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Matt Fargo Sports

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Purdue Boilermakers Connecticut Huskies Preview

by: Matt Fargo Sports

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Connecticut Huskies Thursday, March 26, 2009 7:07 PM ET

The Betting Numbers

This game opened at -6.5 and is staying pretty steady with the line moving to -7 in some places. The total has also remained stable, opening at 134.5 and holding on that number.

Series History

This will be the fifth meeting between Purdue and Connecticut, but the first since 1992. The Boilermakers have won all previous four meetings.

The Teams

Connecticut was the preseason favorite to win the Big East Conference and it nearly met expectations, finishing a game behind Louisville. Pundits are once again saying that the Huskies could be the team to beat based on two dominant performances to open the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies steamrolled UT-Chattanooga in the first round and followed that up with another blowout against Texas A&M in the second round. The offense has been unstoppable, scoring 103 and 92 points while the defense allowed the two opponents to shoot a combined 33.3 percent from the floor (43-129).

Connecticut is now 15-2 away from home on the season and of those 15 wins, seven victories came against teams that are in the 64-team field as well as four others against teams that played in other postseason tournaments. The Huskies are ranked third in shooting defense in the nation, allowing 37.4 percent from the floor and they are now first in the country in rebounding margin at +11, passing Michigan St. for the top spot. If there is a liability, it comes from the free throw line where Connecticut is hitting just 67.6 percent on the season including a disturbing 60 percent over the last five games.

When Purdue is healthy, it is one of the tougher teams in the country and it cannot be overlooked to pull off a huge upset. The Boilermakers won their first two games in tight fashion, defeating Northern Iowa, although that game was not as close as the final score indicates and then taking out Washington after nearly blowing a big lead. Purdue has now won five straight games, all on a neutral floor to improve to 11-6 away from home. Momentum is big this time of year and Purdue definitely has that going.

When Purdue clicks on offense, it is tough to beat because the defense comes to play in every game. That has been the case in the first two games of the tournament as the Boilermakers have held their two opponents to 39.7 percent shooting (48-121). The offense has yet to find its rhythm as Purdue is shooting only 40 percent (46-115) through the first two games and it certainly won’t be any easier here. Robbie Hummel has scored only 16 total points so his offense needs to turn around. He has been held to single-digits in seven of his 12 games since returning from injury.

Against the Numbers

The Huskies, being a high profile team are often overvalued and it showed at times with their numbers. Connecticut is 15-14 against the number including an 11-13 ATS mark as a favorite. They have had more success on the road than at home, going 17-6 ATS in road and neutral court games. Fading the Huskies down the stretch would have paid huge dividends as they went a money-burning 1-6 ATS in their final seven games prior to the start of the Big Dance although they have easily covered the two big numbers since. The Huskies are 5-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite this season

Purdue has been a disappointment this season for its backers as it is 16-17 against the number. After a four-game ATS winning streak to end January, the Boilermakers are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games despite going 3-2 ATS since postseason play started. Purdue has been an underdog only three times this season, going 1-2 against the number with the lone ATS victory being against Washington last time out. It has covered five of its last six tournament games as an underdog of fewer than seven points.

Intangibles

The Huskies are 27-4 in first and second round NCAA Tournament games under head coach Jim Calhoun… The Huskies' 82-point combined margin of victory was the most in the opening rounds since Duke dispatched its first two opponents by the same total in 1999…Travel could be on Purdue’s side as it stayed out west after playing in Portland, being in Arizona since Sunday and has been working out on the Arizona St. campus… Purdue played four games against teams seeded No. 2 or better in the NCAA Tournament and went 1-3 in those games (defeating Michigan St. at home).


Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles

NCAA Preview: New Mexico St. Aggies
2011 College Football Previews New Mexico St. Aggies Offensive Starters Returning…7 Defensive Starters Returning…7 Looking Back… ... read more

College Basketball Top 25 Matchups
Matt will be taking a look at the weekend top 25 matchups in college hoops every Saturday. This week has four games featuring a matchup of teams from ... read more

2009 SEC (East) Preview
The SEC has long been considered the toughest conference in football and rightfully so. It has produced the last three National Champions, Florida twice ... read more

2009 Big XII (North) Conference Preview
As strong as the Big XII South is, the North is just the opposite. There are good teams within the division no doubt but it is unlikely that any team ... read more

2009 Big Ten Conference Preview
Many say that the Big Ten was in a down year in 2008 considering only five teams finished the season ranked in the top 50 in the national power ratings. ... read more

All Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles


Matt Fargo Sports Past Picks

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats Thursday February 9, 2012 9:00 pm
Northwestern is coming off a big road win on Sunday at rival Illinois and now it is being asked to lay a big number against a team that possesses a better conference record. The Wildcats are now 4-6 in the Big Ten following two straight wins but getting that third straight victory ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes Thursday February 9, 2012 9:00 pm
It has been a rough season for Virginia Tech but things have been so close to being a whole lot better. The Hokies are only 2-6 in the ACC but of those six losses, four have come by four points or fewer with the other two coming at the hands of North Carolina and Duke. Virginia Tech ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NBA Basketball

Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Thursday February 9, 2012 8:05 pm
After the Lakers brought home the NBA title back in 2009-10, the Celtics went to Los Angeles in the first meeting last season and defeated the Lakers by 13 points. The Lakers then returned the favor in Boston by way of a six-point victory so last season the road team won both of ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Arkansas Little Rock Trojans @ UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Thursday February 9, 2012 8:00 pm
This is a big game in the Sun Belt Conference but the line is not telling us that. Arkansas-Little Rock leads the SBC West Division by a half-game over tonight's counterpart and that being the case, this line is off a few points in my opinion. The Trojans are riding a three-game ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NHL Hockey

Winnipeg Jets @ Washington Capitals Thursday February 9, 2012 7:05 pm
Washington had a big win on Tuesday over Florida and the Southeast Division did another flip-flop. With the victory, the Capitals went from ninth place to third place in the in the Eastern Conference as they now have a one point lead over the Panthers. That makes this a pivotal game ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Thursday February 9, 2012 7:00 pm
Here we have a very good team, NC State, trying to get some road revenge on a very bad team, Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack lost at home last month by 11 points and it really was an inexcusable loss as they were riding a six-game winning streak and had just won their ACC opener over ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Wednesday February 8, 2012 8:30 pm
Nebraska used to own one of the better home court advantages when it was part of the Big XII Conference but the home floor has not been a very big edge this season. The Huskers were decent during the non-conference portion of their schedule but even some of those wins were suspect, ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NBA Basketball

Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:35 pm
The Hawks are in a funk right now. After winning five of six games to close out January, they have lost their last three games, all of which have come at home and all were very winnable games. Losing to Memphis and Philadelphia are not horrible losses but the most recent defeat against ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
NBA Basketball

Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:05 pm
Cleveland has played a very tough schedule since the end of January as it has faced Boston twice, Orlando, Dallas and Miami over its last five games and coming out of those at 2-3 isn't that bad. The Cavaliers are coming off a loss at Miami last night as the game was relatively close ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Matt Fargo Sports
College Basketball

Kansas Jayhawks @ Baylor Bears Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:00 pm
Kansas is coming off a tough loss on Saturday at Missouri and things will not get any easier here as it travels to Waco with first place in the Big XII on the line. The Jayhawks and Bears both trail Missouri by a half-game but this game is arguably bigger for Baylor. A loss here ... read more