NCAAF SATURDAY VICTORY CIGAR ON TOBACCO ROAD (Sat 12PM)
MREASt has a big 5***** BOMB in ACC play and he will continue his 60% rampage on the books with this winner. Get MREAST'S full Saturday card chock full of premium winners in all sports.
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MREAST NCAAF SATURDAY BOOKIE BUSTER (Sat 12PM)
MREAST has completed 12 weeks of the NCAAF season at 60%. He has a big winner here, and is making a big run to his Bowl games that will clcik at an even higher rate!
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NFL TOTALS RESEARCH AND SYSTEM
by: Mr East
While it is very infrequent you can sift through 20 years of data and come up with something that shows a very consistent high frequency of winning, and is based on logic, not coincidence. I'd like to share my thoughts on one such discovery, and it has proven it's validity over time. I guess the best place to start is with the mindset of both the oddsmakers, and the betting public they deal with. Let's start with the betting public. It's no secret that the typical sports gambler likes to play the over when choosing a position on an NFL game total. It is partly based on psychology. That psychology perhaps has been felt by you when making such a decision. There is nothing better than watching a game that you have bet the over on, and midway through the 3rd quarter, the game goes soaring over the total, and your an instant winner. By the same token, there is nothing worse, watching a game where you have bet the under, and midway through the 3rd quarter you watch your bet go up in flames. Been there? The lasting impression plays on the psychology of the bettor. The second caveat, is those overtime games. It makes a winner out of a bad over bet, and a loser out of a good under bet. Been there? We all have. So now we look into the oddsmakers mind. We have an over crazed consensus of gamblers when it comes to totals, and that can only mean one thing. When we get a game total that is posted in only about 5.1% of all NFL games over the last 20 years, those pitting two teams that put a lot of points on the board, there is only one thing to do. Pad the total upward, because the betting public, that likes the over, is going to tag the game as high scoring, and will fear the under. So how do we prove this theory? There is only one way. Isolate the data of games where just 5% of all games fall into this catergory, do the research, and make your conclusion, that the premise is a solid one. That 5% mark is reached when the closing total on a game reaches 47.5 or higher. While this system works for the last 20 years, the games with posted totals of 47.5 or higher from 1988-1995 totals just 30. To put that in perspective there was 44 games in 2004 alone, so I'm going to use numbers from 1996 forward. Totals of 47.5 or higher have gone under to an ATS record of 132-99 or 57.1%. There is however evidence to believe, and this is just theory, I'll let you decide what you choose to believe, that the time of year plays a factor in this as well. This could simply be coincidence, but I tend to believe the following theory lends credence to the fact that timing is a mitigating factor to the performance at certain times of year, that enhance the value here. Let me explain, using the data for support. The beginning of the season (weeks 1-4), teams are not in full stride offensively. New players, perhaps a new system, getting in sync, may make an offense that is ultimately a scoring machine, show some signs of rust, and not performing at peak level yet. Once we reach weeks 5-9, any offense that has a high caliber propensity for scoring is going to be doing so during this stretch of the season, and in particular if you add in weather factors. Cool weather is made for football, and this is prime football weather pretty much throughout the country for games played outdoors. Then we reach week 10 and on. Injuries usually become a factor, and weather begins to change for the wors in many locations, and those offenses that were clicking, may still be scoring, but the rate begins to decline, or become less consistent. The data supports this perfectly. If you played every under in the NFL during weeks 1-4 since 1996 you would be 24-15 ATS 61.5%. If you played every under over the same period from weeks 10-17 you would be 73-44 ATS 62.4. Combing weeks 1-4 with weeks 10-17 gives you a final toatl of 97-59 ATS or 62.2%!!!! I don't know about you, but those are some pretty strong numbers. If you played these same games in weeks 5-9 your final results would be 26-35 ATS or 42.6%. So the numbers support my above theory, but is it coincidence? It may well be, but it just seems to be an extraordinary coincidence that all the bad weeks run back-to-back for 5 consecutive weeks. If you turn the system around and play the OVER in weeks 5-9 then your left with 132-85 or just about 61% winners. Playing the system as follows: under in weeks 1-4, over in weeks 5-9, and under in weeks 10-17, the 20 year result is 16 winning years, 2 losing years, and 2 breakeven years, so you would avoid a losing season in the NFL 90% of the time. How many could claim that over 20 years? I won't tell you how to play this, because if the weeks 5-9 are just a coincidence, then I am guilty of backfitting data to fit a better system, which is what you see so often when someone posts a system, which immediately downgrades the value. If you believe the logic, then play it to its fullest potential at 62.1%. If you just want to play under all season, then 20 years worth of 57.1% is certainly huge. You make the call!!!!
