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Season Home Run Props Predictions
by: Doc's Sports
There is a rare break in the constant stream of action that makes up the baseball season, so it is a natural time to take a step back and evaluate where we are at. One thing that we can do now is consider who is likely to hit the most home runs on the season, and then to see if we can make some money from that belief. Bodog has odds listed for a dizzying number of players who have a shot at being the slugging king this year.
Before we look at this year, let's take a look at what has happened in the recent past. Last year Alex Rodriguez went into the break with a one home run lead over Prince Fielder. By the end of the year, Rodriguez had opened the gap to four homers over Fielder. The top five sluggers at the end of the year were all in the top eight at the all-star break. The 2006 slugging champ, Ryan Howard, was sitting three home runs off the pace at the break. The top four at year's end were all within four home runs of the lead at the break. As hard as it is to believe given how he is playing now, Andruw Jones was the home run king in 2005, and at the break. Yet again, the top five at year's end were in close contact at the half. Adrian Beltre, the 2004 champ, did the closest thing to a comeback from a halfway deficit, but even that wasn't that dramatic - he was tied for seventh at the half in a year where home run productivity was down across the board. The lesson is clear here - the home run king at the end of this season has likely already stated his intention to be there by his play so far.
Before we even start to look at individual players, that information can allow us to make our handicapping easier by eliminating a bunch of guys who aren't worth considering. Bodog lists odds for 29 individual players and a field choice that could be the eventual home run champ. Though anything is possible, I feel comfortable eliminating everyone that is outside of the top 15 right now (Howard leads with 28, and a player needs at least 21 to be in the top 15). That leaves us with an impressive group with a few surprises - Howard, Dunn, Utley, Burrell, Sizemore, Ramirez, Uggla, Braun, Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Quentin, Dye, Lee, Hamilton and Ludwick. All of those players have individual prices assigned, so I will start by ruling out the field as a viable option. As an aside, I can't help but notice that 11 of the 15 players listed play in the National League. That's very interesting, but a topic for another article.
The favorite, at 3/2, is Ryan Howard. He currently has a two home run lead. Though he isn't at a particularly attractive price he strikes me as a logical choice here for several reasons. He has won the home run crown before, so the pressure won't get to him down the stretch. He has two teammates - Chase Utley and Pat Burrell - who are also hitting with a ton of power, so pitchers can't easily avoid Howard. He's a career .279 hitter that is only hitting .234 so far this year, so it seems reasonable to believe that he will improve at the plate in the second half. It wouldn't be too much of an exaggeration to say that this race is Howard's to lose.
After his tour de force performance in the Home Run Derby on Monday, Josh Hamilton, at 12/1, will get plenty of public attention in this bet. As appealing as he is as a player and a story, that would be a bad bet. Hamilton is seven home runs behind Howard, he plays in a league that clearly isn't as prone to the deep ball this year, and he hasn't ever played a full major league season so we have no way of knowing how he will hold up. Stay away.
If you like the Phillies but don't like 3/2 then you might want to look at Howard's teammates. Utley is third with 25 homers, and he is at 9/2 - probably a fair price compared to Howard. Burrell, on the other hand, could provide a bit of value for risk-takers. He is two more home runs behind Utley, but his odds are way up at 15/1. That's a bargain compared to some guys well below it. Alex Rodriguez, for example, is sitting in 17th with 19 home runs, yet he is at 12/1.
Compared to Utley, Adam Dunn is worth a look. The Reds' slugger has 26 homers, yet his price is exactly twice as attractive as Utley's - 9/1 versus 9/2. Like Howard, Dunn is hitting below his career average, so he could have an even stringer second half. His biggest problem as I see it is that the Reds are in a rebuilding mode, so it is more than possible that Dunn will be in a new uniform before the end of the year. That could distract his momentum, especially if he switches leagues. Still, his odds are so much higher than the two guys on either side of him in the race that he is definitely interesting.
