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Papajohns.com Bowl Preview
by: Matt Fargo Sports
Papajohns.com Bowl - Monday, December 29, 2008 3:00 PM ET
The Betting Numbers
Rutgers opened as a touchdown favorite over the Wolfpack and that number is holding tight a week later. Shopping around could get you a 1/2-point in either direction but don’t expect much of a move until gameday. There has been a move on the total as it opened at 51 and has gradually gone up to 53 in the majority of shops with even a couple 54’s available. It would not be surprising to see this one go up even more based on recent results from these two teams.
Series History
This is the first ever meeting between NC State and Rutgers.
The Teams
Both teams enter this game on significant winning streaks. The Wolfpack closed the season with four straight victories and with a 6-6 finish, it took everyone of those wins to become bowl eligible. NC State started the season getting drubbed on national television at South Carolina 34-0 and then snuck by William & Mary the next week. It then lost five of its next six games before winning out in November. NC State became the first team in ACC history to finish the season 4-0 in conference play after beginning at 0-4. This is the 24th bowl appearance for the Wolfpack who have not gone bowling since 2005.
It was a very similar season for Rutgers as well. The Scarlet Knights dropped five of their first six games with the lone victory coming against FCS team Morgan St. Three of those losses were by a touchdown or less so you knew this team was competing but just could not get over the hump. Rutgers finished with six straight victories and the final five came by an average of 29.4 ppg. The Scarlet Knights finished in a tie for second in the Big East with a 5-2 record with the two losses coming by a total of 10 points. This will be the fourth straight bowl appearance for Rutgers after going 27 years without.
Against the Numbers
It comes as no surprise that the slow starts and fast finishes led to some winnings on both sides. NC State finished the year going 9-2 against the number including spread wins in seven straight games to end the season. Even more impressive that were that all seven of those wins were as underdogs and the final four being outright victories. The nine spread wins were tied for the third most in the nation. Six of the 11 lined games went over the total including six of the final nine as the offense picked things up late.
Rutgers came into the season with some high expectations after compiling 26 wins over the last three years but it dropped its first three games against the number. The Scarlet Knights were a moneymaking machine after that however as they covered seven of their final eight games including five straight. Like the Wolfpack, the offense kicked it into gear and with that, the overs rolled in. Four of their final five games surpassed the total after five of the first six games stayed under the number.
The Matchup
The surging offense from NC State revolved around the emergence of quarterback Russell Wilson. He tossed an interception in his first start against Clemson but after that he tossed 16 touchdowns with no interceptions in his final eight games. Still, NC State finished just 89th in total offense and 80th in scoring offense despite averaging 30.2 ppg in its final five games. That offense will be tested against a strong Rutgers defense that finished 34th overall and 18th in scoring. It allowed 17 or fewer points in six of the last seven games.
While the Rutgers defense stiffened at the end of the year, the offense exploded. The Scarlet Knights scored more than 21 points only once in their first seven games but surpassed that with no problem in their final five games, averaging 46.2 ppg in that span. That output put Rutgers 41st in scoring offense and 40th in total offense. The Wolfpack picked up their defense, allowing 17 points or fewer in three of their last four games. But the unit was horrible enough early on for them to finish 81st in the nation in total defense.
Intangibles
One big thing to look at in bowl matchups is momentum and that looks to be a wash as both teams come into this game riding high. That could make the underdog worth a look. NC State will be making its first bowl appearance under the leadership of head coach Tom O’Brien, who simply does not lose in the postseason. He finished his tenure at Boston College with seven straight bowl wins. O'Brien was 8-0 against Rutgers when he coached at Boston College from 1997-2006.
Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles
2009 SEC (East) Preview
The SEC has long been considered the toughest conference in football and rightfully so. It has produced the last three National Champions, Florida twice ... read more
2009 Big XII (North) Conference Preview
As strong as the Big XII South is, the North is just the opposite. There are good teams within the division no doubt but it is unlikely that any team ... read more
2009 Big Ten Conference Preview
Many say that the Big Ten was in a down year in 2008 considering only five teams finished the season ranked in the top 50 in the national power ratings. ... read more
2009 ACC Coastal Preview
Like the ACC Atlantic, the ACC Coastal Division was up for grabs heading into the final weeks of the regular season. Virginia Tech, thanks to a favorable ... read more
2009 ACC Atlantic Preview
Last year the ACC Atlantic was as congested as Boston rush hour with all six teams finishing with a game of each other. Boston College ended up in the ... read more
All Matt Fargo Sports Past Articles
Matt Fargo Sports Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls Tuesday March 9, 2010 8:05 pm
The Bulls have lost four straight games, the last three coming at home. This is the final home game of this current homestand before a brutal roadtrip starts on Thursday at Orlando. Chicago knows it needs to come out of here with a win before it hits the road where it has been pretty ... read more
College Basketball
Providence Friars @ Seton Hall Pirates Tuesday March 9, 2010 7:00 pm
Providence and Seton Hall go right back after it after closing out the regular season. The Pirates won that game with ease as we cashed a ticket on it and we will go right back to the well here. The Pirates were favored by a point in that game so taking four points away for the home ... read more
College Basketball
Montana Grizzlies @ Northern Colorado Bears Tuesday March 9, 2010 6:30 pm
So exactly why is Montana favored here? It is obviously based on name alone and not by the quality of these two teams. Northern Colorado has had a sensational season yet no one has seemed to notice with the exception of one place. The Bears are the highest ranked team in the Big ... read more
College Basketball
Depaul Blue Demons @ South Florida Bulls Tuesday March 9, 2010 12:00 pm
This line opened at -6.5 and I would not be surprised to see it go up by game time. This is based on records and that people love the favorites in these games. I am a fan of momentum heading into these tournaments but we have to take a closer look at things before blindly betting ... read more
College Basketball
St. Mary's Gaels @ Gonzaga Bulldogs Monday March 8, 2010 9:00 pm
Gonzaga has had St. Mary’s number over the last two seasons as the Bulldogs have won all five meetings between the rival programs. That includes a home and home sweep this season as Gonzaga went off for 89 and 80 points in those two meetings on a combined shooting effort of ... read more
NBA Basketball
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves Monday March 8, 2010 8:05 pm
This is a big time contrarian play but one that the value is squarely on our side. I have gone against Dallas in each of its last three road games and have been burnt each time. The first two were because of fourth quarter comebacks and last time out, it was able to build a big early ... read more
College Basketball
William & Mary Tribe @ Old Dominion Monarchs Monday March 8, 2010 7:00 pm
I have been a fan of William & Mary a lot this season and have backed the Tribe numerous times but this is one time that I have to go against them as the matchups simply are not in their favor. This is obviously a big game for both sides as the winner gets the automatic bid to ... read more
College Basketball
Fairfield Stags @ Siena Saints Monday March 8, 2010 7:00 pm
Siena guns for its third straight MAAC Tournament Championship on its home floor. The Saints have made it to the final game without being very dominant and actually trailing at the half in the first two games of this tournament. They cannot afford to let that happen again against ... read more
College Basketball
Portland Pilots @ St. Mary's Gaels Sunday March 7, 2010 11:20 pm
St. Mary’s has been going from inside the NCAA Tournament bubble to outside the NCAA Tournament bubble for the last few weeks and I really do not see how the Gaels can be left out of the Big Dance. Currently they have a RPI of 44 which is very solid and the biggest argument ... read more
NBA Basketball
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons Sunday March 7, 2010 6:05 pm
Houston has to be favored in this games based on the overall record comparison of the Rockets and Pistons but I still think the value lies with the home team. Houston is coming off a win last night in Minnesota which moved it within two games of .500 on the road and that is certainly ... read more
All Matt Fargo Sports Past Picks
