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NFL PRESEASON SYSTEM
by: Mr East
Many shy away from the NFL-X for the simple reason that since the games don't count they are too unpredictable. I have to admit, I'm not one that subscribes to that philosophy, if there is a pointspread issued, then certain things will always show value along the way. I've decided to share some very hard and fast systems and thoeries, that have been tried and true for many years, and if you decide to play along, you can cash as well. Let's start with home dogs. Home dogs always seem to present interest, and value, and thee certainly is clear evidence that they wear an ultra glean during the NFL-X. Home dogs have been 75-48 ATS over the past 12 seasons, or 61%, certainly a percentage most anyone would grab, and be happy with. I've gone a bit further however. The AFC has been the better conference the past decade or so, and with it has come a 32-16 ATS mark in the NFL-X. The NFC has also done it's part in cashing winners at 43-32. There s another component to home dogs,and that s the totals in those games. They have gone under at a 72-50 mark, good for 59% as well. So history says, home dogs are 61% and unders are 59%, looks like a blind man could make a ton of money here,but let's not be blind, let's open our eyes to even greater value! There are 3 sets of games, that need to be extracted from these totals, with very logical reasoning (not backfitted unrelated meaning), big difference. The only game that starters play the bulk of the game in NFL-X is week 3. so does that make a difference to the advantage of the home dog? The obviously lesser team? You bet it does! Home dogs in week 3 are just 18-17 ATS, a virtual coin flip! The 2nd group of games are the Hall of Fame home dogs. They aren't really playing at home, but each year, the AFC, and NFC alternate hosting the game in Canton, and these become part of the home dog statstics, so we eliminate them as well. The 3rd group of games are those played by the Giants vs the Jets. Since both play every year, and both play in the same staidium, is there really a home dog? No, but they appear in the statistics as such. So you have to agree, these are logcal, meaningful groups of games, that are being extracted for the right reasons. So where does that leave us? Extracting those games, the AFC is 25-7 ATS as a home dog the last 12 years or 78.1%!!!! Th NFC is 32-24 or 57%, combined 57-31 or 65%!!!!! The AFC has played 20-11 UNDER after the extracions, and the NFC 33-21 UNDER, for a combined 53-32, or 62% UNDERS!!!! So there is where the NFL-X value lies. So now in looking at these trends, and reducing them to the most recent history (this decade 7 years), something about as valuable, as valuable gets emerges. I am not an advocate of parlays. Let me repeat I AM NOT AN ADVOCATE OF PARLAYS!!!!! BUT...BUT....BUT, when you have 2 elements within the same game connecting at 65% and 62% don't you think there might be some value to a parlay? Well there is some huge value! The past 7 years if you parlayed the home dogs and under (excluding of course week 3, HOF game, and NY vs NY), your parlays would be 28-26 or 52% winners!!!! Have you ever seen a parlay system with over 50 games in the database, that wins over 50% of the time? Most don't hit that on straight ATS bets, here is a parlay system that has won 52% of the time wih 54 games in the database. Most systems erode over time, this one has gotten better. The last 7 years home dogs, less th extractions are 37-13 ATS 74%!!!! UNDERS same rules, 36-15-3 70.6%. Combined 73-28 72.3%!!! Not going to find to many 100+ game systems with over 100 games played at over 72%!!! The expected winning percentage of a parlay with one side being a 74% chance winner and the other being a 71% chance winner is calculated as follows:.74 x .71 = .5254 The expected outcome is winning 52.54% of all parlays. The actual outcome has been 28-26 or 52%!!! Exactly as a math model would forecast!!!!ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?My baseball picks and NFL-X picks have been off the charts in recent weeks, get on board with my early bird special in NFL at just 399.00 (reg. 599.00) and NCAA Football also available for a short time for just 399.00 as well. Last year my strong plays in the NFL went 38-25 or hit 60.3%!! (4 and 5 unit plays), and all total plays hit 60%!!
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun Sunday May 20, 2012 5:00 pm
This is based on a moneyline situation that has close to 100 games in it, and has won 85% of the time, which puts the EV in this game very high, play Connecticut on the moneyline. ... read more
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Sunday May 20, 2012 4:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
This game fits a 62-29-1 ATS situation that has a subset that is 18-4 ATS and another that is 9-0-1 ATS, and the play on team is Miami. ... read more
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies Sunday May 20, 2012 3:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Sunday May 20, 2012 2:20 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 20, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Sunday May 20, 2012 1:35 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more