by T.O. Whenham - 07/16/2008
Doc's Sports Past Articles
This Week in Betting, A to Z
A - Appalachian State. A former Michigan man took it upon himself to avenge the crushing embarrassment dished out to the Wolverines by App State last ... read more
4th Down and Inches
Once again it’s that time of year, as this is the kickoff issue for our annual Fourth Down and Inches. What was most gratifying about the past weekend ... read more
This Week in Betting, A to Z
A - Arizona Cardinals. The Cards beat the Raiders, 24-0, this week, but it wasn't nearly as promising as it might sound. Matt Leinart is supposed to be ... read more
NFL Player Salaries for 2008
Having a legitimate salary cap in the NFL makes competency, not money, the most important asset a GM can have. The average salary of the eight Pro Bowl ... read more
Preseason NFL Power Rankings
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face."- Mike TysonI know what you mean Mike. I do. See, in the world of the Betting in the ... read more
All Doc's Sports Past Articles
Doc's Sports Recent Past Picks
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers Friday September 5, 2008 8:05 pm
4 Unit Play. #971 Take Boston over Texas (8:05 pm MLB.tv) Finally we would like to welcome Josh Beckett back into the line-up for the Red Sox. Beckett has been out with his usually arm problems but is finally back and when he pitches the Sox always play well behind him. He will ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
College Football
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Vanderbilt Commodores Thursday September 4, 2008 8:30 pm
3 Unit Play. #1 Take South Carolina Gamecocks over Vanderbilt Commodores (Thursday 8:30 pm ESPN) This is a big revenge game for Coach Steve Spurrier, as his squad was humiliated last year in Columbia, 17-6. A large nucleus of that 2007 Commodore team has graduated and are no ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
MLB Baseball
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers Wednesday September 3, 2008 7:05 pm
3 Unit Play. #975 Take Los Angeles over Detroit (7:05 pm MLB.tv) The Halos just continue to win games and are coming off an impressive victory on Tuesday giving them seven wins in their last 10 games. They look to increase their top mark in the American League tonight when game ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians Tuesday September 2, 2008 7:05 pm
3 Unit Play. #917 Take Chicago over Cleveland (7:05 pm MLB.tv) The White Sox were shutdown yesterday by Cliff Lee but should find it much easier to score runs tonight against Fausto Carmona. John Danks will be his counterpart and he has had good success against Cleveland in his ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
MLB Baseball
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Monday September 1, 2008 8:10 pm
3 Unit Play. #964 Take Los Angeles over San Diego (8:10 pm MLB.tv) The Dodgers are coming off two must have victories against the Snakes in Arizona to keep their slim chances of a playoff birth alive. They now return home and expect them to dominate the Fathers and their starting ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
College Football
Fresno State Bulldogs @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Monday September 1, 2008 4:00 pm
3 Unit Play. #109 Take Fresno State Bulldogs over Rutgers (Monday 4:00 pm ESPN) How can anyone not like Coach Pat Hill’s attitude of playing anybody, anywhere, and at anytime. His non-conference schedule is loaded again with teams like Wisconsin, UCLA, and Rutgers. This ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
MLB Baseball
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday August 31, 2008 8:05 pm
3 Unit Play. #914 Take Arizona over Los Angeles (8:05 pm ESPN) The Dodgers pounded Dan Haren last night to the shock of this writer but I cannot see history repeating itself against the likely Cy Young winner on Sunday. Los Angeles has been inconsistent to say the least in 2008 and ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
College Football
Colorado Buffaloes @ Colorado State Rams Sunday August 31, 2008 7:30 pm
3-Unit Play. #209 Colorado over Colorado State (7:30 p.m., Sunday, Aug. 31)We’re siding with the road chalk in this rivalry game out west. Dan Hawkins is in his third year at CU and his son, Cody, leads an offense that should be much stronger with outstanding freshman running ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
College Football
Utah State Aggies @ UNLV Rebels Saturday August 30, 2008 10:00 pm
Free Pick from Doc’s Sports. #102 Take UNLV over Utah State (Saturday 10:00 pm) The Rebels should be a much improved team in 2008 and will get off to a good start by knocking off the Aggies, a team that beat last year in Logan, 23-16. The Rebels return all of their offensive ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
MLB Baseball
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday August 30, 2008 8:10 pm
5 Unit Play. #966 Take Arizona over Los Angeles (8:10 pm MLB.tv) The Dodgers are done! Despite having a major edge in pitching last night, they got blown out by Arizona, a team they could never pass in the standing. They now have lost eight start games and will have to face the heart ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports