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NCAAF HOMECOMING PLAY OR FADE?

by: Mr East

There is always a lot of talk about how Homecoming is a big game on teams schedule, and how motivated they will be to win on what is perhaps the most exciting day on the home schedule, for fans, and players, as well as family, and alums. Truthfully, it is a nightmare for the coaches, as they try to clear the path of distractions in the players minds from Saturday to Saturday, but this is one unavoidable obstacle. So what is the truth about Homecoming in NCAAF? Does it inspire a team to a better performance in front of friends, families, students, etc., or is it a distraction, that just ends in disappointment. Well, here is what has happened so far this year, and since there is only 35 games worth of data, don't think that this is the "holy grail" of sports betting, but just another thought to consider when your panning through the card this weekend preparing to lay down your hard earned cash.

This is one of the biggest Homecoming weekends in football, right in the middle of the season, when the weather in most places is still good, and before the weather starts to turn ugly as we head toward late fall. Do the odds-makers put a tax on teams that are hosting a game during Homecoming weekend? Are the lines inflated toward the home team? Here is the results, that indicate there "might" be something to this, but the fool-proof conclusion can't be clear and completely drawn until the sample size becomes relevant.

This year teams hosting Homecoming games, are a horrible 12-23 ATS or covering just 34.3% of the time!!! That certainly gets my attention to do more work in this area, as their may be some "fade alert" material here, or it could just be the product of not enough games yet, and it will level off. I did some homework and see that at least 18 teams that will be hosting a Homecoming game this weekend. I will put the list here, and then next week, we can add to the 12-23 ATS mark whatever transpires this weekend, and the database of games will rise to 53, still not enough, but getting closer to confidence if a high "fade" ATS number maintains itself.

Here are the games this weekend (I may have missed some but this is what I came up with)

UAB

UCLA

KY

S. FLA

LOUISVILLE

WASH

BUFF

NAVY

N'WERN

OKLA

OKLA ST.

RUTGERS

UL MONROE

NEVADA

DUKE

GEO

PENN ST

N. ILL

Best of luck this weekend, and if your having difficulty, read my past game results, and if I can help, you know how to reach me

EAST

Mr East Past Articles

Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more

March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more

Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more

Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more

Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more

All Mr East Past Articles

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