Ryan's Alamo Bowl Preview

by: John Ryan Sports

Alamo Bowl Preview

Monday December 29, 2008
8:00 EST start
Missouri versus Northwestern

This is a game where two teams have arrived here by almost unthinkable paths. Northwestern started the season with only minimal hopes of becoming bowl eligible. After a strong 2007 season, Missouri started the season with plans for a National Championship. Both paths do bring them together for this bowl game.

Missouri at one point was ranked as high as 3 and are now ranked 21st. Northwestern is currently ranked 23rd and that is a huge accomplishment for this team. Northwestern’s success has been attributed to the defensive unit led by DE Corey Wootton. This may prove to be the winning matchup should Northwestern pull off the upset. Daniel threw just 1 interceptions in their 5-0 start, but then threw 14 interceptions over the remainder of the season for a conference leading 15. Northwestern certainly has the talent and athleticism to contain Daniels and a strong offensive unit.

On a positive note for Missouri they can be the first Missouri team in school history to post back to back 10 game winning seasons. That may be the necessary ingredient to overcome what has been a very disappointing second half to their season. Also, Missouri has played a more difficult schedule and that experience may be a significant factor as well.

Northwestern’s defense has had some very strong games. They contained their last 3 opponents (Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State) to 46% passing and just 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Another impressive factor is that their defense has forced opponents to gain 20.9 yards per point scored. Yards per point scored is a significant factor and component variable within my Ai Simulator. By way of comparison, Missouri’ defensive unit has allowed 1 point scored for every 12.4 yards gained and have allowed an average of 37.9 PPG in road games.

The Missouri offense is a very good one indeed and this is seen at various statistical levels. They averaged 43.2 PPG, hitting 72% of their passes for a strong 8.4 yards per pass attempt. They also scored 1 point for every 11.5 yards gained, which is a remarkable achievement. They were consistent on the road as well scoring 1 point for every 11.4 yards gained hitting 70% of their passes. In having a prolific offense they have not controlled the clock and their time of possession stats are poor. They had the ball for an average of just 26:11 this season and this forced the defense to be on the field far too long. This simple fact may well be a significant factor in determining the winner of this game as well.

Let’s take a look at a few technical angles and systems that support each team. If you like Northwestern than you will enjoy knowing that Missouri is just 1-4 against the money line (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 1-4 against the money line (-19.0 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season. Missouri is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Northwestern is just  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. 

With all of this potentially conflicting information make certain you join me for my 10* Titan Total on this game that is reinforced by extensive research showing you why this total is a near mortal lock to win. My 10* graded plays produced by my Ai Simulator and then reinforced and confirmed by a supporting cast of systems and angles have gone 8-2 ATS this season so join me for what I truly believe will be a very easy winner ATS. 

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