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NFL: When The Worst becomes The Best!
by: Mr East
The NFL has many surprises, and I'm going to reveal a big one in this article. The mindset of the sports gambler is one of favorites, teams that score a bunch of points, and overs, when a good offense is on display, or better yet, when 2 offenses take the field. There is a certain comfort zone putting money on a team that performed at a high level the week before, or better yet, one that has performed at a high level for several weeks. So what happens in the mind of the bettor when scouring the lines with all the fresh thoughts of teams that have just run over an opponent, or one that was completely run over? The public loves the teams piling up the points, and will run far away from the teams that lost big the week before. So where is the value? It is on the team that took the worst beating the week before! Ever wonder what those players feel that just lost 41-10? How about the coaching staff? Most importantly how does the oddsmaker treat these teams, in what for the most part is an efficient market? The answer is they treat them, as they anticipate the general public would be thinking, and they need to give these teams a boost in the betting line, to even get someone remotely interested. That's when the market goes from efficient, and fair, to inefficient, and ready to exploit. So now that you have the premise, and the mindsets of all who matter, from coaches, to players, to oddsmakers, to betting public, let's see if the premise varifies. Here are the rules of a game we will play on.
1) Play on the team that lost by the most points in an NFL game the week before, the very next time they play. That means if they have a bye, you still play on them in their next game.
2) If multiple teams are all losers by the most points play on every team that qualifies.
EXAMPLE: If 2 teams both lost by the most points in week 4, then play on them both in week 5.
So we have a 1 condition premise (NO BACKFITTING) and the reults over the last 3 years in the NFL is an amazing 35-13-1 ATS!!!! or 72.92%!!! I doubt you will find a single condition easy system, that is based on logic, with 50 plays in the data base, covering 3 seasons. If you have followed my articles in sports wagering, you will soon see what I do. I look for inefficiencies in an otherwise efficient market. I spend 8,10, or more hours per day, because that is what it takes to be successful. The whole point of gambling is to find logical situations, that put you in a spot to have a better chance of winning a particular game than losing. There is so much more to account for though, that goes into the process, but rest assured, when you play something that I put out there, it has passed the test of a game that is exploiting an efficient market, that has become vulnerable to a logical inefficiency.
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
WNBA Basketball
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
MLB Baseball
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
