WUNDERDOGS MONDAY MLB MONEYLINE PLAY OF THE DAY! (Mon)
Wunderdogs MLB MONEYLINE plays are smoking hot, having picked up over $1,400 for his $100 per unit players during the past week. The Dog is all over a MLB MONEYLINE game today - enough to give it the Highest Rating of the day! Get it now!
WUNDERDOGS MONDAY NBA PLAYOFF PUNISHER! (Mon)
Wunderdog has some master systems that have been systematically taking down the books, one game at a time one winner at a time. Over the past month, the Dogs NBA playoff picks are hitting 60% at 63-37, good for +47 units. Be sure to get on board with todays NBA PLAYOFF PUNISHER!
WUNDERDOG'S MONDAY NHL BOOKIE BURNER! (Mon)
The Dog is back on the ice today ready to BURN THE BOOKS. This hot play is ready to melt the ice and beat the books. Wunderdog Sports is up +110 units with his NHL picks during the p past seven months at 237-189.
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Preseason NFL Picks: How to bet the preseason
by: Wunderdog Sports
Can money be made on NFL preseason picks? Absolutely. I have won six of eight seasons, hitting 59%, with $100 players making $5,559 in profit - a 56% growth in bankroll.
Can handicappers approach the preseason the same way they do in the regular season? Of course not. Should you bet the NFL preseason? That's up to you.
Why is the preseason different? For one, power ratings don't mean a thing. Past season performance doesn't correlate much to preseason performance either. And, there are few if any past games to look at that provide any true predictive value.
That being said, there are some indicators of ATS (against the spread) results in the preseason. In fact, the same issues that make these games more difficult to handicap make them more difficult for lines-makers to peg. Remember, it doesn’t take much of an edge - if we can beat 52.4% with our picks, we bank!
In 2002, I went 4-1-1 ATS in the preseason. In 2003, I went 9-6 ATS, in 2004, I went 11-9-1 ATS and in 2005 I was an incredible 20-8 in the "games that don't matter." I took a step back in 2006 going 13-14 but bounced back in a huge way in 2007, going 12-6 for +19.3 units. In 2008, I won again, going 17-12 for +8.0 units. I had only my second losing preseason ever in 2009, giving back a little. Overall, I've hit 59% (105-74) for +51.9 units ($5,559 for $100 players) in the lifetime of my preseason NFL picks.
I make my preseason picks by analyzing the following:
Coaches/Philosophy
Do they take the preseason seriously or use it for its intended purpose (to test out players and new schemes)? For example, take a look at the recently retired Bill Parcells. His focus on making every play count, whether in a real game or practice, and his disciplined approach has resulted in his team covering the spread in roughly two thirds of the preseason games he has coached. The retired Marv Levy of Buffalo was just the opposite and was a great "go-against" preseason coach. I track every coach's record and look for signals as to how they approach these games. Keep an eye on Jack Del Rio. In five seasons with Jacksonville, he has gone 15-5 with three 3-1 campaigns, a 4-0 year, and no losing years, indicating he takes the preseason seriously. On the flip side, Andy Reid, has only won 36% of his preseason games in Philly.
Be careful, however, about blindly betting "good" coach vs. "poor" coach. Over the past five years, "good" coaches (50%+ preseason ATS record) were 51% ATS while "poor" coaches (<50% preseason ATS) were 44% ATS. There is a difference, but it isn't huge. Further analysis is required to uncover more predictive trends. For example, put that "poor" coach in a favorite position and he'll cover only about a third of the time. Find another trend or two to combine with that and we have a very good bet.
Finally, what about coaching motivation? For many years, "new" NFL coaches did very well. The theory was that they have more to prove and more to play for than experienced vets who are secure in their jobs. In 2002, the four "new" head coaches went 11-5 (69%) ATS. In the 2003 preseason, the five head coaches who were new to their team went 12-8 (60%) against-the-spread. But in 2004, new head coaches went only 13-15 ATS. In 2005, they bounced back, going 8-3 ATS. But then from 2006 to 2009, new coaches compiled a very lackluster 51-56 ATS mark. I continue to watch this trend every year. I look for new head coaches in certain situations where they have an advantage vs. playing them blindly.
Team Depth
Backups play more than starters and some teams' backups are better than other teams' starters. Look for situations in which starters will be playing against backups. Teams with veteran starters who are not fighting for their job will tend to play these starters very little in the preseason. Look for teams with a couple of good players fighting for the same job. These players will get extra playing time as coaches try to determine the starter. Also look for teams with great backups, especially at quarterback. Some teams’ second or third-string quarterbacks could start for other teams. When they get to play against their opponent’s second or third-stringers, they’ll rack up the yards – and the points.