Mr East Past Articles
Mr. East's Weekly Look at NCAA-F Title Chasers
The Turkeys will soon be on the table, and that only means one thing. The college football season is winding down, and teams are jockeying for position, ... read more
Where the Value is in NCAA Basketball
Has parity snuck down to the College Basketball level now? Do we have the gap between top to bottom in all conferences that shows, the difference is not ... read more
Mr. East's Weekly Look at NCAAF Title Chasers
It has been another interesting week to say the least in college football. Penn St. bit the dust in Iowa City, and the BCS unbeatens are down to Texas ... read more
The Decline of Home-Field Advantage in the NFL
If you go back in the NFL with the inception of Monday Night Football, the rage with the novelty was the home underdog, which seemed to present blind ... read more
MREAST'S WEEKLY LOOK AT NCAAF TITLE CHASERS
What a game between Texas and Texas Tech. It was a nearly impossible spot for Texas, having played 3 undefeated teams in a row, and heading to Lubbock ... read more
Mr East Recent Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:30 pm
This is a huge division rivalry game, that usually turns out being played very physical and ugly. The Pistons have spent most of the early part of the season on the road, as they have played only 3 home games thus far. The one home game worth noting was a similar game vs the Celtics ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Football
Ball State Cardinals @ Central Michigan Chippewas Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
The Ball St. Cardinals are flirting with an unbeaten season, and I don't think it comes to an end here. C. Michigan is an average team with a very misleading record. The Chippewa's have won 6 straight, and come in 8-2 on the season. The fact is they have won 5 games by 3 points or ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Ball State Cardinals @ Butler Bulldogs Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
Butler finsihed their season 30-4 last season. Butler plays a very disiplined style of basketball, with a defensive half-court mindset. That system must be learned a new, as all 5 starters from that 30-4 team are now gone. The Bulldogs have some good recruits, and one returning top ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NBA Basketball
Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:30 pm
Not sure why, but the odds-makers keep posting the Golden St. Warriors in a range that they play over at home, against everyone. When the Warriors are home they simply dictate the tempo, and their 5 home dates this season have averaged 213.6ppg. This is nothing new, as the Warriors ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Nevada Wolf Pack @ San Diego Toreros Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:00 pm
I like the idea of taking dogs, that in my opinion are the better team, and getting points. San Diego gained late noteriety with NCAA win vs Uconn, so they will be over-priced early. nevada lost a couple key players, but that's the case every season, this is a program that gets good ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Football
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Kent State Golden Flashes Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
The kent offense is very one-dimensional, and it all falls in the hands of Julian Edelman. Edelman is not only the QB with a big arm, he is the top running back for the Golden Flashes, and went over the 1,000 yard mark on the season last week vs Temple. The one thing Edelman is guilty ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Cornell Big Red @ St John's Red Storm Monday November 17, 2008 9:30 pm
The Preseason NIT Tips off in Beantown Tonight, and the red Storm from St. John's takes on the Big Red from Cornell. Cornell made a trip to the Big Dance last season by running the table in the Ivy League, and winning 22 games. What is missing from Cornell's 22 win team from a year ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NBA Basketball
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Monday November 17, 2008 9:00 pm
The Utah Jazz seem to get no respect from the odds-makers, when they are playing at home. They have opened the season with a 4-0 mark at home, and finsihed last season with a 27-1 mark at home in their last 28 regular season games. That brings the mark to 31-1 in their last 32, with ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
NFL Football
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Monday November 17, 2008 8:35 pm
I'll start this by saying I have examined extensively the weather forecast in Buffalo, and the weather will not be a factor in this game. many here the nmention of the word snow, and the total begins to dive. A game that opened at 42.5 is as of this writing 40.5, and falling. the ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East
College Basketball
Miami Ohio Redhawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers Monday November 17, 2008 7:00 pm
The Peterson Events Center, and the Pitt Panthers play host to the Miami of Ohio Redhawks tonight, and most likely without the services of Gilbert Brown, nursing an injury. Pittsburgh is definately a Final 4 candidate, especially with a healthy lavance Fields in the lineup, but these ... read more
Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East