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NFL Juggernauts and Fading Has Beens

by: Jim Feist

Looking at NFL in 2011, it's clear that, despite the unbeaten Packers, parity has returned. Look at teams that were recent doormats who are playing well: Lions, Bills, Bengals, Texans, 49ers and Broncos. Even the Panthers and Dolphins have been competitive, with shots at respectable seasons after bad starts.
 
The season is also littered with flops. The Vikings, Chargers, Bucs and Colts were expected to be better and but were out of it at the halfway point of the season. The Rams had high hopes but have disappointed, and even the mighty Patriots are a huge postseason question mark with the 32nd ranked defense. The same Pats' team that was 14-2 a year ago.
 
The Chargers have been big flops after a 4-1 start, failing to cover in 6 straight, all losses. The Colts, too, have been money-burners, becoming the first team since 2007 to be a 20-point underdog last week.  They covered, despite trailing 31-3.
 
Oddsmakers make adjustments on teams all during the season, such as two years ago when the Saints and Colts started red hot. After starting 6-0 SU/ATS, the Saints went 2-8 ATS to end the regular season, often as a double digit favorite. That's what can happen to public teams, either popular teams or ones with a flashy offense like the 2009 Saints and 2007 Patriots.
 
This season all eyes are on Green Bay to not only repeat as champs but to run the table.  That's exciting, but it also overshadows the fact that the NFL is very much competitively balanced and parity driven.
   
Normally we are at the time of the pro football campaign where some teams have mentally and physically packed in the season. It's been a lost season or one with higher expectations and players, especially ones on poorly coached teams, can just go through the motions. That can show up on the scoreboard and at the wagering window.
  
The 49ers were in that group a year ago at this time, with the heat on Mike Singletary in what was supposed to be a better season. Fast forward one year and San Francisco is completely different, winning the division under new coach Jim Harbaugh, starting 10-2 straight up and 10-1-1 against the number.  There will be not late season letdown with this motivated group as it must be fun for all of them to come to work.
 
That's not the case with all teams, however. The Rams have been a disaster, on a recent 2-10 ATS run. It’s hard to believe that back in August this team went from 45-to-1 to win the Super Bowl to 40-to-1. Somebody put some dough on them to win it all! Now that ticket might as well be used for a Christmas fire to keep warm by.
 
It’s also hard to believe they were favorite in back to back games recently, yet lost to Seattle (24-7) and Arizona (23-20), both at home. You have to wonder when Jacksonville might pack it in after firing their head coach, Jack Del Rio. There was a lot of emotion on Monday night football for their new head coach, but the Jags got steamrolled by the Chargers, 38-14. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker is the interim coach and he has added an uptempo offense with rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, not a bad idea.
 
What really stood out, though, was injuries to the Jaguars’ cornerback corps were exploited by veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, who threw three touchdown passes. Cornerbacks Rashean Mathis, Derek Cox and William Middleton are on injured reserve with knee injuries. So the Jaguars started Ashton Youboty and undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland. Rivers torched Rutland once and twice victimized Youboty, who was then pulled for Morgan Trent, who signed with the team last week!
  
Teams that need to be watched closely as on the bubble for packing it in might be the Browns, Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals, Redskins and Bucs. Two years ago the Jaguars melted down in a 0-4 SU/ATS finish, and last season Carolina finished 1-5 SU/ATS. Three years ago the Raiders (2-3 SU/ATS run), Rams (0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS) and Jaguars (1-5 SU/ATS) finished up poorly, teams that clearly weren't giving 100%. The Rams lost their last nine games under Jim Haslett, their second coach of the 2008 season, getting outscored 216-73.
     
2007 was unique for powerhouses, with the Packers and Cowboys starting 10-1 and the Patriots going 16-0. You may recall the 4-7 Ravens dominating the 11-0 Pats on Monday night as a +19 dog, playing with fire before a last second 27-24 defeat. The 2007 Eagles failed to make the playoffs or have a winning record, but as a +24 dog they gave the unbeaten Pats all they could handle. New England needed a late TD to survive 31-28. "It was the most complete game we played all year," Eagles LB Omar Gaither said. Offensive lineman Shawn Andrews added, "People built them up to be Goliath. At the same time, a lot of people made us out to be a 24-point spread, and we know they're not that much better than us."
  
Pro players have pride and know the score. Taking out their frustrations on a powerhouse team is not uncommon. The good teams aren't that much better from year to year than bad ones. Parity and the salary cap have leveled the playing field and schedules are longer, all of which makes it that much harder to dominate.
  
The 1962 Green Bay Packers enjoyed a 10-0 start on the way to a 13-1 season, ending in a 16-7 win in the championship game over the Giants as one of Vince Lombardi's best teams. They came close to running the table, except for a surprising Thanksgiving Day loss to Detroit, 26-14 (trailing 26-0 to the fired up Lions). Even NFL David's can be gunning for Goliath this time of the season – if they haven't already packed it in.

Jim Feist Past Articles

Lean Toward Big Dogs More than Big Chalk
by Jim Feist April and May means that many novice sports bettors may look at the matchups and lean toward ace pitchers and lay the big price. But let ... read more

Baseball Hot and Cold Starts
More than any other sport, baseball is a game of patience. It's not how you start, but where you finish, and with a 162-game regular season, there is ... read more

NBA Stretch Run: The Best of the East
It's been a long haul, even in this abbreviated 66-game NBA regular season, but the playoffs are just around the corner. So who wins the NBA title? The ... read more

Some NBA Teams Pack It In Late
There are three more weeks to go in the NBA regular season. This means there are professional athletes in the NBA who will be going on vacation in a month, ... read more

Tourney Matchup Tips
It's the final stretch of a long college basketball season. There are better teams, tougher matchups, and defensive intensity. It's a good time of the ... read more

All Jim Feist Past Articles

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