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POST-SCRIPT TO NFL WEEK 6

by: Mr East

I sometimes get mail from clients regarding how I can make a pick on a certain team, and they include lots of statistical reasons why it is a bad choice. It is often the very reason many stumble when it comes to picking winners in the NFL. I guess this week serves as a case in point. The Cleveland Browns, fresh in the memory banks serves as 1 indicator. The Browns, who averaged just 210 yards a game through 4 games, are now facing a team that was ranked #1 defensively in the NFL. How could the Browns stay in the game? They scored a total of 4 TD's in 4 games, but last night scored 4 against the best defense in the NFL. They had gained 842 yards on offense in 4 games, last night they gained more than half that production in one game vs the best defense in the NFL. How about the Rams? Can't even come close to winning a game, go to Washington vs a team that beat Philadelphia, and Dallas, should get hammered right? They get just 8 FD's the entire game, 200 yards of total offense, out-gained almost 2 to 1 but not only cover, they win the game. How about Detroit? They are down a minimum of 21-3 in each of their 1st 4 games, but somehow manage to almost win on the road at Minnesota. How about Indianapolis, the offense can't do a thing for 4 weeks, play against a very tough defense, and score 31, and Manning has his way with the Raven secondary, 19 for 28 271 and 3 TD's. The whole point behind a look back at last week in the NFL, is if you haven't figured out the NFL isn't about statistics, then you will continue to lose your bankroll! All of those games were complete statistical mismatches, yet none of the "statistically" superior teams covered a pointspread, and most of them lost! The typical player will do the following. Find a statistically strong team, vs a statistically weak team, especially a high scoring one, and play it, because it feels comfortable! It feels comfortable until your account is being bled dry! I've written articles before about what does winning feel like? Winning feels like losing! Yes, you read that right, winning feels like losing. If you have a 55% winning expectation, and average 4 plays a day, you will experience losing over 60% of the time. That is a statistical fact! So you better have thick skin, or you will start chasing, and before you know it, your in deep trouble. Slow and steady wins the race. Parlays, and teasers build bigger and more plush Casino's. If you win 55-60%, which is in the Hall of Fame range, one parlay, one teaser, destroys your entire advantage, and you will be a 55-60% handicapper that loses money! So how does a professional handicapper approach a weekly card?

I can't speak for all, many approach this differntly. The first thing I do, is make a betting line for next week's games, before the current week of games even kick-off! That will give you the true line for that game, not one that is influenced by 1 week's worth of results. You have to practice to get good at making accurate lines, and I have become quite efficient at doing so. You will immediately see the 1 week influence on next week's games, a starting point to find value.

Next, look for poor teams in good situations, there is more value on teams that noone wants, because the good teams are taxed heavily, and you'll pay a premium, with no value to back them. A good rule of thumb is the following. "The team in need, is the team indeed."

Find these valued teams that make you feel uncomfortable to back! I've done this a longtime, and the more uncomfortable I feel backing a team, the better the results usually are. Most gamblers like the comfortable feeling of backing a powerhouse offense, a strong team, because you feel good about your choice, but feel bad, lementing, they didn't show up, the game was fixed, etc.

I will reveal a system that illustrates this quite nicely. The typical bettor will look at last week's games and see that Team X lost by 31 points the week before, and immediately cross them off their list, and may in fact bet against them, because it feels good playing against them. WRONG MOVE!!! What do you think this team feels like? What do you think the practices are like for the upcoming game? These are professional athletes, that take pride in what they do, and can't wait to get that bad taste out of their mouth. They have to do interviews with a relentless media, that reminds them how pitiful they played, how bad they got beat! I know the feeling, I have been there, and been there on a professional level!

So let's take a look at what happens to the team that lost by the most points the week before since the 2003-04 season. This system is going to put you on some very bad teams. Teams that make you get a knot in your stomach, but it isn't about the feeling, it is about the money won, or lost. Here are the rules:

PLAY ON THE NFL TEAM THAT LOST BY THE MOST POINTS IN THEIR LAST GAME, IN THEIR NEXT GAME!

Not backfitted, one sole condition! Not complicated, very easy, takes 15 seconds to find your play!

RULES: If they have a bye the next week, you still play them in their next game. If multiple teams tie for losing by the most points, you play every team that lost by the most points.

Ok now the good news!!! If you played these teams since 2003-04 (through 2007 results)

YOUR RECORD IN THE NFL WOULD BE 53-29 ATS 64.6%!!!

The reason is as I described in the body of this article. Noone wants to play these teams, in fact most will play the team they are facing! The truth is the odds-makers are going to give you more points, just to get action on this particular team, and if you don't believe it, then just look at the results!

CAUTION:  This has produced great results, and there is no guarantee it will produce the same results in the future. The NFL is constantly in flux and change, and what works today, is gone tomm. This sytem did not perform well prior to 2003-04, but has been money since. It is just one gauge in an arsenol that must be greater than that of the odds-makers to sustain a profit year after year!

Hopefully this article provides some insight on where the value is in the NFL, but there is so much more to consider besides what I have detailed here. Best of luck the rest of the season, and if I can help in any way, my picks, and writeups are archived here, and going forward if you like what you see, I'd be glad to help you win!

East

Mr East Past Articles

Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more

March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more

Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more

Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more

Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more

All Mr East Past Articles

More past picks...

All Mr East Past Picks