The Secret of My Super Bowl Success

by: Ben Burns

Although my personal Super Bowl winning streak goes back a number of years before my picks became available online for the public, this article will focus on the 10 Super Bowl selections that I have released since my picks became available for the public.

I've begun by briefly discussing my basic playoff theory. That's followed by a recap of my 10 winning Super Bowl selections. Enjoy the article and good luck in the “Big Game!”

Why I love the NFL
One of the reasons that I love handicapping the NFL is that, unlike the three other major North American sports, every game is extremely significant. With the importance attached to each game, it’s usually much easier to determine which teams will be fully motivated. This is magnified in the 'sudden-death' style playoffs and ultimately in the Super Bowl when one knows that every team will be giving its maximum effort. After all, there's nothing worse than watching a baseball, basketball or hockey team 'go through the motions' knowing that it will play again tomorrow, regardless of how badly it loses today!

Playoff Theory
For a variety of reasons, my football picks are generally 'contrarian' in nature. This means that I'm often on the opposite side of the general betting public. During the playoffs, particularly on 'Super Sunday' the number of public bettors increases exponentially. In other words, there are a ton of recreational bettors wagering on the over-hyped team that they watched dominate on television the previous week!

As we know, the oddsmakers are attempting to create a number which will effectively balance their action. With the influx of 'squares' wagering during the playoffs, the oddsmakers are forced to inflate the 'public side' slightly higher than normal, or risk getting unbalanced action. Therefore, it stands to reason, that the 'less attractive' side often presents us with the best pointspread value.

Naturally, I don't just blindly bet against the public. In fact, there are occasions where I will join the masses. However, when my handicapping process determines that the unpopular side is the 'correct' side, then I don't hesitate in pulling the trigger. This approach has paid dividends. Although this postseason has NOT gone well, I've still managed to go 47-21-1 (against the spread) with my NFL playoff picks the past five years and 10-0 with my Super Bowl picks, since coming online in 1998.

Beneath, in recapping those 10 victories, I've attempted to share some insight into the reasoning behind each of the selections.

Documented Super Bowl Records

2007 Selection(s): Indianapolis/Chicago UNDER

I'll be the first to admit that I got a little "lucky" with this selection. Still, the bottom line was that it was another winner! The Bears had been great defensively all season. The Colts defense, which had been somewhat shaky during the regular season, had been excellent during the playoffs, holding two of three opponents to single-digits. As was the case the previous year, both teams had seen their game in the Conference Finals finish above the number. Chicago was coming off a high-scoring game vs. New Orleans while Indianapolis was coming off a high-scoring game vs. New England. As was also the case in 2006, those results had helped inflate the over/under number by a couple of points. That proved to be just enough as the final combined score of 46 managed to just sneak below the total of 47 or 48. The victory capped off a 10-1 run through the playoffs and one of my strongest NFL seasons ever.

 

2006 Selection(s): Pittsburgh/Seattle UNDER
Both teams had seen their games finish 'over' the number in the Conference Finals. As a result, I felt that the 'total', which opened at 47 and closed at 46, had become inflated and was too high. Both teams had shown a tendency to play low-scoring games when playing in a dome and 12 previous series meetings had averaged only 33 points. The final score, of 21-10, proved to be the lowest scoring Super Bowl in more than 30 years!  

2005 Selection(s): Philadelphia and UNDER
I believed that both teams were very evenly matched. I also felt that both defenses were excellent and expected to see a close, relatively low-scoring game. Despite a scoreless first quarter, the 24-21 final came precariously close to the 'total', which ranged from 46 to 47. The Eagles (+7) got on the board first and were tied entering the fourth quarter. However, they found themselves trailing by 10 points until McNabb capped a 79-yard drive with a 30-yard touchdown pass, with less than two minutes remaining, to earn the 'cover.' Cashing both the 'side' and 'total' was a sweet way to finish the season!

