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NFLX WEEK 3 RELATING TO REGULAR SEASON WEEK 1
by: Mr East
It is often called the most important game, and the only important game of the entire NFLX. Some coaches may agree, or disagree, but the NFLX week 3 is a dress rehersal for week 1, as the starters get a lot of minutes, and teams find out where they stand on both sides of the ball. I decided to take a look at 2 things, as it relates to what significance week 3 in the NFLX has on game one of the opening season, and also take a look at NFLX totals that are 40 or higher.
First, let's start with week 3 of the NFLX, and if it is a predictor of what will happen in week 1 of the regular season. This is not a lot of data, but what it does show, is their is a negative correlation to winning ATS in week 3 of the NFLX, vs winning in week 1 ATS.
Last year, in NFL week 1, there were 5 matchups, of teams that won ATS in week 3 of the NFLX, playing against teams that lost in week 3 of the NFLX ATS. The results show that the losers of week 3 of the NFLX ATS, that played against winners, won the ATS battle in week one by a 3-2 score or 60%. Going back to the 2007 season, losers prevailed once again in week 1, where they went 2-1 ATS, and similar results in 2006, as the losres prevailed 3-1 ATS. That shows 3 straight years, albeit very few games, where the losers came out in the money, with an overall win rate of 67% (8-4). This may be meaningless based on how few games, but something to watch going forward, and if nothing else, it says beware of putting a few sheckles on the week 3 NFLX ATS winner vs a loser in game 1.
Looking at NFLX totals, it is not very often you see them set at 40 or higher, as scoring is usually minimized. So is there value on any given game when the oddsmakers reach up and touch the 40 marker in NFLX games? There is apparently something to look at here. Games with a posted total of 40 or higher since 1996 in NFLX games have gone 58-45 to the UNDER which is 56.3%. Looking at strictly week 3 games, when the oddsmakers treat these games more like a regular season game, which they are not, that under percentage jumps to 58.5%.
Looks like something to put in your arsenol and at the very least, if you don't like the under in the totals set at 40+, it may be a good idea to stay away from the over!
I was #1 at his site in football a year ago, combining NCAAF with NFL, and 100.00 bettors took home over 13,000.00 in profits. If your looking for some help, the combo package is currently discounted, but will change without notice.
Wishing you the best in NFL & NCAAF this season!
EAST
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more



