NFL WEEK ONE WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW...

by: Mr East

Well here we are, approaching mid August, and once again the footballs are in the air. While the weather may still be hot and sticky, it is a reminder that summer is clinging to its last gasps, and soon the fall chill will take over, and you'll hear the calls, "Are you ready for some football?" It all begins with the NFLX, week one, the diehard football junkie, awaiting his frst fix. Many bypass these games, but there is money to be had, if you do your homework, and pick your spots, but for those that feel more comfortable, in the games that count on the schedule, then let's take a look at a developing trend for week 1 of the NFL regular season.

Who has the advantage in the early going, is it the offense or defense? recent trends say that teams that are projected to score with anticipated competent offenses, might not be so competent in week 1, as sometimes the offenses need a bit of time to reach their potential. What this theory has done, is expose the books to the higher totals, as they tend to stay below the posted number. If you consider a typical NFL game is going to score 43 points, and the offensive timing isn't quite there yet in week 1, then when the posted totals reach 43 or higher, it would seem to have some merits, in week 1 to play against them reaching that expectation. So with that being the theory, let's look back and put it to the test.

Going back 6 years to the '03 through '08 seasons, it certainly looks like a winning formula. There have been 41 opening day totals that closed at 43 or higher, and the outcome is very positive to the under as 28 of 41 have failed to reach the offensive expectations presented by the oddsmakers. That translates into 68.3% winners, and for a $100.00 bettor, a nice profit of $1,370.00 with a handsome ROI of 30.4%.

certainly it is noteworthy that recent trends aren't indicitive of future results, but it is clear a pattern has emerged, and if nothing else, the under is something to look at in these types of offerings.

If your seeking some assistance for NFL & NCAAF just look at the leaderboards for overall football, and you won't find any better than what I have been able to do exploiting market inefficiencies.

Best of luck to you this season!

EAST 

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