2004 Selection(s): New England/Carolina OVER

Both defenses were coming off exceptional games in the Conference Finals. The Panthers held the Eagles to only three points while the Patriots limited the high-powered Colts to only 14. Due to those results, the majority of the betting public expected a low-scoring game and played on the 'under.' I also had a great deal of respect for both defenses. In fact, I successfully played on the 'under' in BOTH the Patriots victory vs. the Panthers AND the Panthers victory vs. the Eagles. However, considering that every Super Bowl since 1976 had produced a minimum of 36 points, I felt that the 'total' of 38 was too low. The game started off very slowly and remained scoreless well into the second quarter. It appeared my string of Super Bowl victories was in jeopardy. However, the offenses suddenly exploded and the teams would finish with a whopping 61 points!

2003 Selection(s): Tampa Bay and OVER

This was clearly my favorite Super Bowl ever. I LOVED the Bucs and still can't believe they were actually getting points! For starters, I had played Tampa Bay, at 18-1 odds, to win the Super Bowl before the season started. Prior to the season, I also made this prediction publicly, for the entire world to see, at Vegas Experts, on my website, AND in another prominent national football magazine. I played on the Bucs (-6) when they smoked San Francisco 31-6 in the semis. I again successfully played on Tampa Bay (+4) in the Conference Finals and they pounded Philadelphia 27-10. After watching those games, I felt extremely confident that they would do the same to the over-rated Raiders. They did! Tampa dominated the game, finishing with an easy 48-21 victory and sailing 'over' the total (44) by 25 points. It was a wonderful way to end a superb season. What a party!

2002 Selection(s): New England/St. Louis UNDER

The Patriots had never won a Super Bowl title and weren't getting much respect against the mighty Rams. Like almost everyone else, I wasn't convinced that Brady and co. could pull off the improbable upset. However, I had seen the Patriots' defense allow an average of only 12 points in their previous three playoff games and I felt that they had a solid chance at slowing down 'the greatest show on turf.' I also felt that the 'total' of 53 was too high and that the value lay with the 'under.' The Pats would give up a lot of yards (427) but their defense forced three turnovers and the final score of 20-17 stayed well underneath the inflated number!

2001 Selection(s): Baltimore/New York Giants: PASS

I respected the Giants and had successfully played on them in the NFC Finals when they massacred Minnesota, as 2 1/2 point underdogs, by a 41-0 score. However, I also respected the Ravens and had played on them when they dispatched Denver 21-3. I didn't feel strongly about going against either team, and didn't want to force a play, so just decided to 'pass' and enjoy the game from a fan's perspective.

2000 Selection(s): St. Louis/Tennessee UNDER

The public was big on the 'over' but I felt that the total of 48 or 49 was too high. The Rams took a 9-0 lead into halftime until both offenses woke up for a wild 30-point second half. On paper, the final score of 23-16 appears to have fallen well below the number. As anyone who watched the game will remember, it could have been a much different result if Kevin Dyson didn't get stopped at the 1-yard line though!

1999 Selection(s): DENVER

I had a great deal of respect for both teams as I had successfully played on the Falcons (+10) in their 30-27 upset of the Vikings in the NFC Finals and had also successfully played on the Broncos (-8.5) in their 23-10 victory over the Jets in the AFC Finals. I felt that the Broncos (-7.5) were the superior team though and decided to lay the 'chalk.' John Elway, in his last game, passed for 336 yards and ran for a touchdown to earn most valuable player honors as the Broncos scored a relatively easy 34-19 win and 'cover' while becoming the first AFC team to win consecutive Super Bowls since the Steelers did so 20 years earlier!

It's a DOCUMENTED FACT! Since making his picks available for the public, Ben Burns is an INCREDIBLE 10-0 WITH HIS SUPER BOWL PICKS. Ben's EPIC RUN has consisted of a mix of sides and totals, "overs," "unders," "favorites" and "dogs." The ALLTIME NFL CHAMPION (field of 150 at BigGuy) puts his PERFECT RECORD on the line with the CORRECT SIDE. Be there!

