them with the points.
Reed Hogben M.D. (The Betting Doctor)
Betting Doctor Past Articles
The Seven Deadly Sins of Sports Betting
The investment world is becoming increasing familiar with the field of Behavioral Finance. This discipline unites key principles from Economics and Psychology ... read more
Show Me The Money... Line!
Often when bettors bet underdogs, they look at the points they get in the bet as a type of insurance. In my opinion, rare is the instance that they are ... read more
Glossary of Abbreviations
AD: Away DogAF: Away FavoriteAFD: Away Field DisadvantageAG: Away GameATS: Against the SpreadBC: Back CourtBF: In CFB, a Big Favorite ( >21 points)BL, ... read more