Game Plan
Coaches often announce their intentions for upcoming games. Sometimes they are looking to give a specific player a lot of playing time and other times they are just looking to get out of there as quickly as possible without any injuries. Sometimes after several weak preseason performances, coaches challenge their teams to show something before the regular season starts and meaningless game becomes meaningful.
Preseason Historical Systems and Trends
It is true that some simple older popular trends (bet on a team in its second preseason game if its opponent is playing its first) are no longer predictive (this one is <50% over the past six years). However, there remain very good predictive trends/systems for the preseason. For example, dogs of over 7 points do very well, especially when facing a team off a win. I track and apply over 150 preseason situations and trends when making my picks.
Keep these items in mind when handicapping the NFL preseason. I utilize a system that takes all of these variables into account on my preseason picks.
Wunderdog Sports Past Articles
MLB April: Winning is Easy
Winning in the early part of the MLB season is easy.Actually, it’s easy but it’s also very hard.Why is it easy? It’s easy because there’s ... read more
MLB Picks Previews 2012 – AL East
MLB Picks Previews 2012 – AL EastPredicted Order of Finish 1. New York Yankees 2. Tampa Bay Rays 3. Boston Red Sox 4. Toronto Blue Jays 5. Baltimore ... read more
Packers Go Undefeated A Good Bet?
This is an interesting bet that I believe provides value. Right now you can take the “No” on this proposition for -170 (sportsbook.eu, betus) ... read more
Will the Packers go undefeated this season?
This is an interesting bet that I believe provides value. Right now you can take the “No” on this proposition for -170 (sportsbook.eu, betus) ... read more
Value on the Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are up 2-0 in their series vs. the Lakers. To turn this around and win this series, LA must win 4 of 5 games with only two home games. ... read more
All Wunderdog Sports Past Articles
Wunderdog Sports Past Picks
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers Sunday May 20, 2012 10:30 pm
The LA Clippers find themselves down in their series to San Antonio three games to none. They came out yesterday like gang-busters, building a 24 point lead. It looked as if they were paving their way into getting back in this series, then the wheels fell off and San Antonio out-scored ... read more
MLB Baseball
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday May 20, 2012 8:05 pm
Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is huge, a great pitcher's park. St. Louis got a dose of that yesterday in a 6-0 loss to LA. At least the Cardinals are armed for this one with Kyle Lohse (5-1, 2.70 ERA), who has had a fine season. It's imperative in a big park like this that you don't ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
A pair of inept offenses meet in the Bay area. Oakland is on a 6-1-1 run under the total with an offense ranked 28th in runs scored, 29th in slugging and on-base percentage, plus a miserable team batting average of .215. The UNDER is 15-6-1 in the Athletics last 22 interleague ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
The Indiana Pacers humiliated the Miami Heat in game three at home by 19 points, to take a 2-1 series lead going into game four at home. It was utter humiliation for Dwayne Wade who shot 2-13 and saw the Heat at -25 when he was on the floor. It is the first time since November of ... read more
MLB Baseball
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
You have to pay attention to teams that get the money as a dog and the Royals are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog. Kansas City has turned things around, winning five of eight games, including a win over these Diamondbacks yesterday, 7-3. They face an Arizona team ... read more
MLB Baseball
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Sunday May 20, 2012 2:05 pm
Is mighty Texas vulnerable anywhere? Sure. The Rangers are 2-5 in their last seven interleague road games and 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games against a right-handed starter. They're also vulnerable, as every team is, when they get lousy starting pitching and that's the case ... read more
MLB Baseball
Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays Sunday May 20, 2012 1:40 pm
A pair of powerhouse teams meet in interleague play, but Atlanta has a key weakness: The Braves are 7-16 in their last 23 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. They don't face any old southpaw in this one, but hard throwing David Price (6-2, 3.10 ERA), an ace with a 45-10 ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
Look for a low scoring game. The UNDER is 25-9 in the Marlins last 34 road games, 5-0 UNDER the total in their last five road games against a right-handed starter and 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Lowe attributes his turnaround this season ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
That hot streak the Marlins were on out West is over. This team has come back to earth at 4-4 the last eight games, including losses of 7-0 and 2-0 in two of the last three nights. This is the end of a 5-game road trip and the Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games vs. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees Sunday May 20, 2012 1:05 pm
A good price on the NY Yankees at home with their ace. The Bronx Bombers play their best baseball at home with a powerful offense that is seventh in runs scored, and 4th in on-base percentage and slugging. Ace C.C. Sabathia (5-1) takes the mound with the team 6-1 his last 7 starts. ... read more
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