Ben Burns Past Articles

A Closer Look at the Eastern Conference Standings
When attempting to determine motivational levels, in addition to analyzing various "situational" factors, one needs to know each team's position ... read more

The Secret of My Super Bowl Success
Although my personal Super Bowl winning streak goes back a number of years before my picks became available online for the public, this article will focus ... read more

2007 AFC West Preview
The Chargers won the West last year and finished with the best regular season record in the NFL. So, what did they do? Fired their coach of course! While ... read more

2007 AFC East Preview
New England has been the "Beast of the East" for several years now and it appears that this season will be no exception. Not only are the Patriots ... read more

2007 AFC North Preview
The AFC North is arguably the most competitive division in the NFL. Every other division in the league has either one or two teams which are favored to ... read more

All Ben Burns Past Articles

Ben Burns Recent Past Picks

NFL Football

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys Thursday August 28, 2008 8:00 pm
I'm playing on Dallas and Minnesota to finish UNDER the number. Looking back to last preseason and we find that Week 4 was extremely low-scoring. In fact, it was the lowest-scoring week of any of the past three preseasons. The 16 games averaged just 30 combined points and 11 of them ... read more

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College Football

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Miami Ohio Red Hawks Thursday August 28, 2008 7:30 pm
I'm laying the points with MIAMI OHIO. There are several reasons why a MAC team, one which is coming off back to back losing seasons, is laying points vs. an SEC team. For starters, the game is being played at Miami. Additionally, while the Red Hawks should be much improved from ... read more

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College Football

UTEP Miners @ Buffalo Bulls Thursday August 28, 2008 7:00 pm
I'm playing on the OVER in the Buffalo/Utep game. The line opened at 64 but is currently in the high 50s. I believe that gives us excellent value for what I expect to be a high-scoring contest. The Miners originally scheduled this game as a tuneup for next week's game against Texas. ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Redskins Thursday August 28, 2008 7:00 pm
I'm laying the points with WASHINGTON. Last week, I successfully played against the Redskins in their loss at Carolina. One of the primary reasons for my play is that I felt that the Panthers were going to be the more motivated team. That was in large part due to the fact that the ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Thursday August 28, 2008 1:05 pm
I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. The Yankees entered this series with an outside shot at rallying to make the playoffs. The last two days have really damaged their postseason chances though. If they want to retain even a small hope of doing the improbable, this afternoon's game ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday August 27, 2008 8:15 pm
I'm playing on Milwaukee and St Louis to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total. That was a tough loss for 'under' bettors though, as the score was 5-0 entering the ninth inning. The Cardinals still never scored a run but the Brewers erupted for ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals Wednesday August 27, 2008 8:10 pm
I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. After they've taken the first two games of this series, the majority of the betting public will likely ride the Rangers again today. After all, the Royals have been the least popular AL team to bet on in both recent weeks and recent years. Early reports ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Tuesday August 26, 2008 7:05 pm
I'm laying the price with the NEW YORK YANKEES. This matchup was originally supposed to be between Andy Pettite and Josh Beckett. However, Beckett will miss the series, the last of the year between these teams here at Yankee Stadium, due to continued numbness and tingling in his ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday August 26, 2008 7:05 pm
I'm playing on the Cubs and Pirates to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener resulted in a high-scoring contest but I expect to see a well-pitched affair this evening. Chicago starter Carlos Zambrano had suffered rare back to back rough starts. However, he's still an ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Monday August 25, 2008 10:05 pm
I'm playing on San Diego and Arizona to finish UNDER the number. I don't normally go 'under' when a total is only 6.5. However, this isn't a 'normal' pitching matchup and it's not at a 'normal' park. Indeed, it's Haren vs. Peavy at pitcher-friendly Petco Park! It's true that these ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

All Ben Burns Past Picks

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